Trump Timeline ... Trumpocalypse



The idea of invoking “emergency powers” was a last grasp for the leverage Trump had already abdicated, and it had to be abandoned for fear of what the courts and public opinion would say.

After the January 8 Oval Office address, little doubt remains of how this shutdown will end. Sooner or later—probably sooner—it will end the way Trump’s threats of nuclear war upon North Korea ended: with a sudden Trump about-face. It is now only a matter of time. The polls will arrive over the next hours. Democrats and Republicans will both see that Trump did not move public opinion in his favor. They might see that Trump could not even motivate very many Americans to watch him. The panic slowly building among congressional Republicans will boil. Trump, trapped without a decent exit in a predicament of his own making, will yield everything and get nothing.

Trump will cope by locking himself into the Fox News closed-feedback system of flattering disinformation, emerging only to emit enraged tweets pretending he won big and denouncing the media for reporting otherwise. He might even convince himself to believe it. His political allies will repeat it without believing it.

But he will have lost. Lost humiliatingly. And he will have done it almost entirely to himself, before the amazed eyes of the opponents who, dumbfounded, watched him do it to himself, without a plan or even much of a reason, other than the empty and fleeting joy of feeling briefly powerful by inflicting pain.
 


Divisions grew among congressional Republicans on Tuesday over President Trump’s shutdown strategy, as a number of lawmakers expressed consternation over the possibility that he’d declare a national emergency to build his border wall, while others voiced some support for Democrats’ plans to reopen most of the government without the wall money Trump has demanded.

Ahead of a nationally televised address by Trump, Vice President Pence lobbied House Republicans behind closed doors to stand with the president, reminding them that Trump would not sign any spending bills passed by Democrats unless he gets the wall funding he wants and urging them to reject the Democratic strategy.

But in a potentially perilous sign for Trump on the 18th day of the partial shutdown, cracks were multiplying within GOP ranks even before Pence ventured to Capitol Hill late Tuesday. The dissension was especially evident over whether Trump should declare a national emergency that would allow him to circumvent Congress and draw on military construction funds to build his wall, with some normally reliable supporters voicing concerns over the approach.
 


On December 22, 2018, the second-longest shutdown of the federal government in United States history began. On December 23, the body of Jakelin Caal Maquin was returned to Guatemala; she was a seven-year-old who died in a Texas border camp. On December 24, another child from Guatemala, eight-year-old Felipe Gómez Alonzo, died after seven days in U.S. border patrol custody. That day, the President tweeted, “I am all alone (poor me) in the White House waiting for the Democrats to make a deal on desperately needed border security. At some point the Democrats not wanting to make a deal will cost our Country more money than the Border Wall we are all talking about. Crazy!”

Poor me, he says, as the deaths mount and the country collapses. Poor me, Mr. Trump similarly implored in his address to the nation Tuesday night: it was an eight-minute teleprompter speech filled with lies about the danger of Central American migrants and threats to let a national security crisis he created continue unless Democrats bow to his ever-changing will.

The speech was akin to a hostage video, and American viewers were his captive audience. We watched because the stakes felt too high to turn away. We watched because Mr. Trump has taunted us with talk of declaring a “national emergency” – an act which gives him the power to do things like kill the internet, freeze bank accounts, and turn military troops into a domestic police force. We watched because Mr. Trump has long applauded death through his praise of dictators and criminals. We watched because the path to American autocracy was laid out upon his election, and we wanted to know which victims were next.

That is the sick and slick vendetta of America’s reality-TV President.

...

There is no life more valuable than another, no victim unworthy of grief – but Mr. Trump’s zero-sum, xenophobic rhetoric tries to convince you there is. This calculated cruelty is also used as a rhetorical bludgeon against his actual enemy, the Democrats, whose attempts at accountability impede Mr. Trump’s apparent attempts at autocratic consolidation.

Their dispute is not about national security: the only security Mr. Trump is concerned with is his own. With the government shut down, he can capitalize on chaos and operate with greater impunity. His speech was not a public address: it was a shakedown proclamation built on venom and vengeance. It will not be his last.
 


A source close to President Trump tells Jonathan Swan that he thinks a declaration of a national emergency at the border — which Trump stopped short of last night — remains the most likely ultimate option, because of the latitude it gives the president.

Yes, but: Conservatives, including sources in the conservative legal orbit surrounding Trump, don’t like what they view as an abuse of this authority.

Meanwhile, the White House Office of Management and Budget has been exploring other creative ways to get Trump his wall money without having to go through Congress, according to a source close to Russ Vought, a top OMB official.
  • OMB, at Trump's behest, is exploring whether he can tap Pentagon resources to fund the wall without going to Congress, the source said.
  • The Pentagon option is one of a couple of possibilities being seriously contemplated, per the source.
  • Any such move, of course, would face political headwinds, given that even the most obscure pots of federal money have members of Congress jealously guarding them.
Privately, President Trump "dismissed his own new strategy as pointless," the N.Y. Times' Peter Baker reports and I've confirmed:
  • "In an off-the-record lunch with television anchors hours before the address, he made clear in blunt terms that he was not inclined to give the speech or go to Texas [for a border visit tomorrow], but was talked into it by advisers."
"It’s not going to change a damn thing, but I’m still doing it," Trump said.
  • "The trip was merely a photo opportunity, he said. 'But,' he added, gesturing at his communications aides Bill Shine, Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Kellyanne Conway, 'these people behind you say it’s worth it.'"
 


The only thing surprising about https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pence-calls-on-democrats-in-congress-to-accede-to-wall-funding-demand-end-shutdown/2019/01/08/944291ac-1338-11e9-90a8-136fa44b80ba_story.html (President Trump’s address) from the Oval Office on Tuesday night was how totally unnecessary and un-newsworthy it was. Trump did not declare he was reopening the government. He did not issue an “emergency” declaration. He did not even offer any new arguments for a border wall that voters say they don’t want for a crisis that doesn’t exist. Instead, he delivered a weak, unconvincing promise to sit down with Democrats. Never has he looked so helpless and small.

In short, the president snookered the networks into giving him free time to commune with his base. They should not make that mistake again.
 
PRIME TIME LIAR
https://claytoonz.com/2019/01/09/prime-time-liar/

Last night, Donald Trump made news with a prime time address from the prestigious setting of the Oval Office. I mean, it was news if you’re a Trump sycophant who believes a 72-year-old racist, sniffy bloviating Cheeto-skinned fear monger repeating the same arguments from the past three years off a teleprompter with the reading level of a third grader is news.

In 2014, the major networks refused to air a prime-time address by President Obama because they deemed it too political. Last night, they aired one from Donald Trump where he argued that Democrats should end his government shutdown by funding his racist medieval vanity project so rapists and murderers would stop crossing our southern border. I’m glad it didn’t get political.

The latest talking point from the stupidest and most racist administration in American history is “crisis.”

Yes, we have a crisis on the border if you can ignore the facts that illegal border crossings have been decreasing steadily over the past decade, most drugs entering this nation pass through ports of entry, people here illegally commit far less violent crimes than those born here naturally, and most here illegally entered with visas.

All of the above was fact-checked by one news anchor who also reported that the $5.7 billion the shutdown is over was requested, not by law enforcement as Trump claimed, but by Trump himself. The anchor also called Trump out over his claim that the new trade deal with Mexico will pay for the wall, by pointing out the deal is not yet complete. That anchor was Shep Smith of Fox News.

Trump also claimed the wall would pay for itself. He didn’t explain how so we’re all to assume the wall will get a job.

There is a crisis on the border, but it’s not crossings. It’s Trump’s policy of family separation and putting children in detention camps. In addition to the shutdown, Trump owns a humanitarian crisis.

Trump’s address would have made news if he used it to declare a “national emergency,” but he didn’t. That is a good thing because the only national emergency for Trump is that government employees won’t be paid this Friday, he’s losing support, and he’s owning this shutdown.

If the border crisis is such a national emergency, then how does it make sense to have the government shutdown? How will $5.7 billion, a down payment for a construction project that will take years and be much more expensive, be an immediate solution?

Trump let radio talk show host bungholes cajole him into this shutdown and now he’s in a corner he can’t get out of. If he crumbles, his entire argument for the wall and Mexico ever paying for it is over. If he holds firm, he’ll continue to hurt 800,000 government employees and the families and local economies that rely on their income.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer gave a rebuttal, while sharing a podium and looking goofy. But their argument made sense. End the shutdown and continue negotiating about border security. Democrats will support funding for the border, just not a stupid and useless wall.

Trump’s address was to save his skin among his base, but all he did was repeat the same arguments he made over the past week to the press and on Twitter. He blamed Democrats, claimed they don’t support border security, and lied about the dangers of immigrants. And, he did it without any energy or enthusiasm.

It was later reported that Trump didn’t want to give the speech or go to Texas later this week for a border photo-op. In an off-the-record luncheon, he told reporters, “It’s not going to change a damn thing, but I’m still doing it,” and that the Texas trip is just a “photo opportunity.” Somehow, all that got on the record.

Don’t expect the public mood to shift in Trump’s favor. He made the same argument about the border and created lies about migrant caravans during the campaign for the midterms elections. America responded by voting overwhelmingly against the Trump agenda. The majority of Americans are rejecting racism and xenophobia.

Once again, Trump proved he can’t be trusted. This time, the networks got burned. Maybe they’ll remember this non-news event the next time Trump asks to use their networks for a prime-time address. But, they probably didn’t learn anything.

I expect more Republicans to call to end the shutdown before this day is over. I also expect Trump to end the shutdown soon and tell us we should all thank him for that. His supporters will echo that and he was the mature one for ending it…after starting it. That is not a bold prediction.

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THREAD: I'm just an advertising guy, but thought I'd put a marketing lens on the news of Manafort sharing "polling data" with a Russian operative.

Seems benign in the grand scope of everything, right? It's not.

Like politics, the goal of advertising is persuasion. And like politics, we call our efforts a campaign.

At the heart of any campaign, big or small, is data. Data about the market, people, the competition. In politics, this is called "polling." Same thing.

Data is the raw material in the battle that brands fight to win hearts and minds, and get people to choose one product over another. To vote with their wallets.

Gleaning the data is very expensive, it's labor intensive, and it takes a LOT of time.

Big companies will spend hundreds of millions on various versions of this undertaking, and employ thousands of people. The results of all this data, and the way it's sliced and diced, is kept behind firewalls, under lock & key, privileged access.

Data (polls) is one of the most valuable resources a company has.

Anyone who works for a major company knows that Big Data is the business battle of our time. ...

Thread by @dmeaser: "THREAD: I'm just an advertising guy, but thought I'd put a marketing lens on the news of Manafort sharing "polling data" with a Russian oper […]"
 
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