Two Weeks of Bitcoin Volatility with BIP141 and BIP148

[Millard]

Bitcoin Scaling Watch: News & Guides to Navigate the Coming Clash of Code - CoinDesk

User-activated soft fork (UASF)
User-activated hard fork (UAHF)

July 18-21, 2-17: BIP91 / BI141

August 1, 2017: BIP148

August 1, 2017 -12 hours 20 minutes after BIP148: Bitmain UAHF

How Bitcoin Could Tear Itself Apart

• By July 21: SegWit2x software is released and supporters begin using it.
• July 21 to July 31: The community monitors how many miners deploy SegWit2x:
  • If more than 80 percent deploy it consistently, that should signal community-wide adoption of SegWit and the avoidance of a split, at least for now.
  • But if a majority do not deploy, expect anxiety within the community to grow as the focus shifts to the Aug. 1 deadline.
• Aug. 1: UASF is deployed by its supporters, who begin checking if bitcoin transactions are compliant with SegWit.
  • If a majority of miners still do not deploy SegWit2x or otherwise accept SegWit, and if UASF supporters do not back down, then two versions of bitcoin’s blockchain could come into existence: a UASF-backed one where only SegWit transactions are recognized, and another where all trades -- SegWit and non-SegWit -- are recognized.
  • If a split occurs, bitcoin will likely begin existing on both blockchains in parallel, resulting in two versions of the cryptocurrency. Expect traders to quickly re-price the value of both, likely leading to massive volatility.

Bitmain Responds to UASF With Another Bitcoin Hard Fork Announcement

• Aug. 1: Bitmain "contigency plan" UAHF

 

[jJjburton]

Bitcoin Scaling Watch: News & Guides to Navigate the Coming Clash of Code - CoinDesk

User-activated soft fork (UASF)
User-activated hard fork (UAHF)

July 18-21, 2-17: BIP91 / BIP141

August 1, 2017: BIP148

August 1, 2017 -12 hours 20 minutes after BIP148: Bitmain UAHF

How Bitcoin Could Tear Itself Apart

• By July 21: SegWit2x software is released and supporters begin using it.
• July 21 to July 31: The community monitors how many miners deploy SegWit2x:
  • If more than 80 percent deploy it consistently, that should signal community-wide adoption of SegWit and the avoidance of a split, at least for now.
  • But if a majority do not deploy, expect anxiety within the community to grow as the focus shifts to the Aug. 1 deadline.
• Aug. 1: UASF is deployed by its supporters, who begin checking if bitcoin transactions are compliant with SegWit.
  • If a majority of miners still do not deploy SegWit2x or otherwise accept SegWit, and if UASF supporters do not back down, then two versions of bitcoin’s blockchain could come into existence: a UASF-backed one where only SegWit transactions are recognized, and another where all trades -- SegWit and non-SegWit -- are recognized.
  • If a split occurs, bitcoin will likely begin existing on both blockchains in parallel, resulting in two versions of the cryptocurrency. Expect traders to quickly re-price the value of both, likely leading to massive volatility.

Bitmain Responds to UASF With Another Bitcoin Hard Fork Announcement

• Aug. 1: Bitmain "contigency plan" UAHF

so would it be smart to buy bitcoin directly before the split or directly after?

When is the split happening?

 

[Millard]

Coinbase will not support resulting separate blockchain if August 1st Bitmain UAHF is activated. This means you MUST transfer all BTC stored by Coinbase to an external address if you want to own BTC on BOTH BLOCKCHAINS:

Dear Coinbase Customer,

The User Activated Hard Fork (UAHF) is a proposal to increase the Bitcoin block size scheduled to activate on August 1. The UAHF is incompatible with the current Bitcoin ruleset and will create a separate blockchain. Should UAHF activate on August 1, Coinbase will not support the new blockchain or its associated coin.

The User Activated Soft Fork (UASF) is a proposal to adopt Segregated Witness on the Bitcoin blockchain and could result in network instability. It is scheduled to activate at the same time as the UAHF.

To ensure the safety of customers’ funds, we will temporarily suspend bitcoin deposits, withdrawals, and buy/sell starting approximately 4 hours before activation of either fork.

If you currently have bitcoin in your Coinbase account, and do not wish to have access to UAHF coins or have immediate access to your bitcoin, you are not required to take any action.
If you wish to have access to UAHF coins or you wish to have immediate access to your bitcoin, you should send your bitcoin from Coinbase to your external address by July 31.
For more information on how to send bitcoin from your Coinbase account, please refer to this article: How do I send digital currency?.

Thank you,

Coinbase Team​

 

[Millard]

Source: What Could Happen to Bitcoin? A Visual Guide to Scaling Outcomes - CoinDesk

 

[Millard]

BIP 91 Locks In: What This Means for Bitcoin and Why It's Not Scaled Yet - CoinDesk

BIP 91 has officially locked in...

...the lock-in is just the first step to activating SegWit on the network, and other steps come with a bit more complexity.

Specifically, the following things need to happen for it to activate:

• There will be a 336-block "grace period," taking about two and a half days, during which miners have time to prepare for activation.
• BIP 91 will activate at block 477,120. Theoretically, mining pools will start rejecting blocks that do not signal support for SegWit (BIP 141). In this way, BIP 91 is a "coordination mechanism" that gets other mining pools to follow along or lose out on mining rewards.
• SegWit could lock-in during the next difficulty adjustment period of 2016 blocks, which takes about two weeks.

The latter is when Segwit activation is "all in the clear," as BIP 91 creator James Hilliard put it.

That's when bitcoin's SegWit upgrade will be official, and an upcoming user-activated soft fork (UASF) proposal, BIP 148, superseded.​

 

[Millard]

Bitcoin May Still See a Blockchain Split on August 1st – The Merkle

While the BIP91 lock-in makes SegWit2x and the UAHF compatible, it does nothing to address the Bitcoin ABC issue. This user-activated hard fork will still go into effect on August 1st and seemingly gains more traction every single week. Various exchanges will support this solution come August 1st.​

 

[alex_trebek]

Holy fuck batman I understand quantum physics better than this shit, like for real wtf lol?!

 

[DrinkFlintWater]

Some articles today are saying fear the upcoming fork; bitcoin cash is stepping up. While other reports are saying, yes, the fork is happening but no need to worry....
Not sure what to believe right now....gonna read more after work tonight.

 

[DrinkFlintWater]

@Millard Baker the current bitcoin is essentially becoming bitcoin classic and bcc will be taking over. Am I somewhat understanding this? Also, whatever you currently have in btc will be doubled as well into bcc.....I guess no one was expecting this....

 

[Millard]

@Millard Baker the current bitcoin is essentially becoming bitcoin classic and bcc will be taking over. Am I somewhat understanding this? Also, whatever you currently have in btc will be doubled as well into bcc.....I guess no one was expecting this....

But be careful about the terminology. It's very confusing...
"Bitcoin Classic" is an entirely different bitcoin implementation. What we call Bitcoin is the original Bitcoin and is currently referred to as "Bitcoin Core". The SegWit/2 are BIPs for Bitcoin Core. The split will be between Bitcoin (Bitcoin Core/segwit/2) and Bitcoin Cash. And yes, you will own BOTH Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash after the August 1st fork.

 

[Millard]

The split will be between Bitcoin (Bitcoin Core/segwit/2) and Bitcoin Cash. And yes, you will own BOTH Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash after the August 1st fork.

@DrinkFlintWater let me amend my previous statement. You will own BOTH Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash ONLY IF you control your private keys.

For example, if Coinbase or GDAX stores your Bitcoin, you will NOT control access to Bitcoin Cash after August 1st.





Update for customers with bitcoin stored on Coinbase
This post explains what customers can expect from Coinbase in the event of a split (or fork) in the Bitcoin network. You can read more about what a digital currency fork is here.

Our first priority is the safety of customer funds. In the event of a fork, customer fiat currency (USD, EUR and GBP) and digital currencies (bitcoin, ether and litecoin) are safe.

On August 1st, 2017 there is a proposal to make changes the bitcoin software. This proposal, known as Bitcoin Cash, is likely to create a fork in the Bitcoin network. This means that after August 1st, 2017 there are likely to be two versions of the Bitcoin blockchain and two separate digital currencies.

In the event of two separate blockchains after August 1, 2017 we will only support one version. We have no plans to support the Bitcoin Cash fork. We have made this decision because it is hard to predict how long the alternative version of bitcoin will survive and if Bitcoin Cash will have future market value.

This means if there are two separate digital currencies — bitcoin (BTC) and bitcoin cash (BCC) — customers with Bitcoin stored on Coinbase will only have access to the current version of bitcoin we support (BTC). Customers will not have access to, or be able to withdraw, bitcoin cash (BCC).

Customers who wish to access both bitcoin (BTC) and bitcoin cash (BCC) need to withdraw bitcoin stored on Coinbase before 11.59 pm PT July 31, 2017. If you do not wish to access bitcoin cash (BCC) then no action is required.

 

[DrinkFlintWater]

@DrinkFlintWater let me amend my previous statement. You will own BOTH Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash ONLY IF you control your private keys.

For example, if Coinbase or GDAX stores your Bitcoin, you will NOT control access to Bitcoin Cash after August 1st.





Update for customers with bitcoin stored on Coinbase
This post explains what customers can expect from Coinbase in the event of a split (or fork) in the Bitcoin network. You can read more about what a digital currency fork is here.

Our first priority is the safety of customer funds. In the event of a fork, customer fiat currency (USD, EUR and GBP) and digital currencies (bitcoin, ether and litecoin) are safe.

On August 1st, 2017 there is a proposal to make changes the bitcoin software. This proposal, known as Bitcoin Cash, is likely to create a fork in the Bitcoin network. This means that after August 1st, 2017 there are likely to be two versions of the Bitcoin blockchain and two separate digital currencies.

In the event of two separate blockchains after August 1, 2017 we will only support one version. We have no plans to support the Bitcoin Cash fork. We have made this decision because it is hard to predict how long the alternative version of bitcoin will survive and if Bitcoin Cash will have future market value.

This means if there are two separate digital currencies — bitcoin (BTC) and bitcoin cash (BCC) — customers with Bitcoin stored on Coinbase will only have access to the current version of bitcoin we support (BTC). Customers will not have access to, or be able to withdraw, bitcoin cash (BCC).

Customers who wish to access both bitcoin (BTC) and bitcoin cash (BCC) need to withdraw bitcoin stored on Coinbase before 11.59 pm PT July 31, 2017. If you do not wish to access bitcoin cash (BCC) then no action is required.

This is a good clarification. I'm not sure what the future holds for bcc. Viabtc is already selling these as bcc IOU's. So i guess we'll wait and see. Also, I transferred btc out of coinbase to kraken(who sent me an email earlier today confirming they are for the split) 5 hrs ago....still pending, lol.
Thanks

 

[Millard]

@DrinkFlintWater let me amend my previous statement. You will own BOTH Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash ONLY IF you control your private keys.

For example, if Coinbase or GDAX stores your Bitcoin, you will NOT control access to Bitcoin Cash after August 1st.





Update for customers with bitcoin stored on Coinbase
This post explains what customers can expect from Coinbase in the event of a split (or fork) in the Bitcoin network. You can read more about what a digital currency fork is here.

Our first priority is the safety of customer funds. In the event of a fork, customer fiat currency (USD, EUR and GBP) and digital currencies (bitcoin, ether and litecoin) are safe.

On August 1st, 2017 there is a proposal to make changes the bitcoin software. This proposal, known as Bitcoin Cash, is likely to create a fork in the Bitcoin network. This means that after August 1st, 2017 there are likely to be two versions of the Bitcoin blockchain and two separate digital currencies.

In the event of two separate blockchains after August 1, 2017 we will only support one version. We have no plans to support the Bitcoin Cash fork. We have made this decision because it is hard to predict how long the alternative version of bitcoin will survive and if Bitcoin Cash will have future market value.

This means if there are two separate digital currencies — bitcoin (BTC) and bitcoin cash (BCC) — customers with Bitcoin stored on Coinbase will only have access to the current version of bitcoin we support (BTC). Customers will not have access to, or be able to withdraw, bitcoin cash (BCC).

Customers who wish to access both bitcoin (BTC) and bitcoin cash (BCC) need to withdraw bitcoin stored on Coinbase before 11.59 pm PT July 31, 2017. If you do not wish to access bitcoin cash (BCC) then no action is required.

Xapo will temporarily suspend transactions and will only support one blockchain after the fork like Coinbase. But unlike Coinbase, Xapo will give customers access to both the Bitcoin blockchain and the Bitcoin Cash blockchain.



Xapo and the forks

In the event of two surviving blockchains, we will support one blockchain, the one with the most accumulated difficulty.

Xapo will give you the choice to withdraw the coins in the secondary blockchain or to let Xapo sell the coins in that secondary blockchain and automatically add that value to your account in the supported blockchain.​

 

[Millard]

Also, I transferred btc out of coinbase to kraken(who sent me an email earlier today confirming they are for the split) 5 hrs ago....still pending, lol.

Bitcoin Cash and a Critical Alert for Bitcoin Margin Traders

Although the Bitcoin Cash fork is expected to be minor, it may be successful. Provided that unforeseen circumstances do not make it prohibitively unsafe or difficult for us to do so, Kraken will support Bitcoin Cash as follows:

• All Kraken clients holding Bitcoin (XBT) balances at the time of the fork will be credited with an equal amount of Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
• All Kraken clients borrowing Bitcoin (XBT) for margin trades at the time of the fork will be debited an equal amount of Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
• After the fork Kraken will enable BCH deposits and withdrawals (with replay protection enabled)
• After the fork Kraken will enable BCH trading in the following pairs: BCH/XBT, BCH/USD, BCH/EUR
• Kraken-owned Cryptowat.ch will support BCH charts and trading
• BCH margin trading may be added at a later date if it survives and trade volume is robust

 

[Millard]

Information related to Gemini’s policy on an upcoming Chain Split

We certainly prefer and encourage a “clean” chain split, no matter which side of the scaling debate wins, but we are preparing for a variety of outcomes. In the event that we detect a chain split or anticipate an imminent chain split, we will temporarily suspend BTC deposits and withdrawals. During that time, we will evaluate our response and post updates here on this blog. We will endeavor to resume deposits and withdrawals as soon as we’re safely able to do so, but that process may take up to a week to complete.

However, as an indication of what we are currently planning:

• The “BTC” balance and trading activity you see on Gemini will likely reflect the chain with the greater total difficulty.
• We may choose to eventually open new order books for the chain with less total difficulty.
• We will make every effort to support withdrawals of the chain with less total difficulty, if it ends up having a significant amount of hashpower, exchange volume, or economic value.

We understand that the policies listed above leave quite a lot to Gemini’s discretion. We would rather have clearly defined policies in place right now; however, it’s unclear what will happen on the Blockchain in the coming days, weeks, and months, and we would much rather play it safe than make hasty, ill-informed decisions and risk mismanaging your funds. As soon as we gain further insight on the situation, we will make additional blog posts to better detail how your funds on Gemini will be secured.​

 

[DrinkFlintWater]

 

[DrinkFlintWater]

So far, I'm liking what I'm seeing after spending the majority of the day trying to log onto several exchanges, etc. Not sure exactly what to make of BCH even after skimming through cointelegraph and the like... What's funny to me is yesterday I decided to buy some last minute BTC from coinbase at a fee of 1.49 whereas its been .99. Keep in mind in a day or two, im gonna be charged with an additional international fee....Was able to send it off extremely fast but I think its time I part ways with coinbase.....side note:I came across an article earlier that people were stating coinbase is violating their "common property law" meaning coinbase is violating their rights to not be able to partake in the fork "bonus"....something along those lines....

 

[Millard]

I came across an article earlier that people were stating coinbase is violating their "common property law" meaning coinbase is violating their rights to not be able to partake in the fork "bonus"....something along those lines....

If BCH is trading at $390+ per coin and Coinbase is holding onto it themselves rather than giving it its rightful owner, then yeah...

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-cash/

 

[Millard]

If BCH is trading at $390+ per coin and Coinbase is holding onto it themselves rather than giving it its rightful owner, then yeah...

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-cash/

Bitcoin Cash currently trading at $656 on Bittrex.com

 

[DrinkFlintWater]

Just got an email from coinbase...BCH to be added by 1/1/18. Any BTC on their platform on 8/1 will be credited...