1/ This is one time when the President's indecision may have saved thousands of lives. But having been part of military CONOPs briefings, they always include an assessment of casualties on both sides at the front end.
2/ Even if no American casualties were expected in an initial set of strikes, we have thousands of Americans in the region. Pompeo and others said we had intel about Iran targeting AmCits in Iraq recently.
3/ We also know Iran targets our allies, so Iran's response could have had fatal consequences.
4/ Any responsible NSC process would have included an intel assessment of what Iran is currently up to AND how they would respond to US strikes.
5/ Irresponsibly engaging in that process leads us to where we are today - Iran can use this latest episode to play the victim card and they can use this recent Trump change of heart as the basis for ramping up their own "defensive" activities which could escalate the situation.
6/ Calling off the strikes was the right thing to do from a security perspective. Striking Iranian assets bc of their downing of a drone would not have been proportional and it would have put thousands of Americans (if not more) at risk.
7/ But this very public flip flop is not cost free.
8/ The outstanding question is what now, including whether the Iranians have agreed to speak with us to deescalate this tinderbox of a situation.
@CNN heading to you here in LA.
9/ Rightly, the downing of a US drone is actually not a red line for the President. He is not willing to risk American lives because Iran downed a drone. It was a redline for a few hours and now it isn’t. We have blurred lines vs. red lines.
Thread by @sam_vinograd: "1/ This is one time when the President's indecision may have saved thousands of lives. But having been part of military CONOPs briefings, th […]"