Time for gun stock?

Discussion in 'Men's Economics' started by BBC3, Dec 18, 2012.

  1. BBC3

    BBC3 Member

    Smith & Wesson went from $2.50 to almost 12 bucks this year. This was a terrible miss we should have seen..Smith & Wesson Holding Corp Quote Page (SWHC)
    *** This will be a BBC3 "BUY RATING" when it bottoms out from the legislation fears. I dont give a shit. Currnet event will not styme gun sales. In fact, they make me want to be damn sure I can properly protect and gun educate my family.

    NOTABLY - the other major players (Many US companies) are all privately held, or many of them including Remington who has several military contracts and are the makers of an 870 model tactical shotgun the US Marines employ.
    M870 Shotgun | US Special Operations | Weapons

    This limits the "public financial access" to these companys thus putting Smith&Wesson as a potentially HIGHLY MOBILE/volatile stock to buy. Shit, I think I would even consider risking a 90 day call option when this thing bottoms out... Unclear yet.;)
  2. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    Sales v Emotion
    IMO, these are the kind of opportunities that lend themselves to excellent profits. The volume shows the stocks have more downward movement. Once they start moving sideways or up, it might be time for a position. Gun sales are not going down no matter what Congress does.

    RGR & SWHC are getting slammed on this tragedy, but reports are the sales are increasing. Already below the support levels below. This is an overreaction, IMO. Compound this, Cerebrus stated they are selling their interest in a weapon manufacturer which they hold an interest. After the eventual fall halts, this will reverse and significantly.

    TA (below) puts support at $43 & $8, so wait to see the price action.

    2 Stocks That Could Suffer When This Trend Ends
    2 Stocks That Could Suffer When This Trend Ends

    Gun sales surge after Connecticut massacre
    Gun sales surge after Connecticut massacre | Fox News

    The prospect of a renewed assault weapons ban in the wake of the Connecticut school massacre has set off a round of buying, as thousands of Americans head to their local gun store to secure the popular AR-15 -- the model used by the school gunman -- before potential government prohibitions on their purchase.

    They are also buying the .223 ammunition used by the AR-15 and the type of high-capacity magazines covered under the last federal assault weapons ban, which Congress let expire without renewing.

    • The Colorado Bureau of Investigation says it set a new record for single-day background check submittals this past weekend.
    • In San Diego, Northwest Armory gun store owner Karl Durkheimer said Saturday "was the biggest day we've seen in 20 years. Sunday will probably eclipse that."
    • In southwest Ohio, from dawn to dusk a Cincinnati gun show had a line of 400 waiting to get in, said Joe Eaton of the Buckeye Firearms Association.

    [Story continues at link]

    Once sales are restarted, this might be a marker for the turnaround on sentiment.

    Dick's Sporting Goods suspends some rifle sales
    Dick's Sporting Goods suspends some rifle sales
  3. BBC3

    BBC3 Member

    BREAKING: CheaperThanDirt Suspends ALL Firearm Sales | The Truth About Guns

    This is going to fuel a massive gun purchase event. I was in Academy the other day and the shelves were getting low in ammo. All the damn shotguns at cheaper than dirt were sold out as of this morning and prior to their suspension of sales. There wont be a gun left on the shelves by the end of the year...

  4. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    Vanguard says social concerns will not affect gunmaker holdings
    Vanguard says social concerns will not affect gunmaker holdings | Reuters

    Dec 18 (Reuters) - Money manager Vanguard Group Inc, the largest owner of gunmaker Smith & Wesson Holding Corp, said on Tuesday it cannot operate its big index funds to meet what it called the "social concerns" of all shareholders.

    Vanguard of Pennsylvania said in a statement it is "deeply saddened by the tragedy in Connecticut" but said most of its shares in Smith & Wesson and rival Sturm Ruger & Co are held in index funds that are required to track their indexes.
  5. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Expands Stock Repurchase Program
    Investors - Press Releases - Smith & Wesson

  6. BBC3

    BBC3 Member

    Typically, this kind of inside move would be associated with stock price support. Kinda like CPR for you current public stock price. I just dont think so in this case. But "the market" did have if projected to bottom about 8$, right? I guess they meant it... LOL

    I really dont know what to think of this. Its nothing more than INCIDEOUS MARKET CONTROL for reasons unclear. It would really suck to have "bought some PUT, or sold some CALL" on this right now - and in anticipation of the downward stock price move due to possible govt regulations. Really, the entire scenario just screams HOW RETARDED the MARKET really is.. If you are out on a GUN HUNT, you will find that the S&W tactical guns which emulate the popular COLT AR-15 (better known as COLT M-16) are not all that available and appear pretty exclusive to LE agencies moreso. They just dont appear that common on shelves like Academy SPorts, etc.. I COULD BE WRONG... But I dont think the general public is thinking "S&W" when considering automatic assault rifles. So with all the obvious LE contracts, how could this company suffer in sales due to any regulation?

    With all that said, it really points out how RISKY a company that would appear "non-risky" (Low volatility) can be. Obviously, dont try any fancy tricks with this stock.. It should also point out that there really should be no QUICK upside either, as a company which is willing to suck this much back "in house" on a dime, can easily dump it right back out there. There can no be a better textbook model of a successful profitable company I think. So the bottom line is that this one is a keeper for sure. It looks like conditions are right for some serious internal market control. And it dont look like its ever going anywhere fast anytime soon - Short of a 2:1 Split (which I could def see comming if the company is just poising to do a bit of profit taking THEMSELVES..)...
    This could also be a political move to stop the profit taking in progress... And for reasons not completely clear, but you can be the same folks making the decisions have plenty of this stock, and a glimpse at the current INSIDE MOVEs is merited. Be clear, this is no tech bubble stock or fantansy dream machine. There is actually a product being manufactured and sold here and the books look good..!:)

    It could all very well add up to a simply primer for split to double value as I only see this one right back above 12$ and higher. You have to see that if the diminished stock value as of late (and with consideration for their actual market base) is only profit taking - then an internal support mechanism would successfully hold off the realization of a falsely diminished stock price. Volume changes hands in the ripening of a massive split driven repurchase - everyone sailing back up to 12 bucks from a realized split back to 4$ impending.

  7. Moose

    Moose Member

    CalSTRS investments get hard look after tragedy
    Second largest state pension fund to divest.

    CalSTRS investments get hard look after tragedy
    The nation’s second largest public pension fund, reacting to a mass school shooting in Connecticut last month, is taking a new look at the “social” impact of its $150 billion investment portfolio.

    The California State Teachers Retirement System found that it owned stock, apparently in violation of its own policy, in the maker of a semi-automatic rifle, banned in California, that was used to kill 20 first-graders and six adults in an elementary school.

    Teachers on the CalSTRS board seemed emotionally moved yesterday before a unanimous vote that may result in the sale of $2.9 million worth of stock in Sturm Ruger and Smith & Wesson, makers of some guns and large ammo clips banned in California.

    Through its holdings in a private equity firm, Cerberus, the pension fund also owns stock valued at $8.8 million in the Freedom Group, maker of the Bushmaster rifle used by a lone gunman in the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary in Newtown, Conn.

    Dana Dillon, board chair, said she realizes an inquiry from CalSTRS may not be the “single factor” prompting Cerberus to announce that it would sell its shares in Freedom Group, owner of Remington, Marlin, H&R and other brands.

    Her voice breaking, Dillon asked the staff: “When you have conversations, did you express our gratitude for moving quickly?” She was told Cerberus had been thanked in the media and directly in conversations.

    State Treasurer Bill Lockyer, a member of the CalSTRS and California Public Employees Retirement System boards, has asked both pension funds to divest holdings in firms making firearms banned in California.

    Like many pension funds in the U.S. and other nations, the two big California funds try to follow investment guidelines that have become known as “ESG,” an abbreviation for “environmental, social and governance.”

    Some coordination among the pension funds is attempted through organizations such as the International Corporate Governance Network, the Council of Institutional Investors and the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment.

    Following ESG guidelines might seem to be a potential conflict with the “fiduciary” or legal obligation of pension boards to protect member benefits, presumably by trying to maximize investment returns.

    But for long-term international investors, CalSTRS and others argue that investment returns are protected by safeguarding the environment, avoiding abuses of human health and rights, and pushing for good corporate governance.

    “As a significant investor with a very long-term investment horizon and expected life, the success of CalSTRS is linked to global economic growth and prosperity,” says a CalSTRS policy on ESG investing. “Actions and activities that detract from the likelihood and potential of global growth are not in the long-term interests of the fund.”

    Critics suggest that an ESG investment policy is a smokescreen for labor-friendly pension boards that want to use their investment clout to pursue an activist liberal political agenda. (See “The Next Catastrophe,” Reason magazine February 2009)

    CalSTRS and CalPERS played a leading role in pushing for the Dodd-Frank post-crisis financial reform in 2010, opposed by business groups. The two California pension funds also pushed for settlement of a janitor strike last year in Houston, Tex.

    At the request of Lockyer, the two pension funds adopted a policy in 2011 of urging corporate boards to disclose political campaign contributions, a response to a court decision that allows unlimited contributions without disclosure.

    Legislators have used pension fund investments for political purposes, calling for divestment in firms doing business with troubled nations such as apartheid South Africa, Sudan and Iran and putting Northern Ireland on a watch list.

    A consulting firm said CalSTRS lost $600 million to $700 million as South African holdings were sold and replaced and investment opportunities lost. CalPERS is estimated to have lost $1.86 billion by 2006 from South African divestment.

    CalSTRS removed tobacco from its passively managed index funds in 2002 and dropped all tobacco-related securities by Jan. 1, 2010. Since then its portfolio has yielded about $570 million less than a similar portfolio with tobacco, a report said last month.

    A written policy has guided CalSTRS investments on ESG issues since 1978. But a list of 21 “risk factors” on “geopolitical and social” issues was not adopted until 2008 as CalSTRS worked on Sudan divestment.

    Chris Ailman, CalSTRS chief investment officer, told the board yesterday the focus in 2008 was on human rights as investments in emerging markets increased and on risk and liquidity as the financial crisis erupted.

    He said the new risk factors were not applied retroactively to existing investments. So the Cerberus investments in the Freedom Group, which were made before 2008, went undetected.

    Ailman said a review made after the school shootings last month found that Sturm Ruger and Smith & Wesson are violating two of the 21 risk factors: “human health” and “human rights,” stated as broad principles not specific rules.

    The divestment of firms that make banned-in-California assault rifles, “Saturday-night” special handguns and high-capacity ammunition clips is expected to begin with “constructive engagement” of the manufacturers.

    If the firms do not comply, the CalSTRS board will be informed. Then the steps followed to ensure “fiduciary” responsibility may lead to an order to sell the stock of the gun makers.

    Board member Sharon Hendricks said the CalSTRS board lacked information about the holdings of private equity firms, which are expected to provide above-market returns for pension funds.

    “We invest in companies, and they buy companies,” said Hendricks. “We are kind of three or four touches away from them, and I get concerned about what’s happening in that company.”

    Pension funds use their shareholder clout to monitor executive pay, board of directors composition and other actions by publicly traded companies. But it’s not clear that private equity firms get the same kind of scrutiny.

    The private equity firm formerly run by the Republican presidential candidate last year, Mitt Romney, was accused by his opponents of “vulture” capitalism, profiting through layoffs and sending jobs overseas.

    Board member Harry Keiley, the investment committee chair, told Hendricks the work plan for the year could include a “deeper dive” into the portfolio, probably in closed-door sessions for the more sensitive holdings.

    Ailman said the staff has already begun re-evaluating the portfolio and has identified a list of additional “social” risks that should be considered as investment decisions are made.

    “We say it time and again to managers,” said Ailman. “The 21 risk factors are not there just to be put on the wall. They are there to be lived. They are principles, and we are going to hold them accountable.”

    Reporter Ed Mendel covered the Capitol in Sacramento for nearly three decades, most recently for the San Diego Union-Tribune. More stories are at Calpensions Posted 10 Jan 13
  8. BBC3

    BBC3 Member

    I certainly hope you cut that poor animal loose....

    And FYI, I dont think the semi Tactical rifle EVER made it in to that school. In fact, it stayed in the back seat of that WIERD FUCKERS CAR...!!

    QUIT spreading bullshit propaganda. Please provide some proof if so. I am sticking with the initial reports that an assault rifle was NOT used. THis is PRESS BULLSHIT..

    Or so I heard...

    They should really just take a perputrator of a crime like that who is unquestionable caught red handed. For example the Colorado case. THEY SHOULD HANG THEM ON THE COURTHOUSE STEPS with a CANE placed handy and just allow the general public to whack the shit out of them, (one whack per person pleaze, and once per 15 mins with evenings off) - Until THEY ARE DEAD> Which I speculate would take about 3 months...
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2013
  9. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

  10. BBC3

    BBC3 Member

    Possibly. I advise caution against any aggressive plays though. The industry appears highly controlled and byMONSTER players - financially speaking. The instant requisition of stock by S&W corporate to ensure the forecasted "floor" was dumbfounding, considering the principle and market.!! This company is at zero risk. At the same time, it's somewhat comforting to know they are no going to allow rampant manipulation by various factors.. So I leave this one as a BBC3 "strong buy" for now. But with caution at this time.

    The bottom indeed appears to be 8$, we know the top. The stock is undervalued considering where P/e is headed, and with further consideration of their real market - which is LE and military. And remember, Tactical assault rifles are FAR from the only product S&W manufactures..! Further, the market has not yet had its proper dues with regard to inflation. Shit, little Debbie's don't come down below 1.75 anymore. Guns have not seen their taste yet as they Have not inflated since the effect of the 1994 ban. Fuk it! Volume is good, - I am upping my previous advisory to "A 4Star Lock" all the way to $10.50..! Then we'll buckle down and we will reevaluate. The only thing guaranteed in this life is death and occasional war. A Roman Time purchase indeed.!!
  11. BBC3

    BBC3 Member

    I am planning a look at the "other white meat"(Ruger), but I am just not a fan of their products, and regardless of their history. So that evaluation scares me. But given the only other "public game" in town, and the current political market - it MUST be reviewed at this time. Lol
  12. BBC3

    BBC3 Member

    Smith & Wesson Holding Corp Quote Page (SWHC)

    So if you look back at this link since the original post, you will find that the stock bottomed out around $7.80 about a week after the post. And make no mistake that bottom was found after in house PRICE SUPPORT in the form of common stock buy back (I think I recall). So it just wernt goin no LOWER.. Track it and you will find that it again peaked mid February @ $9.55. - and before a little more PROFIT TAKING resumed mid this week. SO thats 7.80/9.55 ='s approx 20% GAIN IN 2 MONTHS TIME... Not bad...

    Consider the nature of the NASDAQ market is to SCREWW you out of 1/8 tro 1/4 oints EVERY DAMN TIME YOU TRADE. Its really set up for brokers by design. But a low profile stock like this is the primest candidate for a small trader to move in and out undetected and with limited expense as possible - probably best traded trough a large online type house..

    What makes this stock especially attractive to small traders (essential anyone) is the price at under 10 bucks per share thus limiting BARRIERS to ENTRY. A semi-cautious CALL option might have even broke even if one were gambling for more profound move upward which did not occur...

    Personally, I believe the S&W market sector is so directed at LE, that any potential assault weapons ban is nothing more that rhetorical fuel for manipulation on this one, and that too much stock was re-purchased in efforts to control various forms of derivative and analogue profit taking, thus the rebound. Further I have no doubt it will see 12bucks by the end of the year- or more. ThAT IS - unless the company starts intervening again will sell off control measures. I believe this control is in part motivated as effort to maitain a low profile politically.
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2013
  13. DTdr2

    DTdr2 Member

    There are 5 fundamental truths which can be found on page 130 from "Trading in the Zone".
    1. Anything can happen.
    2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
    3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
    4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
    5. Every moment in the market is unique.

    Simply put, everybody can trade from the middle of the chart, but let's see you do it from the right side. In other words, it's what you take off the table that counts :cool:
  14. BBC3

    BBC3 Member

    Now 5 fundamental truths from the mind of BBC3. Cherish them:
    1. You ALWAYS get what you pay for. Unless you stole it or lucked up. Then CHARMA IS A BITCH.
    2. While ANYTHING can happen, PROBABILITY with consideration of HISTORY & Current conditions is usually what does happen. And if you doubt and think that ANYTHING happened even as luck, you can mail your $$$ to me, OR QUIT BULLSHITTING.
    3. You need to clearly understand what an Edge is. Its a pretty way of saying you have exclusive insight or knowledge. OF COURSE their is a DISTRIBUTION. Its far from random. You can bank on it evening out in units counted in action. As without negative, there is no POSITIVE. There is no magic line. We are WHERE WE ARE...
    4. True, but you omitted the part of how you wind up on the right side... And only because YOU DONT KNOW, else you would not be talking.
    5. So is every time a jerk off...

    I guy can write a book, teach a class, train you to do something. You can BET INVARIABLY that you WILL NOT be able to reproduce the ACTION identically as you are incapable of being him, he will not tell you the fine print and could not if he wanted to, and to those which are blessed by FATE to achieve a prosperous DESTINY. We all have POTENTIAL. We will ALL Stumble Around in The DARK until we find that KEY which is UNIQUE to each and every one of us. You may start out down or ahead, all relative to whatever, you will quickly gravitate to your given ability, and NEVER any more once all available "learning" is exhausted and to the degree which YOU can utilize. To boast of a fix is to confess to be lost, and hoping those that are also lost can help. Those who are NOT LOST/DIVINE have no intentions of inviting YOU to the party or at least the AFTER PARTY. They are the few and the ones you will never TRULY KNOW.

    Read all the book you want to. Short of George Bush, Bill Gates, and Rothschilds resources, you are CANNON FODDER- AKA - Market Support.:eek::)

    BBC3 Quote: Enlightenment is achieved the day that you cancel your trip to the casino, flush 1/2 the $$ you know you were going to loose right down the toilet and save the gas money, then spending the other half on a good bottle of wine and a blowjob.

    * And if you have no idea how much $$ you would have lost at that casino, then you need to drive there right now and gamble EVERY SINGLE CENT you have away, so that you can go ahead and hit bottom and begin your climb out of that black hole...;)

    Last edited: Feb 22, 2013
  15. BBC3

    BBC3 Member

    Take note: Stock hit 10.63 the other day...


    Attached Files:

  16. DTdr2

    DTdr2 Member

    But did you have a stop in place, or sell at the top? If not, it really doesn't matter what the stock hits. In this game it's what you walk away with, and greed will eliminate much of that. What's your game plan BBC3? If you plan on making specific buy/sell recommendations why don't you lay it on the line at the start of a trade by stating your trading plan so we can see how really good you are. This will help us forum members keep track of your win/loss ratio.
    Your Stock Pick:
    Entry At:
    Number of Shares:
    Stop Loss:
    Target Price:
    Exit At:
    Will you use a trailing stop?

    Use all the recycled news information you want. By the time you see the news your stocks already made its move. Short Term, SWHC is trending down. Money flow (always follow the money), MACD, RSI, and candle sticks all show it going lower. The daily also has the stock moving below the 50 EMA which indicates a bearish trend. Weekly, long term candle stick is a bearish harami which is a neutral position after a bullish run. Will it continue to trend up? Not a lot of strength in the MACD, RSI, and the Money Flow. Short term doesn't look good, but one things for certain, anything can happen.

    Attached Files:

  17. BBC3

    BBC3 Member

    Good stuff...

    No I am not vested right now. Which is where you should want me shoukd I decide to lay out a plan of any sort.

    Nothing there was hindsite. You just have to follow the history of the thread and relate the gimmes.. That was cake. The only think more I could have done was laid out the digits you mentioned with caveat for modification.

    I did not track any inside transactions, that was just simple arithmatic. Some things you just know. I don't propose to be a profit of any sort. In fact, in KZnOWN for the gifted ability to loose my ass. Lol. You just have to play along and take the opposite position. I have really never cared enough to vest without my own interest. I would be much more accurate if I had my own interest involved. You'd be 10 for 10 if going opposite.!

    Ill tell you this much. I've never really given thought outside my interest. Shoukd my interest become MY Principle at any time, ill let you know. Till then, each their own. Good luck..!

    No more bets gentlemen. DEALER OUT...
  18. BBC3

    BBC3 Member

    And FYI. There are Bearz, there are fantasies, and there is Manipulation. Wise man say best to know the difference. Way to know difference is to know thou shit about the principle subject at hand. Most important facet being Market perception of the people, not the fodder. Then, and only then, shall thy vector be sound...!
  19. DTdr2

    DTdr2 Member

    I agree with you on perception. The masses always react the same, much like a school of fish. That's why I only trade off the technicals. Trade what I see, and stick to my plan.