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Discussion in 'Men's Economics' started by Michael Scally MD, Aug 14, 2011.
Well, they had better bring a shovel!
I don't know if this correction is The Big One just yet, but here is a partial list of 'explanations' for it that you'll hear - none of which bear any resemblance to reality:
 My dog ate my financial report
 The sun was in my eyes
 Global warming
 Global cooling
 Global climate change
 ISIS or ISIL or whatever the fuck it is they call themselves this week
 The oil supply glut
Hackers With Apparent Investment Banking Background Target Biotech
SAN FRANCISCO — For more than a year, a group of cybercriminals has been pilfering email correspondence from more than 100 organizations — the vast majority publicly traded health care or pharmaceutical companies — in apparent pursuit of information significant enough to affect global financial markets.
The group’s activities, detailed in a report released Monday morning by FireEye, the Silicon Valley security company, shed light on a new breed of criminals intent on using their hacking skills to gain a market edge in the pharmaceutical industry, where news of clinical trials, regulatory decisions or safety or legal issues can affect a company’s stock price.
Starting in mid-2013, FireEye began responding to intrusions at publicly traded companies — two-thirds of them, it said, in the health care and pharmaceutical sector — as well as advisory firms, such as investment banking offices or companies that provide legal or compliance services.
The attackers, whom FireEye named “Fin4” because of their focus on the financial sector, appear to be native English speakers, based in North America or Western Europe, who are well-versed in the Wall Street vernacular. Their email lures are precisely tailored toward each victim, written in flawless English and carefully worded to sound as if they were sent by someone with an extensive background in investment banking and with knowledge of the terms those in the industry employ.
Different groups of victims — frequently including top-level executives; legal counsel; regulatory, risk and compliance officers; researchers; and scientists — are sent different emails. Some senior executives have been duped into clicking on links sent from the accounts of longtime clients, in which the supposed client reveals that they found an employee’s negative comments about the executive in an investment forum.
In other cases, attackers have used confidential company documents, which they had previously stolen, as aids in their deception. In some incidents, the attackers have simply embedded generic investment reports in their emails.
In each case, the links or attachments redirect their victim to a fake email login page, designed to steal the victim’s credentials, so that the attacker can log into and read the contents of their emails.
The Fin4 attackers maintain a light footprint. Unlike other well-documented attacks originating in China or Russia, the attackers do not use malware to crawl further and further into an organization’s computer servers and infrastructure. They simply read a person’s emails, and set rules for the infiltrated inboxes to automatically delete any email that contains words such as “hacked,” “phished,” or “malware,” to increase the time before their victims learn their accounts have been compromised.
“Given the types of people they are targeting, they don’t need to go into the environment; the senior roles they target have enough juicy information in their inbox,” said Jen Weedon, a FireEye threat intelligence manager. “They are after information protected by attorney-client privilege, safety reports, internal documents about investigations and audits.”
Because the attackers do not deploy malware, and communicate in correct English, they can be tricky to track. Ms. Weedon said FireEye first began responding to Fin4 attacks in mid-2013 but did not put together its findings until five months ago, when a few of its analysts concluded the attacks did not appear to be the work of familiar attackers in Russia or China, and warranted further investigation.
FireEye would not name the victims, citing nondisclosure agreements with its clients, but said that all but three of the affected organizations are publicly listed on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, while the others are listed on exchanges outside the United States.
Half of these companies fall into the biotechnology sector; 13 percent sell medical devices; 12 percent sell medical instruments and equipment; 10 percent manufacture drugs; and a small minority of targets include medical diagnostics and research organizations, health care providers and organizations that offer health care planning services.
FireEye said it had notified the victims, as well as the Federal Bureau of Investigation, but did not know whether other organizations like the Securities and Exchange Commission were investigating.
Representatives of the F.B.I. declined to comment. Representatives of the S.E.C. did not respond to requests for comment.
Ms. Weedon said that FireEye had not had time to assess the effects of the breaches to see whether the attackers had benefited financially.
In each case, attackers logged into their victim’s email accounts using Tor, the anonymity software that routes web traffic through Internet Protocol addresses around the globe, which can make it difficult, but not impossible, to trace their origins. Last month, the F.B.I. seized dozens of criminal websites operating on the Tor network, in the largest operation of its kind.
“We don’t have specific attribution but we feel strongly this is the work of Americans or Western Europeans who have worked in the investment banking industry here in the United States,” Ms. Weedon said. “But it’s hard because we don’t have pictures of guys at their keyboards, just that they are native English speakers who can inject themselves seamlessly into email threads.”
Ms. Weedon added, “If it’s not an American, it is someone who has been involved in the investment banking community and knows its colloquialisms really well.”
Generally the same kind of stuff that gets corporate officers in trouble for "insider trading". Maybe they are all just sharing email login info to get around the restriction ; ) And even my tiny employer blocks Tor logins, WTF?
Why Global Economic Policy Is Likely to Boost Growth in 2015
Budget plans for the world’s major economies in 2015 show that for the first time since 2009, fiscal policy won’t be a drag on economic growth.
Without a drag from fiscal policy, monetary policy stimulus will likely be more effective—providing a boost to global economic growth in the year ahead.
The combination of favorable monetary and fiscal policy is likely to continue to push asset prices higher around the world in 2015.
The first video I watch I think two years ago, after watching this second video shows me how I changed, I don't know if that economical video is what triggered it, nevertheless I have changed from my flight or fight mode of thinking to critical thinking ( reasoning )....
Dude you just open up a whole new way of thinking for me, this just clears a lot up for me... Thank you scally you are the man!!!!
Also a few months or within a month I can't remember, I started thinking different when I say the post of what is the most power full comonitty in the univers, from the help of others and Google I learned it is fear and time, now I am using everything I can to Benifit my life along with helping others as I go... Wether it be helping them from what benifits me or if I am trying to help them with a different type of thinking... Thank you all who has got my wheels turning you all are badass !!!!
Ps. Sharing these vids
Full Show: What the 1% Don’t Want Us to Know
That would be the worst corruptions suppressed the masses, the mid even days imo... It will become kings and qeens again, if we don't do somthing about it... The 1 percent is officially on the top of my list of exposing corruption...
I have one hell of a long list I am compiling, once I get what I fell is every type of corruption, (that has been choking the life out of what we are trying to live a free, fair, equal, happy life), written down with who to exspose, along with stomping out corrupted thinking out, along the way, of any blind followers, simpathizers, and or the blind members of the masses even if they are wanting change just not qite in the right direction...
What I am doing, and many others, is bigger than what we are, nevertheless it is not to big for us to stop...
edit****That would be the worst corruption has suppresed the mass sense the mid evil days*** edit
Ten Economic Questions for 2015
Question #1 for 2015: How much will the economy grow in 2015?
All of the positives that led to the pickup in activity in 2014 are still present - the housing recovery is ongoing, state and local government austerity is over, household balance sheets are in much better shape and household deleveraging is over, and commercial real estate (CRE) investment (ex-energy) and public construction will both probably make positive contributions in 2015.
In addition, the sharp decline in oil prices should be a net positive for the US economy in 2015. Plus the Federal government austerity is now ending (although there is the risk of more cuts).
A possible negative would be less exports due to the strong dollar.
Lower gasoline prices suggest an increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) excluding gasoline. And it seems likely PCE growth will be above 3% in 2015. Add in some more business investment, the ongoing housing recovery, some further increase in state and local government spending, and 2015 should be the best year of the recovery with GDP growth at or above 3%.
Question #2 for 2015: How many payroll jobs will be added in 2015?
2) Employment: With one month to go, 2014 is already the best year for employment growth since the '90s. Will 2015 be as strong? Or will job creation slow in 2015?
There are some positives for employment heading into 2015. Economic activity has clearly picked up in the US, and there is solid momentum heading into the new year. The decline in oil prices will give a boost to many sectors, construction activity (non-energy related) should increase, and the pace of public hiring will probably increase in 2015.
There are also some negatives. The decline in oil prices will lead to layoffs in the energy sector and have a ripple effect in some communities. The strong dollar will probably impact exporters, and the lower unemployment rate will mean some companies will have difficulty finding qualified candidates.
So my forecast is for gains of about 200,000 to 225,000 payroll jobs per month in 2015. Lower than 2014, but another solid year for employment gains given current demographics.
Question #3 for 2015: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2015?
3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 5.8% in November, down 0.9 percentage points year-over-year. Currently the FOMC is forecasting the unemployment rate will be in the 5.2% to 5.3% range next December. What will the unemployment rate be in December 2015?
Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate. Note: The participation rate is the percent of the working age population (16 and over) that is in the labor force.
Depending on the estimate for the participation rate and job growth (next question), it appears the unemployment rate will decline to close to 5% by December 2015. My guess is based on the participation rate staying relatively steady in 2015 - before declining again over the next decade. If the participation rate increases a little, then I'd expect unemployment in the low-to-mid 5% range.
Question #4 for 2015: Will too much inflation be a concern in 2015?
4) Inflation: The inflation rate is still running well below the Fed's 2% target. Will the core inflation rate rise in 2015? Will too much inflation be a concern in 2015?
Every year some analysts (and clueless politicians) forecast runaway inflation. And every year they have been wrong. Someday inflation will be a concern - but not yet!
Although there are different measure for inflation (including some private measures) they all show that inflation is at or below the Fed's 2% inflation target. I follow several measures of inflation, median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI from the Cleveland Fed. Core PCE prices (monthly from the BEA) and core CPI (from the BLS).
Due to the slack in the labor market (elevated unemployment rate, part time workers for economic reasons), and even with some real wage growth in 2015, I expect these measures of inflation will stay mostly at or below the Fed's target in 2015. If the unemployment rate continues to decline - and wage growth picks up - maybe inflation will be an issue in 2016.
So currently I think core inflation (year-over-year) will increase in 2015, but too much inflation will not be a serious concern this year.
Question #5 for 2015: Will the Fed raise rates in 2015? If so, when?
5) Monetary Policy: The Fed completed QE3 in 2014, and now the question is will the Fed raise rates in 2015? If so, when? And by how much? The Fed Funds rate has been at 0 to 0.25% since December 2008.
For years I've made fun of those predicting an imminent Fed Funds rate increase. Based on high unemployment and low inflation, I argued it would be a "long time" before the first rate hike. Well, time flies!
The FOMC will not want to immediately reverse course, so the might wait a little longer than expected. Right now my guess is the first rate hike will happen at either the June, July or September meetings. I expect subsequent rate hikes to be gradual, and depending on the timing of the first rate hike, I expect rates to be close to 1% at the end of 2015.
The old saying on Wall Street with regards to rate hikes is "3 steps and a stumble". I don't think there is an validity to the saying, but I expect to hear it on CNBC in 2015!
2015 Biotech Charity Contest
Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK)