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Kirkuk suggests that America has become dispensable in Iraq, writes Emma Sky:
America Has Become Dispensable in Iraq
[Z]oomed out, this appears to be yet another Iranian success. Iran is showing everyone in the region that it is the indispensable ally—not the United States. It is securing its corridors across Iraq and Syria, mediating between the different groups on the ground, while the United States occupies a shrinking space. Once more, Iran is playing the key role, helping to broker a deal between the PUK and the Iraqi government and guiding the Shia militias supporting the Iraqis. Iran has every interest in maintaining these militias—making it increasingly difficult for any Iraqi prime minister to demobilize them. And Turkey, which used to be a U.S. ally, is moving closer to Iran and Russia.
A compromise of some sort could be reached on confederation for Kurdistan and a special status for Kirkuk. But that would require mediation. And it is unlikely to be from Americans.
Why should this matter? Because the Iranian settlement will not bring stability to the region. It will endure long enough to defeat U.S. interests and allies. But left unchecked, Iran and its allies will sooner or later come into collision with Israel. And then the U.S. will be forced to take action.
