That wasn't my intention (e.g.I was trying to prove a point but I didn't "cherry pick" on purpose) but yes, even if you scale the graphs you showed per million people (I just visually did it based upon total populations), it looks like Sweden is doing better than Italy, France and Spain. Interesting. Since you do seem to agree that "social distancing" SHOULD work towards decreasing deaths, do you have a theory as to why that isn't the case with Sweden compared to Italy, Spain and France? General health of the population perhaps? Population density?
Of course, social distancing/restrictions work to reduce covid-19 deaths. I don't think that's worth debating.
The effectiveness depends on a lot of variables. If it's implemented early enough, it can largely achieve containment. For example, this probably happened in South Korea.
For Europe and the U.S., it was never about containment, it was only about mitigation. In other words, the restrictions were implemented too late for containment as too many people were already infected.
It can be effective for mitigation. Its effectiveness depends on how many people are already infected. Obviously it will work better if less than 5% of population is infected. Not so well if over 25% is infected.
In the absence of mass population testing, we never had the data to determine how widespread infection was at the early stages. Given that so many infected are asymptomatic, it could have been far more widespread than most suspected.
My GUESS is that it was already widespread in Italy and Spain when the social restrictions were put in place. So the restrictions didn't have a dramatic impact.
I also SPECULATE that cultural differences came into play. For example, Spain has had 15-25% unemployment for most of the past 10 years; it's as high as double that for under-30s. It wasn't unusual for several generations to live in the same household before then. But it became much more common for under-30s to live with their parents in Spain due to the economy. I think this made it more likely for vulnerable (older) populations to become infected. I think the same economic and cultural issues apply in Italy to a lesser degree. Perhaps
@Den84 could speak to that.
I don't think it's healthcare. It's essentially free for everyone in these countries.
I don't think it's necessarily the aging population of the country. Germany and Japan seem to have done fine in spite of their older population.
I don't think its necessarily population density either. Germany and South Korea have done fine with higher population density. Spain has done far worse even though its population density is closer to Sweden's.
I'm not an expert on all the cultural differences between these countries. I suspect it is a factor.
Of course, it could be some weird combination of all of the above.
In sum, I do not really know.
It will be up to doctors, academics and epidemiologists to figure this out. Not the politicians and political punditry.