Bush's cost estimates of the war in Iraq....Did Bush and his cabinet lie or are th

Manuel_Hung

New Member
Earlier this year, experts said the war and aftermath in Iraq would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, a fact the White House refused to acknowledge as valid, even going so far as to fire Lawrence Lindsey for his realistic projections. In September, 2003, Paul Wolfowitz even told the Senate no one said we would know anything other than this would be very bloody, it could be very long and by implication, it could be very expensive." Heres a record of what the administration, in fact, said:

Budget Director Mitch Daniels

On September 15th 2002, White House economic advisor Lawrence Lindsay estimated the high limit on the cost to be 1-2% of GNP, or about $100-$200 billion. (Lindsay was fired by Bush for giving this "high" estimate) Mitch Daniels, Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequently discounted this estimate as very, very high and stated that the costs would be between $50-$60 billion [Source: WSJ, Bush Economic Aide Says Cost Of Iraq War May Top $100 Billion, Davis 09/16/02; NYT, Estimated Cost of Iraq War Reduced, Bumiller, 12/31/02; Reuters News, Daniels sees U.S. Iraq war cost below $200 billion, 09/18/02]

When a reporter asked Daniels yesterday whether the administration was preparing to ask other countries to help defray possible Iraq war costs, as the United States did for the 1991 war, the budget director said he knew of no such plans. Other countries are having economic downturns of their own, he said. [Source: Pittsburgh-Post Gazette, Byrd attacks cost of possible Iraq War, McFeatters, 9/25/02]

Theres just no reason that this cant be an affordable endeavor. [Source: Reuters, U.S. Officials Play Down Iraq Reconstruction Needs, Entous, 4/11/03]

The United States is committed to helping Iraq recover from the conflict, but Iraq will not require sustained aid. [Source: Washington Post, 4/21/03]


Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld

Well, the Office of Management and Budget, has come up come up with a number that's something under $50 billion for the cost. How much of that would be the U.S. burden, and how much would be other countries, is an open question. [Source: Media Stakeout, 1/19/03]

I dont know that there is much reconstruction to do. [Source: Reuters, U.S. Officials Play Down Iraq Reconstruction Needs, Entous, 4/11/03]

Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz


I think it's necessary to preserve some ambiguity of exactly where the numbers are. [Source: House Budget Committee, 2/27/03]


Top Economist Adviser Glen Hubbard

Costs of any such intervention would be very small. [Source: CNBC, 10/4/02]


Budget Director Josh Bolten

We don't anticipate requesting anything additional for the balance of this year. [Source: Congressional Testimony , 7/29/03]

Past Comments About How Much Iraq Would Cost

The Bush administration promised reconstruction of Iraq could be financed through oil revenue, which they said would provide tens of billions of dollars. However, according to the New York Times, devastated and decrepit production systems leave the country unable to make any significant contribution.

Press Secretary Ari Fleischer: Well, the reconstruction costs remain a very -- an issue for the future. And Iraq, unlike Afghanistan, is a rather wealthy country. Iraq has tremendous resources that belong to the Iraqi people. And so there are a variety of means that Iraq has to be able to shoulder much of the burden for their own reconstruction. [Source: White House Press Briefing, 2/18/03]

Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage: This is not AfghanistanWhen we approach the question of Iraq, we realize here is a country which has a resource. And its obvious, its oil. And it can bring in and does bring in a certain amount of revenue each year$10, $15, even $18 billionthis is not a broke country. [Source: House Committee on Appropriations Hearing on a Supplemental War Regulation, 3/27/03]

Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz: Theres a lot of money to pay for this that doesnt have to be U.S. taxpayer money, and it starts with the assets of the Iraqi peopleand on a rough recollection, the oil revenues of that country could bring between $50 and $100 billion over the course of the next two or three yearsWere dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon. [Source: House Committee on Appropriations Hearing on a Supplemental War Regulation, 3/27/03]

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld: If you [Source: worry about just] the cost, the money, Iraq is a very different situation from AfghanistanIraq has oil. They have financial resources. [Source: Fortune Magazine, Fall 2002]

State Department Official Alan Larson: On the resource side, Iraq itself will rightly shoulder much of the responsibilities. Among the sources of revenue available are $1.7 billion in invested Iraqi assets, the found assets in Iraqand unallocated oil-for-food money that will be deposited in the development fund. [Source: Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing on Iraq Stabilization, 06/04/03]

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld: I don't believe that the United States has the responsibility for reconstruction, in a sense[Reconstruction] funds can come from those various sources I mentioned: frozen assets, oil revenues and a variety of other things, including the Oil for Food, which has a very substantial number of billions of dollars in it. [Source: Senate Appropriations Hearing, 3/27/03]
 
Why you little punk, how dare you accuse George W. of lying. How low can you get. After all, he's not only the President of the United States -- he's a born-again Christian.
 
well said. i agree whole heartedly
greyowl said:
Why you little punk, how dare you accuse George W. of lying. How low can you get. After all, he's not only the President of the United States -- he's a born-again Christian.
 
thick said:
well said. i agree whole heartedly

I just wish this would start getting better....they say after the elections we may need another 150 billion for the next year....Jesus, we could do so much more good with that cash here...instead of some fucked up desert!
 
i know what you mean. i was being sarcastic with greyowl. I definitely am disgusted with bush,kerry, and all politicians along with the whole country. who else is ready for revolution?
Manuel_Hung said:
I just wish this would start getting better....they say after the elections we may need another 150 billion for the next year....Jesus, we could do so much more good with that cash here...instead of some fucked up desert!
 
thick said:
i know what you mean. i was being sarcastic with greyowl. I definitely am disgusted with bush,kerry, and all politicians along with the whole country. who else is ready for revolution?
I'm there. I'm so sick of these crooks robing us blind. anymore the only dif. between the two parties is one steals a little more than the other. I'm voting Libertarian I don't care if I'm wasting my vote or not........11
 
A politician lying?? Wow, that's an interesting concept. Oh wait, now that I think about it, didn't our previous president say that "I've had no sexual relations with this woman" while waving that cheesy ass finger of his to all of us? Oh sorry Mr President, you lied! Not only lying to public but lying under oath? He should have been impeached.

It sounds like you would be an ideal canditate for a network newsman intern for one of the three major networks with your agenda.

K-


Manuel_Hung said:
I just wish this would start getting better....they say after the elections we may need another 150 billion for the next year....Jesus, we could do so much more good with that cash here...instead of some fucked up desert!
 
eleven11 said:
I'm there. I'm so sick of these crooks robing us blind. anymore the only dif. between the two parties is one steals a little more than the other. I'm voting Libertarian I don't care if I'm wasting my vote or not........11
11, I havent decided yet if I am going to vote Libertarian or continue to vote for Bush. I see Bush as the lesser of two evils, but the libertarians as the answer. Unfortunately, the correct "answer" will likely never get much publicity or chance of winning.
 
What I want to know is if we are at war with Iraq for oil why does it cost me $2.00 for a gallon of regular Unleaded gas?
 
KTCKSports said:
A politician lying?? Wow, that's an interesting concept. Oh wait, now that I think about it, didn't our previous president say that "I've had no sexual relations with this woman" while waving that cheesy ass finger of his to all of us? Oh sorry Mr President, you lied! Not only lying to public but lying under oath? He should have been impeached.

It sounds like you would be an ideal canditate for a network newsman intern for one of the three major networks with your agenda.

K-


Well, I gues u could say a lie is a lie....but bushes have put my borother in Iraq.....Clinton getting head did not affect me or my family.
 
I understand. I'm glad we got Saddam, but in my opinion it's just about time to pick up shop and move out. But we are entitled to our opinions.


Manuel_Hung said:
Well, I gues u could say a lie is a lie....but bushes have put my borother in Iraq.....Clinton getting head did not affect me or my family.
 
Manuel_Hung said:
Well, I gues u could say a lie is a lie....but bushes have put my borother in Iraq.....Clinton getting head did not affect me or my family.


respectfully saying bro, if your brother joined the military on his own free will, he signed up knowing what could happen.

and secondly clinton getting head and our military getting weak during his time is what caused other countries to think they could mess with us.

btw-hope your brother comes home safely.
 
esco said:
respectfully saying bro, if your brother joined the military on his own free will, he signed up knowing what could happen.

and secondly clinton getting head and our military getting weak during his time is what caused other countries to think they could mess with us.

btw-hope your brother comes home safely.

My brother is a lifer in the Marines. He really love the military life....fought in the first gulf war.....he was home for R&R and said that it is totaly fucked over there kaos is the word he used to describe it.....its political....they are trained to be killers....let them go and they will get the job done....but they won't....they are acting as police men when they were never trained to do so....that is a totally different thought pattern(policing).....500,000 troops were used to invade Kuwait in the gulf war....we have 130,000 troops....we need to triple that number and that will happen after november no matter who wins.....

We missed the window of opportunity.....all the Iraqi's excluding the Kurds are pissed.....we will be there for a decade or more......spending 100 billion a year
 
Bob Smith said:
11, I havent decided yet if I am going to vote Libertarian or continue to vote for Bush. I see Bush as the lesser of two evils, but the libertarians as the answer. Unfortunately, the correct "answer" will likely never get much publicity or chance of winning.
I agree with the lesser of the two. I'd never vote for a Dem.thats for sure. But maybe its time to start making some noise before all our freedom is lost in the name of national securety. I guess we gotta start somewere.............11
 
very true. so is he back now? or is he back over there?

Manuel_Hung said:
My brother is a lifer in the Marines. He really love the military life....fought in the first gulf war.....he was home for R&R and said that it is totaly fucked over there kaos is the word he used to describe it.....its political....they are trained to be killers....let them go and they will get the job done....but they won't....they are acting as police men when they were never trained to do so....that is a totally different thought pattern(policing).....500,000 troops were used to invade Kuwait in the gulf war....we have 130,000 troops....we need to triple that number and that will happen after november no matter who wins.....

We missed the window of opportunity.....all the Iraqi's excluding the Kurds are pissed.....we will be there for a decade or more......spending 100 billion a year
 
I myself have never had to place a value on projects greater than $ 10MM but when the scope is not well defined, the estimate is subject to both pessimism and optimism which is developed from one's own interpretation of the scope.

I honestly cannot fault anybody for trying to guess on the cost of the iraq conflict. The variables were undefined, anomalies are hard to factor in, and ultimately, I do not believe we have had any comparable scenarios to draw from on an empirical basis. Sweeping and clearing an entire country is a bit different from pushing any enemy back out of a small region. Iraq is more similar to vietnam than the gulf war.

We could however put a phone call in to the russians and ask how much they spent fighting the mujahadeen......it seems to be the most similar case.
 
Good point, Hogg. Pricing a relatively small project like the ones you deal with probably has enough issues to deal with. Just imagine what its like when your "project" includes 150k+ employees, thousands of shipping vessels (on air and sea), along with hundreds of other variables. Its not like going down to Apu's 7-11 and saying "Id like a large slushy and $5 in gas." "That will be $6.58."
 

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