chileandawg
New Member
Oh no, you again, you´ll never learn.
MESO-Rx
Anabolic Steroids
Can touching a barbell in the gym get you sick with the coronavirus?
- Thread starter Michael Scally MD
- Start date
[Video] The toilet paper shortage is driving people to extreme measures.
You have all seen a version of this curve of COVID-19 case loads by now ...
What all these diagrams have in common:
1. They have no numbers on the axes. They don’t give you an idea how many cases it takes to overwhelm the medical system, and over how many days the epidemic will play out.
2. They suggest that currently, the medical system can deal with a large fraction (like maybe 2/3, 1/2 or 1/3) of the cases, but if we implement some mitigation measures, we can get the infections per day down to a level we can deal with.
3. They mean to tell you that we can get away without severe lockdowns as we are currently observing them in China and Italy. Instead, we let the infection burn through the entire population, until we have herd immunity (at 40% to 70%), and just space out the infections over a longer timespan.
The Curve Is a Lie
These suggestions are dangerously wrong, and if implemented, will lead to incredible suffering and hardship. Let’s try to understand this by putting some numbers on the axes.
...
Containment works
China has demonstrated to us that containment works: the complete lockdown of Wuhan did not lead to starvation or riots, and it has allowed the country to prevent the spread of large number of cases into other regions. This made it possible to focus more medical resources on the region that needed it most (for instance, by sending more than 10000 extra doctors to Wuhan and the Hubei region). Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, now observes less than 10 cases per day. The rest of the Hubei region registered no new cases for over a week now.
There will be some countries that do not have the necessary infrastructure to implement severe containment measures, which include widespread testing, quarantines, movement restrictions, travel restrictions, work restrictions, supply chain reorganization, school closures, childcare for people working in critical professions, production and distribution of protective equipment and medical supplies.
This means that some countries will stomp out the virus and others will not. In a few months from now, the world will turn into red zones and green zones, and almost all travel from red zones into green zones will come to a halt, until an effective treatment for COVID-19 is found.
Flattening the curve is not an option for the United States, for the UK or Germany. Don’t tell your friends to flatten the curve. Let’s start containment.
[OA] The Convalescent Sera Option for Containing COVID-19.
As of early 2020, humanity is confronting a pandemic in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). SARS-CoV-2 causes coronavirus disease, abbreviated as COVID-19. At the time of this writing, SARS-CoV-2 is spreading in multiple countries, threatening a pandemic that will affect billions of people.
This virus appears to be a new human pathogen. Currently there are no vaccines, monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), or drugs available for SARS-CoV-2, although many are in rapid development and some may be available in a short time.
This Viewpoint argues that human convalescent serum is an option for prevention and treatment of COVID-19 disease that could be rapidly available when there are sufficient numbers of people who have recovered and can donate immunoglobulin-containing serum.
[OA] Casadevall A, Pirofski L-a. The convalescent sera option for containing COVID-19. The Journal of Clinical Investigation 2020;130. JCI - The convalescent sera option for containing COVID-19
As of early 2020, humanity is confronting a pandemic in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). SARS-CoV-2 causes coronavirus disease, abbreviated as COVID-19. At the time of this writing, SARS-CoV-2 is spreading in multiple countries, threatening a pandemic that will affect billions of people.
This virus appears to be a new human pathogen. Currently there are no vaccines, monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), or drugs available for SARS-CoV-2, although many are in rapid development and some may be available in a short time.
This Viewpoint argues that human convalescent serum is an option for prevention and treatment of COVID-19 disease that could be rapidly available when there are sufficient numbers of people who have recovered and can donate immunoglobulin-containing serum.
[OA] Casadevall A, Pirofski L-a. The convalescent sera option for containing COVID-19. The Journal of Clinical Investigation 2020;130. JCI - The convalescent sera option for containing COVID-19
chileandawg
New Member
Michael, man, I believe in you like my second master after the Buda.
But in a few words, what´s the big deal? is this a bio-weapon? a bullshit regarding political issues from usa to china, wherever.
A huge, cheers
But in a few words, what´s the big deal? is this a bio-weapon? a bullshit regarding political issues from usa to china, wherever.
A huge, cheers
Analysis results of 25,000+ lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Wuhan till Feb 18: epidemiological characteristics and non-pharmaceutical Intervention effects. The key results are summarized below and hope they are useful for the strategies in US and others.
1. In the absence of intervention (before 1/23), the effective reproductive number R=3.8>>1, and dropped to R=0.3 after the massive intervention on Feb 1(centralized quarantine and treatment of all confirmed and suspected cases). This intervention worked.
2. Various sensitivity analyses were done and the conclusion holds.
3. Family transmission is common. Quarantine-at-home between 1/23-2/1 helped and did not work effectively (R=1.35>1), as family members and close contacts may be infected and might affect the neighborhood communities, e.g., going shopping. Centralized quarantine is critical.
4. About 60% of infected cases were estimated to be un-ascertained, i.e,. they scattered in the community and could infect others. This means increasing the testing capacity for early diagnosis is critically important.
5. Healthcare workers and elderly people are at a much higher risk of being infected. The risk of severity increases with age, and elderly people are at a much higher risk of becoming severe (RR=3 for 60-79 and RR=5 for 80+).
6. Women have a lower risk of severity compared to men (RR=0.9). Early diagnosis and early treatments are important.
7. Children's infection risk is much lower than adults, but the risk increased with time.
8. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations (healthcare workers, elderly people and children).
[OA] Wang C, Liu L, Hao X, et al. Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China. medRxiv 2020:2020.03.03.20030593. Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China
BACKGROUND We described the epidemiological features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak, and evaluated the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic in Wuhan, China.
METHODS Individual-level data on 25,961 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases reported through February 18, 2020 were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System. Based on key events and interventions, we divided the epidemic into four periods: before January 11, January 11-22, January 23 - February 1, and February 2-18. We compared epidemiological characteristics across periods and different demographic groups. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the epidemic and evaluate the impact of interventions.
RESULTS The median age of the cases was 57 years and 50.3% were women. The attack rate peaked in the third period and substantially declined afterwards across geographic regions, sex and age groups, except for children (age <20) whose attack rate continued to increase. Healthcare workers and elderly people had higher attack rates and severity risk increased with age.
The effective reproductive number dropped from 3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions. The interventions were estimated to prevent 94.5% (93.7 to 95.2%) infections till February 18. We found that at least 59% of infected cases were unascertained in Wuhan, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases.
CONCLUSIONS Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and interventions.
Xihong Lin
Xihong Lin
Xihong Lin is Professor and former Chair of the Department of Biostatistics, Coordinating Director of the Program in Quantitative Genomics at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, and Professor of the Department of Statistics at the Faculty of Arts and Sciences of Harvard University, and Associate Member of the Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT.
1. In the absence of intervention (before 1/23), the effective reproductive number R=3.8>>1, and dropped to R=0.3 after the massive intervention on Feb 1(centralized quarantine and treatment of all confirmed and suspected cases). This intervention worked.
2. Various sensitivity analyses were done and the conclusion holds.
3. Family transmission is common. Quarantine-at-home between 1/23-2/1 helped and did not work effectively (R=1.35>1), as family members and close contacts may be infected and might affect the neighborhood communities, e.g., going shopping. Centralized quarantine is critical.
4. About 60% of infected cases were estimated to be un-ascertained, i.e,. they scattered in the community and could infect others. This means increasing the testing capacity for early diagnosis is critically important.
5. Healthcare workers and elderly people are at a much higher risk of being infected. The risk of severity increases with age, and elderly people are at a much higher risk of becoming severe (RR=3 for 60-79 and RR=5 for 80+).
6. Women have a lower risk of severity compared to men (RR=0.9). Early diagnosis and early treatments are important.
7. Children's infection risk is much lower than adults, but the risk increased with time.
8. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations (healthcare workers, elderly people and children).
[OA] Wang C, Liu L, Hao X, et al. Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China. medRxiv 2020:2020.03.03.20030593. Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China
BACKGROUND We described the epidemiological features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak, and evaluated the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic in Wuhan, China.
METHODS Individual-level data on 25,961 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases reported through February 18, 2020 were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System. Based on key events and interventions, we divided the epidemic into four periods: before January 11, January 11-22, January 23 - February 1, and February 2-18. We compared epidemiological characteristics across periods and different demographic groups. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the epidemic and evaluate the impact of interventions.
RESULTS The median age of the cases was 57 years and 50.3% were women. The attack rate peaked in the third period and substantially declined afterwards across geographic regions, sex and age groups, except for children (age <20) whose attack rate continued to increase. Healthcare workers and elderly people had higher attack rates and severity risk increased with age.
The effective reproductive number dropped from 3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions. The interventions were estimated to prevent 94.5% (93.7 to 95.2%) infections till February 18. We found that at least 59% of infected cases were unascertained in Wuhan, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases.
CONCLUSIONS Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and interventions.
Xihong Lin
Xihong Lin
Xihong Lin is Professor and former Chair of the Department of Biostatistics, Coordinating Director of the Program in Quantitative Genomics at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, and Professor of the Department of Statistics at the Faculty of Arts and Sciences of Harvard University, and Associate Member of the Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT.
[OA] Anderson RM, Heesterbeek H, Klinkenberg D, Hollingsworth TD. How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? The Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5
Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the economic impact of viral spread. Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for individuals; hence governments must put in place measures to ameliorate the inevitable economic downturn.
In our view, COVID-19 has developed into a pandemic, with small chains of transmission in many countries and large chains resulting in extensive spread in a few countries, such as Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan. Most countries are likely to have spread of COVID-19, at least in the early stages, before any mitigation measures have an impact.
What has happened in China shows that quarantine, social distancing, and isolation of infected populations can contain the epidemic. This impact of the COVID-19 response in China is encouraging for the many countries where COVID-19 is beginning to spread. However, it is unclear whether other countries can implement the stringent measures China eventually adopted.
Singapore and Hong Kong, both of which had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics in 2002–03, provide hope and many lessons to other countries. In both places, COVID-19 has been managed well to date, despite early cases, by early government action and through social distancing measures taken by individuals.
Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the economic impact of viral spread. Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for individuals; hence governments must put in place measures to ameliorate the inevitable economic downturn.
In our view, COVID-19 has developed into a pandemic, with small chains of transmission in many countries and large chains resulting in extensive spread in a few countries, such as Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan. Most countries are likely to have spread of COVID-19, at least in the early stages, before any mitigation measures have an impact.
What has happened in China shows that quarantine, social distancing, and isolation of infected populations can contain the epidemic. This impact of the COVID-19 response in China is encouraging for the many countries where COVID-19 is beginning to spread. However, it is unclear whether other countries can implement the stringent measures China eventually adopted.
Singapore and Hong Kong, both of which had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics in 2002–03, provide hope and many lessons to other countries. In both places, COVID-19 has been managed well to date, despite early cases, by early government action and through social distancing measures taken by individuals.
I watched a guy and I'm assuming to be his son, run out of a store with an entire cart full of groceries, then lift the whole thing an throw it.into the back of truck and take off. The fear and panic being broadcast statewide is driving people nuts. Shit is about to get real in the "great state" of New Jersey
Large events and mass gatherings can contribute to the spread of COVID-19 in the United States via travelers who attend these events and introduce the virus to new communities. Examples of large events and mass gatherings include conferences, festivals, parades, concerts, sporting events, weddings, and other types of assemblies. These events can be planned not only by organizations and communities but also by individuals.
Therefore, CDC, in accordance with its guidance for large events and mass gatherings, recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States.
Events of any size should only be continued if they can be carried out with adherence to guidelines for protecting vulnerable populations, hand hygiene, and social distancing. When feasible, organizers could modify events to be virtual.
This recommendation does not apply to the day to day operation of organizations such as schools, institutes of higher learning, or businessesThis recommendation is made in an attempt to reduce introduction of the virus into new communities and to slow the spread of infection in communities already affected by the virus. This recommendation is not intended to supersede the advice of local public health officials.
Mike, they just shut Boston down. What a fucking time to be alive.
Stay safe you weirdos
Stay safe you weirdos
I got my eye on a humvee at the reserve center down the street. We have a semi imposed curfew of 8pm with basically everything shut down til 5am. Honestly tho, this is getting really interesting....all memes and jokes aside.
It's certainly nothing to take lightly.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-in-us.html
Cases in U.S.
On This Page
This page will be updated regularly at noon Mondays through Fridays. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.
CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/locations-confirmed-cases.html#map, including the United States. In addition to CDC, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html.
COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*
Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†
Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure
Travel-related 205
Close contact 214
Under investigation 3,068
Total cases 3,487
* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.
† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.
States Reporting Cases of COVID-19 to CDC*
* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.
mands
Cases in U.S.
On This Page
- https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-in-us.html#2019coronavirus-summary
- https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-in-us.html#investigation
- https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-in-us.html#reporting-cases
- https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-in-us.html#repatriatred
- https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-in-us.html#epi-curve
This page will be updated regularly at noon Mondays through Fridays. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.
CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/locations-confirmed-cases.html#map, including the United States. In addition to CDC, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html.
COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*
- Total cases: 3,487
- Total deaths: 68
- Jurisdictions reporting cases: 53 (49 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)
Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure*†
Cases of COVID-19 Reported in the US, by Source of Exposure
Travel-related 205
Close contact 214
Under investigation 3,068
Total cases 3,487
* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.
† CDC is no longer reporting the number of persons under investigation (PUIs) that have been tested, as well as PUIs that have tested negative. Now that states are testing and reporting their own results, CDC’s numbers are not representative of all testing being done nationwide.
States Reporting Cases of COVID-19 to CDC*
* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.
mands
Look who dropped in to say hello 
It wouldn't surprise me later down the road that it is discovered this thing has been with us for quite some time. Specifically, November- got a severe cold, inner ear infection, bouts of ongoing vertigo from labrynthitis etc. Colds every other week. Was angry at myself for getting the flu shot this year...why...not sure. Just a thought
Similar threads
Sponsors
Latest posts
-
-
Balls growing and shrinking on hcg
- Latest: Smashformass
-
