Well, here I am with the first “In the Pipeline” post of 2021, and damn itall, I’m right back to the stuff I was writing about last time. I still expect this year to be the time when we beat back the coronavirus pandemic, and (as a minor side effect for me) to be the year when I can spend more time blogging about other things than viruses and vaccines. But that time is not yet.
No, definitely not. There are a lot of things happening right on top of each other at the moment, and it’s impossible to say yet how they’re going to balance out. …
I have every expectation that the pace of vaccination will pick up. But the other factor at work is the
new coronavirus variant. Since I wrote that post, it’s become even more clear that yes, B.1.1.7 is indeed more infectious. The data from the UK are no longer consistent with its numbers being due to any sort of statistical accident, and it’s
now been reported in numerous countries and several US states. At this point, it seems likely that it may follow the same pattern in those areas – and in the US – that it did in the United Kingdom, spreading more rapidly until it becomes the dominant strain in these populations.
That’s not good. …
I do not know how to make this decision. I really don’t. We have degrees of harm, probabilities of harm, logistics, timing, public health capabilities, politics and more to consider, and not a lot of time in which to consider them. Anyone who uses the phrase “no-brainer” to describe this call should be dropped from your list of people to take advice from. This is the opposite: it’s a decision that all our brainpower may still not be sufficient to make clear. But we’re going to have to make it anyway.