I think this is spot on.I think the practice of usually not storing stuff on light might be helping a lot
Once in oil the free oxygen content in a vial likely would contribute significantly too....
A vial of oil that has never been punctured is likely to keep in a dark place at a consistent temp for a VERY long time before the content has degraded to even say 70% efficacy.
Let light, air, and temperature fluctuations in there though and everything is going to accelerate.