Hogg
New Member
The amount of work that goes in to a $ 2MM project is immense for a single individual in a month if the level of analysis is finite (ie, the number represents true cost). A $ 10MM project takes a team of (3-4) individuals a month. I'd hate to guess on the level of effort that it takes to determine a $ 10BN project but then again, larger projects that are unclear are often subject to shotgunning, educated guesses, and but for scenarios.
Imagine if you will estimating the cost of a developing a 100Ksf office building. YOu would look at your dirt buy, utilities, design fees, permits, ancillary features such as parking, landscaping, etc, and then square foot the building. This number would be a rough order of magnitude. Now imagine estimating the cost of setting up offices across the country. You might simply focus on your real estate cost and then adjust your construction cost per area.....simple, fast, a guy could figure out establishing a presence in a couple dozen major metropolitan areas with a few people and a couple of weeks of time....however, were you to ask him, "How many lineal feet of floor duct will be required in each location?" "How many footcandles will we have in the parking lots?" "What are the on-site requirements for emergency power generation? How many KW?" How many pounds of rebar will be used in the slab on grade and tilt up panels? He will not be able to answer these questions because he has not performed a finite analysis. The same would hold true for calculating a conflict. We might understand the cost of running a carrier battle group in a simulated conflict and we might know the cost of a tomahawk cruise missile but there is no way to calculate men, materials, and equipment down to a finite level. Thats why I said I cant hold anybody at fault for it.....I pity the poor bastard who was asked to swing at that ball.
Imagine if you will estimating the cost of a developing a 100Ksf office building. YOu would look at your dirt buy, utilities, design fees, permits, ancillary features such as parking, landscaping, etc, and then square foot the building. This number would be a rough order of magnitude. Now imagine estimating the cost of setting up offices across the country. You might simply focus on your real estate cost and then adjust your construction cost per area.....simple, fast, a guy could figure out establishing a presence in a couple dozen major metropolitan areas with a few people and a couple of weeks of time....however, were you to ask him, "How many lineal feet of floor duct will be required in each location?" "How many footcandles will we have in the parking lots?" "What are the on-site requirements for emergency power generation? How many KW?" How many pounds of rebar will be used in the slab on grade and tilt up panels? He will not be able to answer these questions because he has not performed a finite analysis. The same would hold true for calculating a conflict. We might understand the cost of running a carrier battle group in a simulated conflict and we might know the cost of a tomahawk cruise missile but there is no way to calculate men, materials, and equipment down to a finite level. Thats why I said I cant hold anybody at fault for it.....I pity the poor bastard who was asked to swing at that ball.
