STOCK UP: Don't say you weren't warned! (US)

[Ghoul]

How do you think gear from China has been getting in so easily? It's not special smuggling routes, submarines, or secret airports. It's just the mail. Or more accurately, large containers filled with tiny packages, that are relabeled with US postage once they arrive in the US. Customs is sent an electronic list of contents, senders, and recipients which customs just green lights (because they're overwhelmed and they can't charge duties on any of it), and bam, it's in.

That's all about to change.

The "De minimus" rule allowed packages with a declared value under $800 to enter the country without going through customs in most cases. Volume has gone up from a hundred million to a BILLION packages a year. Everyone from trade unions screaming about cheap goods putting them out of work to the police saying this is a primary way drugs are smuggled into the country have been demanding something be done.

And of course, it's a huge potential source of $$$ for the government, the primary motivation.

In anticipation of new legislation to revamp de minimus, they've been laying the groundwork to build the capacity to inspect every parcel coming into the country. JFK has a huge new facility, run by a contractor, with high speed conveyors and AI run scanners, on site drug identification lab, that will go on line in January. It'll primarily be staffed by contractors and the company overseeing this operation will be paid based on performance...ie duties charged and packages seized. This is not your typical "I don't GAF" government worker,

No more skipped inspections.

And now the end game, legislation to flip the switch enabling this new regime is about to be put into place. Will probably he law within weeks, though I assume won't take effect until January.

You can stick your head in the sand, call me a "fear monger", pretend gear will be smuggled in "because drugs get smuggled in", blah blah. Yeah, it'll get in somehow, but it sure won't be like it is now, ordering from a huge selection at incredibly low prices.

If you're smart, especially if you're in self directed TRT and really need the stuff, you'll get on it NOW, and stock up on essentials. All gear begins and ends with raws that come from China, there are no US sources.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-lawmakers-move-to-restrict-trade-provision-favored-by-chinas-e-commerce-giants-bcd8fd43?mod=mhp

 

[bigead]

Not to worried. If that was the case Nixons war on drugs means there should be no dope on the streets by now. Anything with the feds is a rat hole of corruption, loop holes and unchecked flanks. The boarder as exhibit A. 50 years left unchecked no matter what regime is at the helm.

 

[Ghoul]

Not to worried. If that was the case Nixons war on drugs means there should be no dope on the streets by now. Anything with the feds is a rat hole of corruption, loop holes and unchecked flanks. The boarder as exhibit A. 50 years left unchecked no matter what regime is at the helm.

LOL, you don't understand the difference between something being "available" with almost the same ease, variety, quality and low pricing as buying from Amazon, and "available" like brown tar heroin from dealer in some shady neighborhood.

Ask the old timers how much it sucked to buy gear 20 years ago to get a clue.

 

[bighunanballs]

In anticipation of new legislation to revamp de minimus, they've been laying the groundwork to build the capacity to inspect every parcel coming into the country. JFK has a huge new facility, run by a contractor, with high speed conveyors and AI run scanners, on site drug identification lab, that will go on line in January. It'll primarily be staffed by contractors and the company overseeing this operation will be paid based on performance...ie duties charged and packages seized. This is not your typical "I don't GAF" government worker,

Got any links talking about this particular point?

 

[AlexDavis43]

Ask the old timers how much it sucked to buy gear 20 years ago to get a clue.

In the 90's, we'd literally send cash in a birthday card to some weird anon online source and just wait. Sometimes, gear came in the mail a few months later.

Sure it was better than paying 10x from someone local but the risk of losing money was also 10x (or at least the fear of losing money, because even though I only did it a few times, iirc gear always came).

 

[AlexDavis43]

Not to worried. If that was the case Nixons war on drugs means there should be no dope on the streets by now. Anything with the feds is a rat hole of corruption, loop holes and unchecked flanks. The boarder as exhibit A. 50 years left unchecked no matter what regime is at the helm.

I have doubts about the upcoming gear apocalypse given what @UncleBuns pointed out here.

We've gone from cash in birthday cards to credit cards to bitcoin in only a few years. Some sources still do it all those ways. Imo it might get more expensive but not too worried.

 

[bighunanballs]

I have doubts about the upcoming gear apocalypse given what @UncleBuns pointed out here.

We've gone from cash in birthday cards to credit cards to bitcoin in only a few years. Some sources still do it all those ways. Imo it might get more expensive but not too worried.

It'll be more domestic UGL's popping up brewing up their raws they stashed away in the before times.

 

[Ghoul]

Got any links talking about this particular point?

Of course. You can dig into the contractor, "WFS", their capabilities and the tech they're bringing to automate customs inspections not just in the US, but around the world. More and more countries are outsourcing customs work to these guys, because the additional revenue they bring in terms of customs duties and fines makes their services pay for themselves. In a CBP bulletin, they say the amount of CBP personell freed up by this will allow for "substantially" more controlled deliveries to be carried out. I know this isn't targeting steroids, but I'm sure they'll be collateral damage.

US CBP select WFS to operate the first centralized examination station at JFK - The Loadstar

Worldwide Flight Services (WFS), a member of the SATS Group, has been selected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to operate a new Centralized Examination Station (CES) at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK). WFS has been awarded a five-year contract by CBP, one of...

theloadstar.com

 

[Ghoul]

It'll be more domestic UGL's popping up brewing up their raws they stashed away in the before times.

What do you think those UGLs will do when they can no longer replace their raws easily and cheaply from some place like QSC? Back to $50, $100+ vials? That would still be cheaper than the "old days", so it could be even higher.

The problem here is the money that incentivizes smuggling of hardcore drugs just isn't there. Who's gonna risk smuggling a kilo of raws when coke, meth, or fentanyl would bring in 100x more profit?

 

[bighunanballs]

What do you think those UGLs will do when they can no longer replace their raws easily and cheaply from some place like QSC? Back to $50, $100+ vials? That would still be cheaper than the "old days", so it could be even higher.

The problem here is the money that incentivizes smuggling of hardcore drugs just isn't there. Who's gonna risk smuggling a kilo of raws when coke, meth, or fentanyl would bring in 100x more profit?

They'll find a way to get raws like they always did and they'll jack up prices. Back to $80 vials of test... Well with inflation it's gonna be a bit more.

Plenty of bathtub brewers would risk having a kilo of raws shipped and hidden well in China packs vs risking a kilo of coke. A lot of these guy know how to sell off and unload gear maybe not a kilo of fentanyl.

 

[MadaFacor]

What do you think those UGLs will do when they can no longer replace their raws easily and cheaply from some place like QSC? Back to $50, $100+ vials? That would still be cheaper than the "old days", so it could be even higher.

The problem here is the money that incentivizes smuggling of hardcore drugs just isn't there. Who's gonna risk smuggling a kilo of raws when coke, meth, or fentanyl would bring in 100x more profit?

Guarantee that if the Chinese routes dry up our ganja and coke smuggling friends to the south will step in. The margins aren't right at the moment. Still means higher prices.

 

[UncleBuns]

I have doubts about the upcoming gear apocalypse given what @UncleBuns pointed out here.

We've gone from cash in birthday cards to credit cards to bitcoin in only a few years. Some sources still do it all those ways. Imo it might get more expensive but not too worried.

Illegal drug markets are a cat and mouse game. Government and law enforcement is constantly coming up with ways to stop importation and sale and at best they slow it a bit periodically but the market just carries on and adapts to whatever they do. If there's money to be made, and there always will be, then sellers will certainly find ways around anything they come up with. Also, we're dealing with government agencies and government employees. That automatically tells you how high the bar is to get over. I'm talking about individuals like most people on this forum, not big players moving large quantities of product

 

[iris]

How do you think gear from China has been getting in so easily? It's not special smuggling routes, submarines, or secret airports. It's just the mail. Or more accurately, large containers filled with tiny packages, that are relabeled with US postage once they arrive in the US. Customs is sent an electronic list of contents, senders, and recipients which customs just green lights (because they're overwhelmed and they can't charge duties on any of it), and bam, it's in.

That's all about to change.

The "De minimus" rule allowed packages with a declared value under $800 to enter the country without going through customs in most cases. Volume has gone up from a hundred million to a BILLION packages a year. Everyone from trade unions screaming about cheap goods putting them out of work to the police saying this is a primary way drugs are smuggled into the country have been demanding something be done.

And of course, it's a huge potential source of $$$ for the government, the primary motivation.

In anticipation of new legislation to revamp de minimus, they've been laying the groundwork to build the capacity to inspect every parcel coming into the country. JFK has a huge new facility, run by a contractor, with high speed conveyors and AI run scanners, on site drug identification lab, that will go on line in January. It'll primarily be staffed by contractors and the company overseeing this operation will be paid based on performance...ie duties charged and packages seized. This is not your typical "I don't GAF" government worker,

No more skipped inspections.

And now the end game, legislation to flip the switch enabling this new regime is about to be put into place. Will probably he law within weeks, though I assume won't take effect until January.

You can stick your head in the sand, call me a "fear monger", pretend gear will be smuggled in "because drugs get smuggled in", blah blah. Yeah, it'll get in somehow, but it sure won't be like it is now, ordering from a huge selection at incredibly low prices.

If you're smart, especially if you're in self directed TRT and really need the stuff, you'll get on it NOW, and stock up on essentials. All gear begins and ends with raws that come from China, there are no US sources.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-lawmakers-move-to-restrict-trade-provision-favored-by-chinas-e-commerce-giants-bcd8fd43?mod=mhp

Is this amount of scrutiny mainly targeted at packages coming from China or from anywhere else, too?