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So you think that curve just stops there? Extrapolate that line out for another month or two and tell me what happens. At some point the curve will flatten on its own due to herd immunity, which is basically what you are proposing, which is your perogative...but at least understand what that curve represents beyond the actual numbers presented on it.
I don’t care if the curve stops or not, Darwinism will take care of everything in the end, and there is nothing you can do about it, jack shit, if your beloved “elderly parents” or family members in general have to go, they will go...
I am posting what I have read and what I understand about the spread of viruses (e.g. exponential/logistic growth due to the differential equations used to model virus dynamics) being somebody who does mathematical modeling in other areas.
Exactly, and you don’t understand shit anyway, even the experts, by all accounts, supposedly don’t understand what’s going on, how could you?
Not the deaths, the number of cases. I realize the mortality rate is lower than initially reported and if it gets to the point where it is near the flu I will be quite happy. That said it does appear to be more infectious than the flu so even if the mortality rate of it is near the flu, the fact that it spread faster means we will need to be more careful to keep the number of cases low (compared to the flu) in order for this not to cause a significant amount of deaths going forward until there is a working vaccine and treatment options.
and your opinions are informed by what? Divine intervention? Even Einstein relied on knowledge of others in order to formulate his theory of gravity...
and I wasn't at all surprised by the models being off due to the type of solutions the models produce. Being slightly off in the parameters in those models, in this case likely the effect of social distancing, cause large errors in exponential/logistic type curves. Also those models gave ranges of deaths, which is the scientists way of inherently saying there is uncertainty in the models. That said even the mean result, which should have been somewhat close to where we are, was pretty off which tells me there was an underlying problem in the data they were feeding the models.
They are based on my observations of reports that have been made by people with no agenda and also on studies that have shown that social distancing doesn’t work because the virus propagates much farther than 6 feet when you cough, and even when you exhale there are aerosol particles that stay suspended in the air, so the only way social distancing would work would be if people were locked inside their houses 24/7 until the virus disappeared, which is not feasible in any way shape or form.
So Sweden was just unlucky compared to those other countries which surround them which implemented social distancing?? There are some people who have not left their homes during this period. Yes complete social distancing cannot happen, I agree, ,but the less daily contact that people have (on average) will help.
I work in the medical field and what you say just isn't correct. Most cases are not asymptomatic, almost nobody gets over it in 72 hours, more like 2-3 weeks for a lot of people, and often times longer. The death rate is not low compared to the flu, but likely might drop some due to the lack of testing, as many more people might have had it and recovered, which would make the death rate drop some. Unlike the flu, where people have some cross immunity due to vaccines, there is no immunity to this virus at all. Everyone should be afraid of getting this, as the damage it can and does do to a person's lungs can cause problems for the remainder of their life. Sure so far the numbers are lower than they predicted, but you open things back up without massive testing in place, and no social distancing and the number of cases will skyrocket again, then right back to square one.
We cannot really say this without a lot more testing...
This is not correct. There might be some validity to the fact that when someone exhales aerosol particles might be exhaled, but that isn't agreed upon, and most doctors don't think it is. Aerosolizing procedures such as patient intubation can cause particles to be suspended in the air, and that's hospitals have cancelled elective procedures for the most part. The rest of what you said is false.
Antibody testing would give a better idea of the amount of asymptomatic cases, but I believe we will find out that the majority of cases are not asymptomatic. At this point tests for this virus should be as plentiful as tests for influenza A and B, and they are not even close to having the number of tests they need.
When he is saying social distancing he is thinking of the 6 ft thing. In that case, yeah it might help to be 6 ft away but I probably wouldn't want to be 6 feet away from somebody sick. When I think of social distancing I am thinking of people staying home and only surrounding themselves with the same group of people...
As it was mentioned before, the people that were “spared” by social distancing are going to die anyway, unless they stay locked at home forever, so it is a fruitless measure that’s just fucking over the majority of population who wouldn’t get affected in any meaningful way.
asymptomatic means they have no symptoms..in that case they wouldn't even have been counted in those numbers because they wouldn't have even gone to the hospital or gotten tested (at least at this point).
The question, which you keep skirting, was simply at this moment in time did social distancing help keep the deaths down in other countries e.g. does social distancing work in keeping deaths down when it is being implemented. The question wasn't whether you can keep social distancing forever or whether or not people will eventually die from something...
