We are now https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mueller-seeks-roger-stones-testimony-to-house-intelligence-panel-suggesting-special-counsel-is-near-end-of-probe-of-trump-adviser/2018/12/19/ac5c3ee6-0226-11e9-b5df-5d3874f1ac36_story.html?utm_term=.4260c01a06ed (learning that the special counsel is seeking a transcript) of longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone’s testimony to Congress, to determine whether he concealed advance knowledge of a public dump of Democratic emails stolen by Russia.
This could help determine whether people around President Trump conspired with Russian electoral sabotage or create an incentive for Stone to cooperate — meaning the case is inexorably advancing.
Meanwhile, the Senate https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-signals-it-might-accept-a-short-term-spending-bill-to-avert-shutdown/2018/12/19/63148a02-0395-11e9-9122-82e98f91ee6f_story.html?utm_term=.7659849c3a6c (just voted to keep the government open) into February, but without the $5 billion in border-wall money Trump craves. The House is expected to follow suit. It’s unclear whether Trump will go along, but this makes it more likely that he’ll fold, at least for now.
These two developments provide a hint as to what will likely happen next year: Trump’s mounting legal travails and his increasingly unhinged demands for victories like the wall — ones that will thrill his #MAGAhatter base and no one else — may well grow more tightly intertwined as narrative lines. As the former leads Trump to increasingly fall back on his base for support, he’ll need the latter to keep his voters energized, which means keeping them persuaded he’s “winning.”
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Trumpism sits on a shrinking island of public support. Ron Brownstein
recently surveyed multiple polls and noted that the wall — a grand symbol of Trump’s immigration narrative and agenda — is overwhelmingly unpopular among precisely the voter groups that moved away from Republicans to fuel the big Democratic victory. As Brownstein concluded, Trump’s continued push for the wall has left the GOP in the precarious position of “trying to extract greater advantage from groups that are shrinking.”
Trump has left little doubt that this will continue in to next year. And there’s a deep irony to this. If ongoing probes bear fruit, Trump will double down on his immigration demands to keep his base in line. Republicans will cast that as the pro-rule of law stance. In reality, support for the investigations revealing the true depths of Trump’s corruption and lawlessness, and resistance to his cruel and arbitrary immigration policies, will constitute the true rule of law positions.