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In The $$$MONEY$$$

Discussion in 'Men's Economics' started by Michael Scally MD, Aug 14, 2011.

  1. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

  2. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    Re: I Am In The $$$MONEY$$$

    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0]How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio - YouTube[/ame]
     
    dnoyez and smiles like this.
  3. smiles

    smiles Member

    Re: I Am In The $$$MONEY$$$

    that was a really good video...:goodpost:
     
  4. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    Re: I Am In The $$$MONEY$$$

    Common Biotech-Newbie Mistakes

    Drug programs:

    1. “If a drug does something notable in animals, it must be safe and effective for humans.”

    2. “If a drug from the same class succeeds, it means my company’s drug will succeed too.”

    3. “If a drug with the same mechanism of action succeeds, it means my company’s drug will succeed too.”


    Dealings with the FDA:

    4. “If a drug has Fast Track status, it means FDA approval is very likely.”

    5. “If a drug has a Priority Review, it means FDA approval is almost certain.”

    6. “If a drug has an Expanded Access program, it must be safe and effective, so the FDA will obviously approve it.”

    7. “If a company has a meeting with FDA staffers and does not issue a negative press release, it means the FDA agrees with everything the company is doing.”


    Behavior of company management:

    8. “If the CEO says a company is talking to partners, it means a partnership is imminent.”

    9. “If a company goes into a period of radio silence, it means they are negotiating a big partnership deal or buyout.”

    10. “If an FDA application is started on a rolling basis pending the completion of clinical data, it means the data are positive. The company would not waste so many man-hours of work on the submission if it weren’t.”

    11. “If a company is preparing for a launch—e.g. by advertising for sales reps—it means their drug will surely be approved.”

    12. “If a company holds an investor conference call on a different day of the week (or a different time of day) from prior conference calls, it means a hugely bullish announcement is coming!”


    Miscellaneous:

    13. “If a former executive from Big Pharma joins a small biotech company, it means the small company must be a winner!”

    14. “If the company’s Scientific Advisory Board has one or two famous individuals, it means the company’s drug candidates must work. These people would not align themselves with a failure!”

    15. “If Rodman & Renshaw issues a positive opinion on a company, it means the company’s prospects must be bright.”

    16. “If a well known investor or hedge fund owns shares, it means the company will surely succeed.”

    17. “If a small biotech company is located in the same town as a Big Pharma, it must be a top candidate for a buyout.”

    18. “If knowledgeable posters are bashing a stock, it means they are trying to ‘accumulate’ shares, so I should increase my holding!”

    Statistics:

    19. "If the trial wasn't halted for futility at the interim the trial must be a success."

    20. "If the trial is 'running long' the trial must be a success."

    21. "If my company has data from even a small (or post hoc) ph i or ph ii then it hugely outweighs the general fact that drugs in similar indications (or using related MOAs or ...) have a very high failure rate in ph iii."
     
    twistulikepretzel and smiles like this.
  5. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    twistulikepretzel and smiles like this.
  6. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    Re: I Am In The $$$MONEY$$$

    THE SECRET SCIENCE OF STOCK SYMBOLS
    The Secret Science of Stock Symbols : The New Yorker

     
  7. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

  8. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

  9. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

  10. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

  11. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    32nd J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
    http://jpmorgan.metameetings.com/confbook/healthcare14/home.php

    ... is the largest and most informative healthcare investment symposium in the industry which brings together global industry leaders, emerging fast-growth companies, innovative technology creators, globally minded service provicers, and members of the investment community.

    This year we expect more than 300 companies, both public and private, to deliver presentations to more than 4,000 investors. The format of this conference consists of multiple half-hour public company presentation tracks.

    In this website, you can:

    Listen to live and on-demand webcasts, starting on January 13, 2014.

    Access presenting companies' information:
    Speakers' biographies and photos
    Company descriptions
    Bloomberg.com data
    Company website by clicking on their URL.
     
  12. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    FirstWord Lists – The Drugs That Will Shape 2014
    FirstWord Lists – The drugs that will shape 2014 - FirstWord Pharma

    • Sovaldi – Hepatitis C (Gilead Sciences)
    • Copaxone – multiple sclerosis (Teva)
    • Kadcyla/Perjeta – HER2-positive breast cancer (Roche)
    • Obeticholic acid (OCA) – Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (Intercept Pharmaceuticals)
    • Alirocumab (Regeneron Pharmaceuticals/Sanofi) and evolocumab (Amgen) – dyslipidaemia
    • Nivolumab (Bristol-Myers Squibb), MK-3475 (Merck & Co.) and MPDL3280A (Roche) – melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer and renal cancer
    • Imbruvica – Mantle cell lymphoma and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (Johnson & Johnson/Pharmacyclics)
    • VX-809 (with Kalydeco) – Cystic fibrosis (Vertex Pharmaceuticals)
    • Januvia – diabetes (Merck & Co.)
    • Palbociclib – breast cancer (Pfizer)
     
  13. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    US Biotech IPO fever stokes bubble fears
    US Biotech IPO fever stokes bubble fears - FT.com

    The fastest start to a year for US biotech initial public offerings is stoking fears of a bubble amid concerns investors are taking risks on companies at the earliest stage of medical research.

    Another eight biotech companies raised a combined $502m in US listings last week, setting a weekly record for the sector and continuing a boom that has seen the Nasdaq biotech index rise more than two-thirds in the past year.

    However, fears of overheating are growing as companies come to market at an early stage of drug development when failures are high – and in one case without the usual restrictions that bar existing owners from making a quick profit on IPOs.

    The recent listing of Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, which raised $90m in late January and saw its shares surge 207 per cent on its first day of trading, is becoming a focal point for concerns.

    The Massachusetts-based company has yet to enter clinical trials for the liver disease and cancers it seeks to treat, which typically means it has a less than 5 per cent chance of one day getting a drug to market, according to industry analysts.

    In its prospectus, the company said that it would not make majority shareholders agree to long-term restrictions on their entire holdings. But in most IPOs, these so-called “lock-ups” are a common feature, designed to align the interests of existing and new investors.

    “I’ve never seen an IPO in my career where the existing [majority] shareholders?.?.?.?WERE NOT SUBJECT TO A LOCK-UP,” said one senior capital markets expert, who added that other companies planning IPOs have since inquired about following Dicerna’s example.

    Michael Zeidel, a partner at Skadden Arps, said: “A 180-day lock-up is one of those check-the-box provisions for investors.”

    Shares in Dicerna have dropped 30 per cent from its first-day closing price though it is not clear if its main investors, including the venture capital arm of GlaxoSmithKline, have sold eligible portions of their holdings.

    The prospectus warned that about 7 per cent of existing shares could be immediately sold and 93 per cent within 90 days. “The sale of a significant number of our shares may cause the market price of our common stock to drop significantly,” it said.

    A person close to the transaction, which was underwritten by Jefferies, Baird and Stifel, defended the arrangement: “What makes this situation unique is that insiders ended up buying about 50 per cent of the offering, so there was a real shortage of stock to go around and we figured not having a lock-up would facilitate after-market liquidity.”

    Investors have been attracted to the biotech sector by a fresh wave of scientific innovation and hopes that some of the latest market entrants can emulate the success of companies such as Biogen Idec, Gilead and Amgen, which have grown into multibillion-dollar drugmakers.

    But while new IPOs have kept coming at a ferocious pace, there are signs that investor appetite may be weakening. Of the 14 companies to list this year, six are currently trading below their issue price. “I think the IPOs are a little stretched,” said Brian Skorney, an analyst at Baird.

    John Carroll, editor of industry newsletter FierceBiotech, said: “The investment community still has enough appetite for risk to send a select group of these new IPOs over the range, but?.?.?.?they’re getting choosy.

    “Inevitably, you’ll see more high-risk IPOs without a good story to tell come along to see if they can make it through this window, and it will get harder. When the inevitable crunch comes, it will be painful.”

    The boom has so far been concentrated in the US, with several European companies, including Oxford Immunotec and GW Pharmaceuticals of the UK, crossing the Atlantic to join Nasdaq. UniQure, a Dutch gene therapy specialist, was among last week’s crop of US IPOs, raising $81.9m.

    However, European markets could be about to catch the biotech bug. Circassia, a UK company developing allergy cures, last week announced London’s biggest IPO in the sector for years.
     
  14. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    China Demand Still Buoys Global Producers
    Despite China's slowing economy, its appetite for goods and commodities from Africa to Asia are holding up
    China Demand Still Buoys Global Producers - WSJ.com

    Leafy dried tobacco, stacked in a Zimbabwe auction hall, offers a glimpse of how China's resilient global demand has spared many suppliers—even as investors flee emerging markets on fears of the Asian giant's ebbing appetite.

    Last year, Zimbabwe auctioned off one-third of its tobacco crop to its biggest customer, China, bringing in about $700 million overall to the cash-starved southern African economy. This month, the government is opening its annual tobacco auctions earlier than usual, anticipating that an even larger crop and sustained Chinese demand will earn it as much as $1 billion, said Zimbabwe's Tobacco Industry & Marketing Board.

    "When times are great people smoke more. When times are difficult people smoke more," said Adam Molai, executive chairman of Savanna Tobacco, a Zimbabwean cigarette maker. "There are a lot of people in China to smoke more."

    From southern Africa to southern Asia, investors have soured on many commodity-rich emerging markets boosted in the past by China's ravenous appetite for what is grown from the soil or extracted from the mines. But so far, a slowing China hasn't hurt its suppliers much.

    That is because massive Chinese demand hasn't significantly weakened and many emerging economies now have their own consumers to help pick up any slack. The global market jitters, economists and executives say, reflect less an actual falloff in China's appetite and more a bet that China's growth will continue to taper off.

    "People are mistaking slowing headline growth with the real impact of GDP. It's not game over," said Charles Robertson, chief economist for investment bank Renaissance Capital. "The Chinese growth story is still decent even if the percentage number is slower."

    As investors have fled emerging markets around the world recently—also spurted on by the U.S. Federal Reserve's diminished bond-buying program—they have punished some vital Chinese suppliers, such as Indonesia and South Africa. Their currencies, the rupiah and the rand, have lost a quarter of their value against the U.S. dollar in the past year.

    Investors are worried China's slower growth will sap demand for Indonesia's coal, nickel and rubber and South Africa's chromium, manganese and platinum.

    China's economy is indeed cooling. The economy expanded 7.7% last year, the government said, the same rate as 2012 and down from 9.3% in 2011. Some analysts are ratcheting back growth forecasts for 2014 to the low 7%s, believing the government could tighten interest rates to check rising debt.

    And the rush to produce for China's economy has created more supply, such as new iron-ore mines in Australia and big nickel expansions in Indonesia. That new supply is also weighing on prices. The value for iron ore, copper and nickel has fallen.

    The prospect for sluggish Chinese car sales, fewer new apartment buildings and diminished appetite for gadgets could further soften metals demand.

    So far, though, demand for metals and minerals generally has held up—despite the slightly slower Chinese growth rates. China's iron-ore imports totaled 73.4 million tons in December, close to the record a month earlier and up almost a fifth from the beginning of 2013.

    Thanks in part to demand for its minerals and base metals, South Africa's trade balance swung to a surplus in November on increased exports to Asia and Africa, and widened further in December. Africa's trade with China rose to $210 billion last year, a 6% increase over 2012, according to South Africa's Standard Bank.

    "The narrative that suggests a slowing China completely erodes its ties with Africa is flawed," said Simon Freemantle, a Standard Bank economist. "China's appetite for African commodities is robust."

    China's economy—now second largest after the U.S.—won't be sated for years to come, said Nev Power, chief executive of Fortescue Metals Group Ltd FMG.AU +1.24% , an Australian iron-ore miner. He sees continued migration to the cities from China's still densely populated countryside fueling demand new infrastructure, factories and housing to accommodate the rural arrivals.

    "There is never any shortage of bears on China, but you can only look at what has actually happened to date," Mr. Power said.

    That thinking has led some corporate boardrooms to defy market signals. Australia-based Rio Tinto, one of the world's largest producers of iron ore, is planning to increase production by nearly a quarter by 2017, based largely on its outlook for China. It estimates Chinese demand for steel rose 7.5% last year compared with 2.2% the year earlier.

    China isn't cutting back on mineral-rich Africa, either. In September, state-owned China Power Investment Corp. signed a $6 billion deal to mine bauxite in Guinea, which holds up to half of the world's reserves of the aluminum ingredient.

    Daniel Tirta Kristiadi, chief operating officer of PT Kirana Megatara, an Indonesian rubber exporter, is less optimistic that China's auto industry can keep pace amid the country's slowing overall growth. "Eventually it will reduce demand for rubber," he said.

    China's car demand has fueled demand for crude oil in Africa, as tens of millions of Chinese citizens adopt trappings of a middle-class lifestyle.

    The same dynamic, rising consumer demand in Africa, is helping parts of the continent prepare for slowing growth in China.

    Angola, Africa's second-biggest oil producer, sells 40% of the 1.8 million barrels it pumps every day to China. Officials say steady demand will push production up 10% by next year. But a nascent Angolan consumer class is helping drive economic growth in the country that the International Monetary Fund says will reach 6.3% this year, up from 5.6% in 2012.

    "People have aspirations, and some spending money," said Gustavo Fontes, Angola director for the Brazilian conglomerate Odebrecht SA, which recently opened a chain of 31 supermarkets to reach those new consumers.

    Further north, the West African nation of Ghana is looking forward to years of rising demand for its critical cocoa crop as China develops a taste for chocolate, said Lauren Bandy, an analyst at market-research firm Euromonitor International. Global demand that includes a 5% annual increase from China will outstrip supply at least through 2018, the firm estimates.

    "Demand from China has completely taken off," Ms. Bandy said.

    It is that supply-demand mismatch that sent Richard Tsorblewu driving through the rain one recent Friday, buying cocoa from farms along the hills of Ghana. With prices at a 2½-year high, Mr. Tsorblewu, a trader, has been loading up truckloads of cocoa, and even cosigning loans for farmers looking to buy fertilizer.

    "It's China," he said. "They like chocolate very well."
     
  15. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

  16. JonIrenicus

    JonIrenicus Member

    I have a couple of thousand put away and I would like to invest.. any tips? Should I go through something like Scott Trade? Save more?

    -Jon
     
  17. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    The most influential people in biopharma today
    The most influential people in biopharma today - FierceBiotech

    • Heather Bresch - Mylan
    • Deirdre Connelly - GlaxoSmithKline
    • Jay Flatley - Illumina
    • George Golumbeski - Celgene
    • Omar Ishrak - Medtronic
    • Carl June - University of Pennsylvania
    • Mark Levin and Kevin Starr - Third Rock Ventures
    • Art Levinson - Calico
    • Freda Lewis-Hall - Pfizer
    • Karen Licitra - J&J
    • Zhang Mao - China SAIC
    • John Maraganore - Alnylam
    • Peter Meldrum - Myriad Genetics
    • Steve Miller - Express Scripts
    • Richard Pazdur - FDA
    • J. Michael Pearson - Valeant
    • Roger Perlmutter - Merck
    • Joerg Reinhardt - Novartis
    • Jami Rubin - Goldman Sachs
    • Andrew Witty - GlaxoSmithKline
    • George Yancopoulos - Regeneron
    • John Young - Pfizer
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2014
  18. Voltrader

    Voltrader Member

  19. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    No Comment Necessary

    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYHiOc3TXNU]Tom Perkins: The War on the 1% - YouTube[/ame]
     
  20. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    Voltrader likes this.