AI, Customs, and the Future of International Shipments. Long read.

[BALLISTIC]

What’s everyone’s take on this?
I remember @Ghoul mentioning something along these lines a while back, and it got me digging deeper. What I found is that this is still in its early phases but looks to be a full launch in 2026.

AI is now formally embedded inside U.S. Customs & Border Protection (CBP) enforcement workflows. This affects not just commercial trade, but every single international package moving into the U.S.

It seems big brother has a new phase where customs screening is no longer mostly manual or random. It’s now data driven, pattern driven, and self learning.

AI Is Now Part of Standard Customs Screening CBP now uses AI risk scoring systems that evaluate incoming packages before they’re ever opened.

These systems analyze:
Shipping labels and customs declarations
Sender/receiver history
Product descriptions
Routing patterns
Declared values
Country of origin
Frequency and timing of shipments

Using natural language processing (NLP) and statistical modeling, the AI looks for:
Inconsistent descriptions
Abnormal routing
Suspicious pricing
Repeated patterns associated with seizures
Links to known high risk shippers or supply chains. Each shipment receives a risk score, and only the higher risk ones are escalated to physical inspection. This allows CBP to process millions of parcels while focusing attention where it statistically matters most.

AI + X-ray = Pattern Recognition at Scale
AI is also integrated into non-intrusive inspection systems like:
X-ray scanners
Gamma ray scanners (these provide a 3d image)
Cargo imaging

Deep learning models are trained on massive libraries of labeled images of:
Concealment methods
Packaging styles
Shapes, densities, and layouts associated with contraband. Instead of just a human operator eyeballing an image, the AI flags:
Unusual internal layouts
Density mismatches
Hidden compartments
Patterns that match prior seizures
Think of it as facial recognition for packages, trained on years of interdiction data.

Trade Level AI: Exiger and Illicit Transshipment. One of the biggest developments is CBP’s contract with Exiger, an AI platform designed to detect illicit transshipment. Illicit transshipment is when goods are:
Routed through third countries
Relabeled or redocumented
Used to disguise origin
Used to avoid tariffs, sanctions, or enforcement

Exiger’s AI maps:
Supplier networks
Shipping routes
Exporter/importer relationships
Country of origin claims
Historical customs filings

It looks for supply chain anomalies that don’t make economic or logistical sense.
This means CBP no longer has to catch things only at the package level, they can flag entire upstream networks.

The Critical Part: These Systems Learn
Every time CBP confirms:
A seizure
A false positive
A legitimate shipment
…the AI gets retrained.

That means:
Patterns get sharper
Risk scoring improves
New tactics get incorporated
Old blind spots close

This is not a static filter.
It’s a self improving enforcement engine.

What This Means in Practice
AIdriven customs results in:
Smarter targeting millions of low risk shipments pass through untouched. Higher seizure rates especially for drugs, misdeclared goods, and fraud. Better trade enforcement tariff evasion and supply chain laundering get exposed. More holds & audits especially for unusual or inconsistent shipments. More false positives early on until the models stabilize

DeMinimis Is Being Rolled Back
One major policy shift is the tightening of deminimis shipping (packages under $800).
That loophole allowed:
Minimal inspection
Minimal paperwork
Massive volumes of small parcels
It’s now being restricted or removed, especially for China origin shipments, because it was being heavily exploited.
That means:
More data collected
More scanning
More AI risk scoring
More enforcement at the parcel level

The Big Picture, isn’t just about catching bad packages. It’s about turning global shipping into a data validated network where:
Origins
Routes
senders
receivers
and contents
…are constantly compared against known patterns of fraud and contraband.

CBP is no longer guessing.
They are modeling the entire trade ecosystem in real time. They will undoubtedly move domestic at some point as well.

So what's the future hold? Law reform similar to cannabis? State level relaxation domestically?

 

[Ghoul]

What’s everyone’s take on this?
I remember @Ghoul mentioning something along these lines a while back, and it got me digging deeper. What I found is that this is still in its early phases but looks to be a full launch in 2026.

AI is now formally embedded inside U.S. Customs & Border Protection (CBP) enforcement workflows. This affects not just commercial trade, but every single international package moving into the U.S.

It seems big brother has a new phase where customs screening is no longer mostly manual or random. It’s now data driven, pattern driven, and self learning.

AI Is Now Part of Standard Customs Screening CBP now uses AI risk scoring systems that evaluate incoming packages before they’re ever opened.

These systems analyze:
Shipping labels and customs declarations
Sender/receiver history
Product descriptions
Routing patterns
Declared values
Country of origin
Frequency and timing of shipments

Using natural language processing (NLP) and statistical modeling, the AI looks for:
Inconsistent descriptions
Abnormal routing
Suspicious pricing
Repeated patterns associated with seizures
Links to known high risk shippers or supply chains. Each shipment receives a risk score, and only the higher risk ones are escalated to physical inspection. This allows CBP to process millions of parcels while focusing attention where it statistically matters most.

AI + X-ray = Pattern Recognition at Scale
AI is also integrated into non-intrusive inspection systems like:
X-ray scanners
Gamma ray scanners (these provide a 3d image)
Cargo imaging

Deep learning models are trained on massive libraries of labeled images of:
Concealment methods
Packaging styles
Shapes, densities, and layouts associated with contraband. Instead of just a human operator eyeballing an image, the AI flags:
Unusual internal layouts
Density mismatches
Hidden compartments
Patterns that match prior seizures
Think of it as facial recognition for packages, trained on years of interdiction data.

Trade Level AI: Exiger and Illicit Transshipment. One of the biggest developments is CBP’s contract with Exiger, an AI platform designed to detect illicit transshipment. Illicit transshipment is when goods are:
Routed through third countries
Relabeled or redocumented
Used to disguise origin
Used to avoid tariffs, sanctions, or enforcement

Exiger’s AI maps:
Supplier networks
Shipping routes
Exporter/importer relationships
Country of origin claims
Historical customs filings

It looks for supply chain anomalies that don’t make economic or logistical sense.
This means CBP no longer has to catch things only at the package level, they can flag entire upstream networks.

The Critical Part: These Systems Learn
Every time CBP confirms:
A seizure
A false positive
A legitimate shipment
…the AI gets retrained.

That means:
Patterns get sharper
Risk scoring improves
New tactics get incorporated
Old blind spots close

This is not a static filter.
It’s a self improving enforcement engine.

What This Means in Practice
AIdriven customs results in:
Smarter targeting millions of low risk shipments pass through untouched. Higher seizure rates especially for drugs, misdeclared goods, and fraud. Better trade enforcement tariff evasion and supply chain laundering get exposed. More holds & audits especially for unusual or inconsistent shipments. More false positives early on until the models stabilize

DeMinimis Is Being Rolled Back
One major policy shift is the tightening of deminimis shipping (packages under $800).
That loophole allowed:
Minimal inspection
Minimal paperwork
Massive volumes of small parcels
It’s now being restricted or removed, especially for China origin shipments, because it was being heavily exploited.
That means:
More data collected
More scanning
More AI risk scoring
More enforcement at the parcel level

The Big Picture, isn’t just about catching bad packages. It’s about turning global shipping into a data validated network where:
Origins
Routes
senders
receivers
and contents
…are constantly compared against known patterns of fraud and contraband.

CBP is no longer guessing.
They are modeling the entire trade ecosystem in real time. They will undoubtedly move domestic at some point as well.

So what's the future hold? Law reform similar to cannabis? State level relaxation domestically?

1. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of new Customs polices / tech begins next year, don’t forget CBP got tens of BILLIONS in funding for new equipment and more personnel, but I hope the dropoff in fentanyl and cooling of trade issues with China delays implementation. I’m quietly bracing for any sign of it happening starting 1/1/26 as worst case scenario. I’m sure we’d get clues from reports here regarding packs coming through customs first half of Jan. If not Jan, then Oct would be the usual time for new policies / procedures to kick in.

2. I think we have a unique opportunity to get AAS lowered to Sched 4, and Test maybe taken off entirely. I’m going to try and ramp up some coordinated messaging to the commission looking for feedback on Testosterone policy reform in the next few weeks. This may be the best shot in a generation to get the government to change its stance on PEDs of all types, including lifting the “no off label use” of rHGH restrictions.

 

[FuriousAngus]

Could this not be played in favor certain operations? I can see sources sending completely legal (but identical to illegal packages in look and content, think test vials but actually include pure MCT oil as advertised) packages using suspicious routes to train AI to trust these packages since everytime they are opened it turns out they're legal, and then once AI is trained they start the operation using that route?

I'm sure sources can think of way more sophisticated methods.

 

[BALLISTIC]

1. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of new Customs polices / tech begins next year, don’t forget CBP got tens of BILLIONS in funding for new equipment and more personnel, but I hope the dropoff in fentanyl and cooling of trade issues with China delays implementation. I’m quietly bracing for any sign of it happening starting 1/1/26 as worst case scenario. I’m sure we’d get clues from reports here regarding packs coming through customs first half of Jan. If not Jan, then Oct would be the usual time for new policies / procedures to kick in.

2. I think we have a unique opportunity to get AAS lowered to Sched 4, and Test maybe taken off entirely. I’m going to try and ramp up some coordinated messaging to the commission looking for feedback on Testosterone policy reform in the next few weeks. This may be the best shot in a generation to get the government to change its stance on PEDs of all types, including lifting the “no off label use” of rHGH restrictions.

I agree, and typical is new implementation with the fiscal year, so October is more than likely the launch of full scale implementation. Government likes October.

Gathering items now for a rainy day seems intelligent with restrictions being higher than previous but not what all this new tech develops for the future.

I also agree with you on the law aspect. With a strong enough push AAS could have an even greater reduction. It doesn't seem far fetched as we're only trying to advance ourselves, it's not inebriating, and poses no potential health risk outside the end users. Narcotics and substances which pose a direct threat to the public are a different issue. Honestly it's been telling with more openness about AAS use in the public but it's nowhere near where it needs to be. Cannabis for instance had a huge following. AAS is unknown to a large majority of the public and they go off the term "roid rage" as a catch all.

 

[BALLISTIC]

Could this not be played in favor certain operations? I can see sources sending completely legal (but identical to illegal packages in look and content, think test vials but actually include pure MCT oil as advertised) packages using suspicious routes to train AI to trust these packages since everytime they are opened it turns out they're legal, and then once AI is trained they start the operation using that route?

I'm sure sources can think of way more sophisticated methods.

I'd have to have more inside knowledge of the tech, but in theory certainly. Smugglers have always found a way. I was reading about horse saddles that were taking apart and so precisely packed with cocaine through the saddle seat stuffing it was 5kilos per saddle. They got caught by a random dog sniff, otherwise it was genius. The powder was all throughout the stuffing without any packaging. This would obviously require a process for the dealers to collect once obtained, but it passed all technology as it didn't show up.

 

[shredded.lyfe]

These systems are already in place in Australian Customs.

Wouldn't worry about it for oils and peps.

Theirs hands are already full dealing with the more profitable contraband.

Besides if the president is a criminal paedophile i don't think we're moving in the direction of a society that cares very much about laws being broken unless someone's bottom line is affected.

 

[BigDadd7]

It seems prudent to continue stocking up.

 

[nullandvoid]

These systems are already in place in Australian Customs.

Wouldn't worry about it for oils and peps.

Theirs hands are already full dealing with the more profitable contraband.

Besides if the president is a criminal paedophile i don't think we're moving in the direction of a society that cares very much about laws being broken unless someone's bottom line is affected.

Surely you could have conveyed your message without inserting politics? Your jab does nothing of value.

 

[shredded.lyfe]

Surely you could have conveyed your message without inserting politics? Your jab does nothing of value.

Your administration influences the whole working structure from the top down.

Hard truth to swallow? Again I reiterate, worrying about criminal activities seems pointless unless you're cutting in on the criminals in charge bottom line.

So glp1s potentially have a target on their head due to eli lilly but they were friendlier with a blue administration than a red one (oddly enough).

Outside of that you'll have no issues getting through these predictive models because they're actually pretty dumb and the less human hands and eyes the better.

 

[BALLISTIC]

These systems are already in place in Australian Customs.

Wouldn't worry about it for oils and peps.

Theirs hands are already full dealing with the more profitable contraband.

Besides if the president is a criminal paedophile i don't think we're moving in the direction of a society that cares very much about laws being broken unless someone's bottom line is affected.

They're not worried

Your administration influences the whole working structure from the top down.

Hard truth to swallow? Again I reiterate, worrying about criminal activities seems pointless unless you're cutting in on the criminals in charge bottom line.

So glp1s potentially have a target on their head due to eli lilly but they were friendlier with a blue administration than a red one (oddly enough).

Outside of that you'll have no issues getting through these predictive models because they're actually pretty dumb and the less human hands and eyes the better.

The politics aren't needed, ultimately despite what anyone thinks the US is the largest import of goods.

This technology will ensure that whatever admin takes control receives the profit margins they want. Labeling the technology red or blue is insignificant.

Agenda will matter, and that is conspiracy speculation. What isn't conspiracy is this tech will advance further in time and potentially damage a physical, mental, and hobby driven enjoyment we all find beneficial for personal reasons.

Humans error on the side of caution. AI doesn't concern itself with errors, it receives positive or negative feedback from seizures identified and self learns, promoting further intelligence.

Humans look at screens, AI will identify density changes, structural compounds, identification of odor, and self educate.

For example: baby powder listed for customs, doesn't have the density typically identified, the package is checked by humans. It test positive for cocaine. The system is confirmed educated and learns density change. This applies to AAS raw material, prescription pills vs ugl. So on...

 

[bananafeet]

They're not worried
The politics aren't needed, ultimately despite what anyone thinks the US is the largest import of goods.

This technology will ensure that whatever admin takes control receives the profit margins they want. Labeling the technology red or blue is insignificant.

Agenda will matter, and that is conspiracy speculation. What isn't conspiracy is this tech will advance further in time and potentially damage a physical, mental, and hobby driven enjoyment we all find beneficial for personal reasons.

Humans error on the side of caution. AI doesn't concern itself with errors, it receives positive or negative feedback from seizures identified and self learns, promoting further intelligence.

Humans look at screens, AI will identify density changes, structural compounds, identification of odor, and self educate.

For example: baby powder listed for customs, doesn't have the density typically identified, the package is checked by humans. It test positive for cocaine. The system is confirmed educated and learns density change. This applies to AAS raw material, prescription pills vs ugl. So on...

The only redeeming feature about our current era is how disillusioned people are and how inept our government is.

Ghoul warned about this shit ages ago before QSC got shuttered. I think you're right that the main driver of this change won't be health outcomes but capturing lost profit on imports. Especially when the government starts to run out of money...

If you look at my country (Australia) the over-taxation of tobacco has created such a large illicit market that the major tobacco manufacturers are considering withdrawing from the market in the near future due to poor sales. It's something like a 7 billion dollar industry that appeared relatively overnight.

https://www.ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics/in-detail/tax-gap/q-z-tax-gaps/tobacco-tax-gap/latest-estimates-and-findings

Now keep in mind I live on an island. I find it hard to believe that any country with a large enough border won't have things smuggled in. But I think quality will definitely suffer.

I think both of our countries have become largely risk adverse and litigious, I don't see them rolling back restrictions on things like PEDs, tobacco, firearms etc

As for AI. This usage case is probably one of the near perfect uses of it. AI is fantastic at pattern matching and languages. However.... It will still need some kind of verification step to sanity check the system. I'd say the system would have to be semi automated. The technology isn't mature enough to allow for total automation. This means people will be involved in the process.

Given the sheer quantity of mail, even a small margin of error would generate so much backlog it would be impossible to check. Imagine having to check 10,000 images. Now imagine having to physically check 10,000 parcels. The labour participation is exponential depending on how many steps are involved.

Government employees are lazy as well, and the work would be highly repetitive. Based on this alone I'd say we have a few years left.... Hopefully

 

[BALLISTIC]

The only redeeming feature about our current era is how disillusioned people are and how inept our government is.

Ghoul warned about this shit ages ago before QSC got shuttered. I think you're right that the main driver of this change won't be health outcomes but capturing lost profit on imports. Especially when the government starts to run out of money...

If you look at my country (Australia) the over-taxation of tobacco has created such a large illicit market that the major tobacco manufacturers are considering withdrawing from the market in the near future due to poor sales. It's something like a 7 billion dollar industry that appeared relatively overnight.

https://www.ato.gov.au/about-ato/research-and-statistics/in-detail/tax-gap/q-z-tax-gaps/tobacco-tax-gap/latest-estimates-and-findings

Now keep in mind I live on an island. I find it hard to believe that any country with a large enough border won't have things smuggled in. But I think quality will definitely suffer.

I think both of our countries have become largely risk adverse and litigious, I don't see them rolling back restrictions on things like PEDs, tobacco, firearms etc

As for AI. This usage case is probably one of the near perfect uses of it. AI is fantastic at pattern matching and languages. However.... It will still need some kind of verification step to sanity check the system. I'd say the system would have to be semi automated. The technology isn't mature enough to allow for total automation. This means people will be involved in the process.

Given the sheer quantity of mail, even a small margin of error would generate so much backlog it would be impossible to check. Imagine having to check 10,000 images. Now imagine having to physically check 10,000 parcels. The labour participation is exponential depending on how many steps are involved.

Government employees are lazy as well, and the work would be highly repetitive. Based on this alone I'd say we have a few years left.... Hopefully

I wanted to write a longer reply, but you hit it all. So I simply concur. All valid points.

The only thing I constantly think about is what do we really know. The government is great at keeping things secretive. As time progress they release information, only because it's outdated, and they're farther along in advancements.

 

[BALLISTIC]

I find this to be extremely interesting as it's changing everything. @Ghoul @bananafeet

Muon Tomography is Real

It changes everything Muon tomography is not sci-fi. It’s already being piloted by U.S. and allied governments for exactly what can’t be seen by gamma-ray or X-ray scanners.

Muons come from cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere.

They are extremely energetic, naturally occurring, penetrate meters of solid metal/material. Unlike X-rays you cannot block them, you cannot shield them, you cannot fake their interaction. You don’t shine anything at the cargo, you observe how the universe itself passes through it.

Muon scanners produce enormous datasets...Millions of particle tracks per scan. Humans can’t interpret this.
AI does without human influence by determining, pattern recognition, material classification, anomaly detection, comparison to known cargo signatures.

So now the system can learn what normal cargo looks like, flag things that violate physics expectations, reconstruct hidden objects automatically, and verify molecular density.

Muon tomography is already deployed in nuclear facilities, military installations, high security ports, pilot cargo screening lanes.

The reason you don’t see it everywhere yet is obvious cost, throughput speed, infrastructure requirements. But without a doubt that's happening and will only develope further. It's changing faster than we are actually expecting probably within the next year.

The first wave was for weapons smuggling
Initially. Then it showed absolute promise.

The second wave (starting now) is high value contraband, sanctions evasions, transshipment fraud and strategic goods (chips, tech, pharma, dual-use items).

That is exactly what CBP, DHS, and trad AI platforms are pivoting toward and it will certainly be implemented faster than we anticipate unfortunately.

I'm not fear mongering, but instead sharing critical information. The underground should be greatly concerned because muon tomography does something no concealment method can defeat

It's going to identify things that cannot be denied.

You cannot hide density.
You cannot disguise atomic structure.
You cannot lie to particle physics.

You can....Relabel boxes, use fake bills, route through different countries. You can also hide inside machinery, but the muon doesn’t care. It sees the truth of what’s inside.

 

[H&M]

All in all,we are in deep shit.

 

[BALLISTIC]

All in all,we are in deep shit.

Simply put.

As time continues it only advances. I feel @AllGoodThings has motivated me personally to stockpile for the time being. Haha

 

[Alexthemutant]

until now there was a way around everything every new law,now the will not be any way you think? ai its soo clever…