Will steroid prices crash hard once the market realized there would be no chinese supply shortage?

[master.on]

As expected, some suppliers jacked up prices of the false belief that the chinese gov't is going to crackdown on supply.

While most bodybuilders are gullible, sooner or later they'd all realize there's no supply shortage and some sources will begin cutting prices to attract customers, thus crashing prices.

Take cocaine as an example, not only actual prices are lower than those in the 80s (so I read), they are sharply lower if purchase parity is taken into account.
(Over)supply and demand laws rule, especially for an illegal business.

 

[Iron Frenchie]

I agree. Does a measly gram of primo really cost $18 more to produce?

 

[Rosconow]

I agree. Does a measly gram of primo really cost $18 more to produce?

Yes, probably more.

 

[Iron Frenchie]

Yes, probably more.

$18 MORE. So you think a gram cost more then $36?

 

[Rosconow]

I don't know.... but methenolone is one of the "trickier" ones to manufacture. So I was told by my overseas source.

 

[master.on]

I agree. Does a measly gram of primo really cost $18 more to produce?

Well, first they have to allow for reshipping orders without losing money.

If they suppose 100% of orders will need (free) reshipping, that brings it down to $9, cost + profit included
If 50% of orders gets reshipped, that's $12, cost+profit.
Of course, 100% and 50% reshipping rate is too exaggerate, but they need to budget their prices on the safe side.
If 25% of orders needs reshipping (probably close to the actual figure), then cost+profit =
$14.40

Now what's the source profit margin?
I'd say 50-100% MARKUP
(all sources are resellers, absolutely no source manufactures its own raws, don't believe that BS)
If their markup is 50% (probably accurate) cost+profit = $14.40 (after allowing for 25% reshipping, read above), then raws cost $9.60 per gram, $9600 per Kg.
If markup is 100% (sell at twice the cost), then primo raws cost $7.2 per gram, $7,200 per Kg. Sounds about right for top quality raws.

 

[master.on]

Drug prices don't even keep pace with inflation

Anyone remembers the 2009 and 2014 oil price crash?

The same will happen to steroid prices

 

[brutus79]

Drug prices don't even keep pace with inflation

Anyone remembers the 2009 and 2014 oil price crash?

The same will happen to steroid prices

Too bad speculating on pointless shit and talking yourself into being the expert on the subject in the same thread doesn't pay well. Your stupid ass would be rich.

 

[master.on]

Too bad speculating on pointless shit and talking yourself into being the expert on the subject in the same thread doesn't pay well. Your stupid ass would be rich.

What's the problem? Why so bitter?

A. You have skin in the game and you benefit from high steroid prices.
If so, get out while you can and get a real (and legal) job.
B. You stocked up. Now you realize that you bought near the top and it will take years of inflation for your stash to catch up in price.

 

[biggies]

what makes you so sure that china will continue shipping raws? have they shipped anything since the new year? I'm not arguing any points with you that you made it just seems every other thread on other boards are saying nothing is coming out of china and the doors have closed for the time being. with all that being said i hope your right lol the talk of dark times and sky rocketing prices/limited availability is getting old

 

[master.on]

what makes you so sure that china will continue shipping raws? have they shipped anything since the new year? I'm not arguing any points with you that you made it just seems every other thread on other boards are saying nothing is coming out of china and the doors have closed for the time being. with all that being said i hope your right lol the talk of dark times and sky rocketing prices/limited availability is getting old

China as a country doesn't ship steroids or any illegal drugs by itself. Private drug "entrepreneurs" do.

Most steroids are and will continue to be manufactured in china.
Even if steroids aren't shipped from China anymore, they will be legally shipped to another country (Hong Kong is the closest and most likely one) and then remailed from there.
Remember some time ago most steroids where shipped from China to Moldova and then remailed to the final customers.

There is not and will not be any shortage supplies.
At worst they will make some paper companies in steroid friendly countries to legally import them, and just remail them.

At the very worst they'll set up some real, legal pharma or veterinary companies and resell 99%+ of the raws they legally import.
Again, some time ago Mexican veterinary companies imported thousands of Kg's and sold most of that on the black market (albeit they were sold as finished vials back then).

Of course I'm not condoning or encouraging any illegal activities, I'm just pointing out the way it it.
Don't shoot the messenger.

 

[3ml]

China as a country doesn't ship steroids or any illegal drugs by itself. Private drug "entrepreneurs" do.

Most steroids are and will continue to be manufactured in china.
Even if steroids aren't shipped from China anymore, they will be legally shipped to another country (Hong Kong is the closest and most likely one) and then remailed from there.
Remember some time ago most steroids where shipped from China to Moldova and then remailed to the final customers.

There is not and will not be any shortage supplies.
At worst they will make some paper companies in steroid friendly countries to legally import them, and just remail them.

At the very worst they'll set up some real, legal pharma or veterinary companies and resell 99%+ of the raws they legally import.
Again, some time ago Mexican veterinary companies imported thousands of Kg's and sold most of that on the black market (albeit they were sold as finished vials back then).

Of course I'm not condoning or encouraging any illegal activities, I'm just pointing out the way it it.
Don't shoot the messenger.

You are talking out of your ass completely

 

[AVGGUY74]

China as a country doesn't ship steroids or any illegal drugs by itself. Private drug "entrepreneurs" do.

Most steroids are and will continue to be manufactured in china.
Even if steroids aren't shipped from China anymore, they will be legally shipped to another country (Hong Kong is the closest and most likely one) and then remailed from there.
Remember some time ago most steroids where shipped from China to Moldova and then remailed to the final customers.

There is not and will not be any shortage supplies.
At worst they will make some paper companies in steroid friendly countries to legally import them, and just remail them.

At the very worst they'll set up some real, legal pharma or veterinary companies and resell 99%+ of the raws they legally import.
Again, some time ago Mexican veterinary companies imported thousands of Kg's and sold most of that on the black market (albeit they were sold as finished vials back then).

Of course I'm not condoning or encouraging any illegal activities, I'm just pointing out the way it it.
Don't shoot the messenger.

You seem to forget that there is a lack of any Mexican products (oh how I miss TTokkyo, Quality Vet, Animal Power, etc) due to the US shutting down all the labs in Mexico. That definitely was real and nothing has come out of Mexico since.

Same as nothing has come out of China since about Dec 18th and the horizon looks bleak. Once Chinese Customs clamps down, it will be fucked.. This is why next to no one, nearly ZERO, Chinese have been able to ship via courier for the last 2 years. The couriers were told not to accept shipments of chemicals goods from companies without
proper inspection certificates of the goods they sell. The steroid guys tried to ignore this and within a couple months they all stopped.

 

[Villain]

You seem to forget that there is a lack of any Mexican products (oh how I miss TTokkyo, Quality Vet, Animal Power, etc) due to the US shutting down all the labs in Mexico. That definitely was real and nothing has come out of Mexico since.

Same as nothing has come out of China since about Dec 18th and the horizon looks bleak. Once Chinese Customs clamps down, it will be fucked.. This is why next to no one, nearly ZERO, Chinese have been able to ship via courier for the last 2 years. The couriers were told not to accept shipments of chemicals goods from companies without
proper inspection certificates of the goods they sell. The steroid guys tried to ignore this and within a couple months they all stopped.

Funny, because I’m seeing several Chinese sources still shipping out of China

 

[4Figgy]

Funny, because I’m seeing several Chinese sources still shipping out of China

Yep. Got one from China showing up this week.

 

[BJJisLIFE]

Yep. Got one from China showing up this week.

If you've ever shopped on Aliexpress you'll notice that there are many sellers that have the exact same product. They are all re-sellers, posing as wholesalers.

I feel like the China steroid market is the same. There are many different sellers, but they all get the product from a few manufacturers. With the new regulations, it's possible that the actual manufacturers are pulling back on who they sell to inside China. That may be why you're seeing a lot of Chinese sources closing but there are still some that are running like nothing has happened.

 

[master.on]

If you've ever shopped on Aliexpress you'll notice that there are many sellers that have the exact same product. They are all re-sellers, posing as wholesalers.

I feel like the China steroid market is the same. There are many different sellers, but they all get the product from a few manufacturers. With the new regulations, it's possible that the actual manufacturers are pulling back on who they sell to inside China. That may be why you're seeing a lot of Chinese sources closing but there are still some that are running like nothing has happened.

Maybe the chinese manufacturers raised the MOQ amount to 10, 25, 50 Kg or something like that?
Therefore the smaller sources can't afford it?

You seem to forget that there is a lack of any Mexican products (oh how I miss TTokkyo, Quality Vet, Animal Power, etc) due to the US shutting down all the labs in Mexico. That definitely was real and nothing has come out of Mexico since.

Same as nothing has come out of China since about Dec 18th and the horizon looks bleak. Once Chinese Customs clamps down, it will be fucked.. This is why next to no one, nearly ZERO, Chinese have been able to ship via courier for the last 2 years. The couriers were told not to accept shipments of chemicals goods from companies without
proper inspection certificates of the goods they sell. The steroid guys tried to ignore this and within a couple months they all stopped.

Nothing wrong with being a natty
but don't hold your breath for the steroid supply to dry up.

 

[master.on]

The coronavirus just halted most chinese factories.
So yes, there might be a temporary shortage
but it's because of the coronavirus, not because of the steroid "ban".