After two weeks of public impeachment hearings where damning evidence was presented by numerous credible witnesses, Republicans remain steadfast in their support for their president. Trump himself has famously said that he could
shoot a man in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose any of his political support. A Nobel prize-winning idea called prospect theory helps to explain Republican loyalty in the face of incriminating evidence. To see how, let’s play a game.
I’m going to flip a fair coin. If it lands on heads, you win $20. If it lands on tails, you lose $20. Would you like to play this game? You might. But what if we raise the stakes to $100? Or $1,000? You might be less interested in playing now. But why? The odds of winning or losing have not changed. Only the stakes have changed.
It turns out that for most people, the gains that come from the prospect of a windfall do not exceed the pain suffered from an equivalent loss. In other words, the agony of loss is a bigger deal than the thrill of winning, even when the amounts are the same. Being averse to loss is a normal human response. Back in the 1970s, psychologists
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky showed that when people make decisions that involve chance or uncertainty, they are likely to overvalue losses, relative to gains.
Now imagine the coin is president Trump, and instead of dollars, winning and losing is determined by your preferred party outcome: Democrats win if he’s removed from office, Republicans win if he stays in office. Members of Congress are more likely to make decisions out of a sense of loss aversion when the stakes are high. And, let’s face it, the stakes are very high. There are two features about current politics that raise the stakes.