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Trump Timeline ... Trumpocalypse
- Thread starter CdnGuy
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1) As Trump ends the year with a flood of lies about his wall, we need to recapture a core truth about this presidency.
Trump isn't “twisting the truth” or “stubbornly refusing to admit error.”
Trump is engaged in *disinformation.*
This is a different thing entirely.
*THREAD*
Trump isn't “twisting the truth” or “stubbornly refusing to admit error.”
Trump is engaged in *disinformation.*
This is a different thing entirely.
*THREAD*
By all rights, the coming year should be another good one for the economy. We are in the virtuous part of the business cycle. Unemployment is at a 50-year low, which is fueling stronger wage growth. Record open job positions combined with bigger paychecks are lifting consumers' spirits and their spending. The robust sales are prompting businesses to expand, pushing unemployment even lower.
Supercharging this virtuous cycle is a massive jolt of fiscal stimulus. Deficit-financed tax cuts juiced up the economy this past year, and while the benefits of the tax cuts are fading, big deficit-financed increases in government spending are now in full swing. The economic boost from this stimulus is temporary, but it will add to growth for much of the coming year.
If the economy continues to grow through June 2019, the current economic expansion will turn 10 years old, marking the longest economic expansion in the nation's history. It is hard to envisage what could stop us from celebrating this happy birthday.
Ah yes, there is President Trump. Given his wrong-headed economic policies and the political chaos swirling around him, the possibility of a recession can't be dismissed. If not by this summer, odds are uncomfortably high that one will hit by the next presidential inaugural.
The president's trade war is the most immediate economic hurdle.
Trump appears to be searching for a face-saving way out of the conflict with China as the damage to the stock market and economy mounts. The arrangement he struck with Europe last summer and the recent new NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico are likely prototypes. That is, the deal will be much ado about nothing, since it will have no meaningful economic consequence.
“The fact that the president is blaming Democrats or blaming anybody illuminates that this is a political game that he is playing and it is not an issue where he is really concerned at all for either American security or the protection of a highly vulnerable population,” said Gregory Chen, government relations director at the American Immigration Lawyers Association. “He’s not trying to solve a problem, he’s trying to enact political gain.”
Chen added that “the lack of preparation rests right at the feet of DHS and this administration for not devoting more resources to the migrants in the caravan and ensuring these families are screened for asylum.”
Having canceled a planned vacation at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida to remain in Washington during the shutdown, Trump has spent the past three days mostly sequestered inside the White House, taunting his rivals on social media. Most members of Congress of both parties have left town for the holidays and a deal to reopen the government does not appear possible before they return after New Year’s Day.
...
The deaths of the two migrant children have sparked outrage among Democrats and immigrant rights groups. Investigations into the incidents are ongoing, and the official cause of death in both cases has not been announced.
Jakelin and her father, Nery Gilberto Caal Cruz, were https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/border-officials-issue-new-prompt-notification-policy-after-migrant-childs-death-went-undisclosed/2018/12/19/70ff43ba-0399-11e9-8186-4ec26a485713_story.html?utm_term=.895744abd77e (not provided water) when they were held for eight hours at a border station in New Mexico, the family’s attorney said, and the young girl began vomiting during a 90-minute bus ride. Her condition rapidly deteriorated and she died of dehydration and shock, authorities said. Customs and Border Protection officials disputed the father’s account, saying water and food were available and that the girl had consumed both after having had no food or water for days.
Felipe and his father were held at a facility in Alamogordo, N.M., on Christmas Eve after days of being shuttled from one Border Patrol facility to another. They expected that the U.S. government was about to release them to await a deportation hearing, just as the smugglers had promised. Instead, the boy vomited and spiked a fever; https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/immigration/father-whose-son-died-in-custody-knew-bringing-him-would-ease-entry-into-us/2018/12/27/4c210bfc-0a1d-11e9-85b6-41c0fe0c5b8f_story.html?utm_term=.b98aad90c15a (he died at a New Mexico hospital). He has tested positive for influenza B, officials said.
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President Trump has a well-documented problem telling the truth.
Fact checkers have compiled lists of all of Mr. Trump’s falsehoods since he took office (The Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-claims-database/?utm_term=.f0fb3ee77790 (counts over 7,500), and The Toronto Star over 3,900), rounded up his most egregious whoppers in year-end lists and scrutinized his claims in real time with https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/lifestyle/style/how-cable-news-chyrons-have-adapted-to-the-trump-era/?utm_term=.5d2df35f9e33 (television chyrons).
Here at The New York Times, we have also fact-checked countless campaign rallies, news conferences, interviews and Twitter posts. After nearly two years of assessing the accuracy of Mr. Trump’s statements, we can draw some conclusions not just about the scale of the president’s mendacity, but also about how he uses inaccurate claims to advance his agenda, criticize the news media and celebrate his achievements.
Yemen’s hunger crisis is born of deliberate policies, pursued primarily by a Saudi-led coalition backed by the United States.
Economic measures, largely imposed by a Saudi-led military coalition backed by the United States, have helped produce what the United Nations considers the world’s most severe humanitarian catastrophe.
And over the past year, the hunger crisis has worsened dramatically, with a 60 percent increase in the number of districts now considered to face emergency conditions, according to an analysis released this month by a consortium of aid agencies. More than half now fall in this category.
Yet even as the world has begun to take note, many Yemenis remain out of reach of assistance. The hardest-hit areas are often the most remote, and the relentless violence coupled with threats posed by competing armed groups have made it daunting for aid agencies to deliver relief. The Yemeni government itself is so broken that it can barely help.
The crisis, at its root, reflects what critics say is the reckless way that Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is conducting war in Yemen against Iran-aligned rebels. The specter of an emerging famine is among the reasons the U.S. Senate this month voted to end U.S. support for the coalition, which is also blamed for killing thousands of civilians in airstrikes.
All presidents until Trump have had formal policy processes and informal ones--"kitchen cabinets" dating back as far as Andrew Jackson. The difference with Trump is he has the most dysfunctional policy "process" of any president, which he largely ignores or discounts.
Instead, he relies on informal advice from a very small group of friends, family and sycophants plus, to an unprecedented degree, 20-30 talking heads who appear on Fox. Because he reads little and is so skeptical of key sources of government advice, like the IC or diplomats...
his Fox Cabinet is relatively more important than past such informal groups. But their clout is even greater because Trump perceives Fox not only as a source of advice but as both a window onto his "base" and to the world at large. What Fox shows is his only reality.
He has very little interaction with voters--he ventures out of the White House less than other presidents and only then into very controlled settings where the feedback he gets is predictable and, often confirms themes and ideas he has seen on Fox.
So those relatively few talking heads shape his worldview to a degree no comparable group in American history has shaped the view of a leader. (Admittedly this is also true because Trump's critical thinking faculties are so profoundly limited.
He does not seek alternative points of view as have past presidents nor does he seek even basic facts. He seeks only support for his pre-existing beliefs, of all his biases confirmation bias is perhaps the strongest and most pernicious.)
The few advisors he had who might challenge him are now gone or will be in a few days. This will only increase the influence of Fox News--which as has often been noted has now been integrated with this White House in an extraordinary way.
With personalities or executives he saw on Fox News holding top positions in his government (Bolton, Nauert, Shine) and former WH staffers like Hope Hicks now working at Fox News. I am a student of how White House policy processes work, have written much on the subject.
I have never seen anything so perverse or dangerous. I've never seen a president so contemptuous of real advice or differing points of view, never seen one with less intellectual curiosity, with less educational or experiential background to support his decision-making.
I have never seen a president who has so undermined traditional sources of policy advice in his own government--whether by ignoring them or by publicly attacking them. I have never seen a president with a weaker group of advisors than this one will have in 2019.
I have never seen a president more isolated. I have never seen a president more dependent on an outside group of profoundly biased, desperately unqualified, often laughably unhinged advisors (Dobbs, Pirro, Hannity, etc.) than Trump gets through his Fox connection.
All presidents have flaws. The policy systems we set up are to help offset those weaknesses and to enable normal mortals to grapple with the often gargantuan decisions of the presidency. This president lacks those.
As it happens of all our presidents he is the one who would have had the most to gain from them. But he is the most immune to them, most dismissive of them precisely because he does not realize his weaknesses. Which brings us to his greatest flaw of all.
In the end, the critical decisions of the presidency rely more on character than anything else. Over time the presidency reveals the true character of the president in ways no campaign or prior experience ever could.
In two years we have discovered that Trump's character is the most defective of anyone who has ever held the presidency. He is not simply intellectual sub-par or misguided in his faith in his own gifts and "gut." He is a malignant narcissist. He is corrupt.
He is mean-spirited. He is venal. He is short-sighted. He is a terrible judge of character in others. He is without compassion. He is without humility. In short, he has none of the traits we would seek in a leader and all of those we should fear.
And he has destroyed the systems that can help a president grow or be better than himself and replaced them with ones that amplify his worst traits and convince him daily that they are assets, attributes, working. That system does this by trafficking in lies and distortions.
It creates an alternative universe in the tiniest, most toxic bubble ever to exist around a president. It gives him the impression that he is competent & successful when the opposite is true. It suggests to him that he is a genius & politically successful when he is clearly not.
And it puts each and every one of us at risk daily. It leads to the crushing toll this presidency has taken--the daily litany of real costs to our rule of law, to our environment, to children on our border, to allies overseas, to our economy,to victims of the enemies he supports.
Processes in the White House and the character of those around the president and that of the president himself often seem remote. But it does not take much scrutiny of the headlines to realize that is not the case.
Daily there are profound costs of associated with this presidency and the dangers of more grievous consequences loom large. Not just because we have the worst president of all time but because the system created around him amplifies his defects and eliminates checks against them.
(A fact not helped by the abrogation of the oversight responsibilities of the Congress during Trump's first two years in office.) We don't have policy processes in this White House. We have policy pathologies. The system is sick and it is putting us all at risk.
We ignore it at our peril & we must actively support the efforts of the incoming House leadership as they work to counter the broken WH system & to restore the elements purged from the president's world--truth, facts, reality, science, history, values and our national interests.
Thread by @djrothkopf: "All presidents until Trump have had formal policy processes and informal ones--"kitchen cabinets" dating back as far as Andrew Jackson. The […]"
Instead, he relies on informal advice from a very small group of friends, family and sycophants plus, to an unprecedented degree, 20-30 talking heads who appear on Fox. Because he reads little and is so skeptical of key sources of government advice, like the IC or diplomats...
his Fox Cabinet is relatively more important than past such informal groups. But their clout is even greater because Trump perceives Fox not only as a source of advice but as both a window onto his "base" and to the world at large. What Fox shows is his only reality.
He has very little interaction with voters--he ventures out of the White House less than other presidents and only then into very controlled settings where the feedback he gets is predictable and, often confirms themes and ideas he has seen on Fox.
So those relatively few talking heads shape his worldview to a degree no comparable group in American history has shaped the view of a leader. (Admittedly this is also true because Trump's critical thinking faculties are so profoundly limited.
He does not seek alternative points of view as have past presidents nor does he seek even basic facts. He seeks only support for his pre-existing beliefs, of all his biases confirmation bias is perhaps the strongest and most pernicious.)
The few advisors he had who might challenge him are now gone or will be in a few days. This will only increase the influence of Fox News--which as has often been noted has now been integrated with this White House in an extraordinary way.
With personalities or executives he saw on Fox News holding top positions in his government (Bolton, Nauert, Shine) and former WH staffers like Hope Hicks now working at Fox News. I am a student of how White House policy processes work, have written much on the subject.
I have never seen anything so perverse or dangerous. I've never seen a president so contemptuous of real advice or differing points of view, never seen one with less intellectual curiosity, with less educational or experiential background to support his decision-making.
I have never seen a president who has so undermined traditional sources of policy advice in his own government--whether by ignoring them or by publicly attacking them. I have never seen a president with a weaker group of advisors than this one will have in 2019.
I have never seen a president more isolated. I have never seen a president more dependent on an outside group of profoundly biased, desperately unqualified, often laughably unhinged advisors (Dobbs, Pirro, Hannity, etc.) than Trump gets through his Fox connection.
All presidents have flaws. The policy systems we set up are to help offset those weaknesses and to enable normal mortals to grapple with the often gargantuan decisions of the presidency. This president lacks those.
As it happens of all our presidents he is the one who would have had the most to gain from them. But he is the most immune to them, most dismissive of them precisely because he does not realize his weaknesses. Which brings us to his greatest flaw of all.
In the end, the critical decisions of the presidency rely more on character than anything else. Over time the presidency reveals the true character of the president in ways no campaign or prior experience ever could.
In two years we have discovered that Trump's character is the most defective of anyone who has ever held the presidency. He is not simply intellectual sub-par or misguided in his faith in his own gifts and "gut." He is a malignant narcissist. He is corrupt.
He is mean-spirited. He is venal. He is short-sighted. He is a terrible judge of character in others. He is without compassion. He is without humility. In short, he has none of the traits we would seek in a leader and all of those we should fear.
And he has destroyed the systems that can help a president grow or be better than himself and replaced them with ones that amplify his worst traits and convince him daily that they are assets, attributes, working. That system does this by trafficking in lies and distortions.
It creates an alternative universe in the tiniest, most toxic bubble ever to exist around a president. It gives him the impression that he is competent & successful when the opposite is true. It suggests to him that he is a genius & politically successful when he is clearly not.
And it puts each and every one of us at risk daily. It leads to the crushing toll this presidency has taken--the daily litany of real costs to our rule of law, to our environment, to children on our border, to allies overseas, to our economy,to victims of the enemies he supports.
Processes in the White House and the character of those around the president and that of the president himself often seem remote. But it does not take much scrutiny of the headlines to realize that is not the case.
Daily there are profound costs of associated with this presidency and the dangers of more grievous consequences loom large. Not just because we have the worst president of all time but because the system created around him amplifies his defects and eliminates checks against them.
(A fact not helped by the abrogation of the oversight responsibilities of the Congress during Trump's first two years in office.) We don't have policy processes in this White House. We have policy pathologies. The system is sick and it is putting us all at risk.
We ignore it at our peril & we must actively support the efforts of the incoming House leadership as they work to counter the broken WH system & to restore the elements purged from the president's world--truth, facts, reality, science, history, values and our national interests.
Thread by @djrothkopf: "All presidents until Trump have had formal policy processes and informal ones--"kitchen cabinets" dating back as far as Andrew Jackson. The […]"
In an exit interview with the L.A. Times, White House chief of staff John Kelly argued that his tenure is "best measured by what the president did not do when Kelly was at his side," including a hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, immigration and security reporter Molly O'Toole writes.
The bottom line: "Trump sometimes pressed his advisors on the limits of his authority under the law, often asking Kelly, 'Why can’t we do it this way?’ But Trump never ordered him to do anything illegal, Kelly stressed," O'Toole writes. Kelly leaves Wednesday after 17 months in the West Wing.
This year has been a dismal one for ethics in Washington. Even without a repeat of the 2017 tide of sexual harassment cases in Congress and not counting the results of the Mueller investigation, the D.C. "swamp" remains as stagnant as ever.
It was a year when President Trump pushed out three of his own Cabinet officers over ethics concerns: Secretary David Shulkin at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Secretary Ryan Zinke at Interior and Administrator Scott Pruitt at the Environmental Protection Agency.
Shulkin ran into trouble first, over the winter. Lawmakers faulted him for vacationing, on the government's tab, in between two important conferences. He was apologetic, telling a House committee, "I do recognize the optics of this are not good. I accept responsibility for that."
Colorado GOP Rep. Mike Coffman snapped back at that: "It's not the optics that are not good. It's the facts that are not good."
We have your children. Right now, they are safe and well—most of https://www.washingtonpost.com/ (them), anyway—and you can refer to our previous correspondence for details about what to do if you ever want to see them again, whether or not I’d like police to be involved, who you should tell about this, and so on. Today, however, I am putting scissors, paste, and stack of old magazines to paper to address a different concern: The nagging feeling I keep having that when this is all over, people are somehow going to find a way to blame me—of all people!—for kidnapping a bunch of kids, locking them in cages in my basement, and threatening to kill them unless someone places a duffel bag containing five billion dollars in locker 62617 at the Harry C. Wheeler Memorial Bus Station in Bisbee, Arizona. In my opinion—and in yours, too, if you want to keep things friendly between you and the man who decides whether or not your children keep breathing—it is obvious that the blame here lies entirely with the uncooperative parents who have stubbornly failed to pay their children’s ransom, despite my very clear instructions.
After all, it’s not like I didn’t pay the $5 billion ransom! I don’t even have $5 billion! That’s why I asked for it in the first place, in exchange for the safety of your children, which seems like a fair bargain to me. After all, what is the life of a child worth? What about the lives of 15,000 children (minus two)? To you, I mean. If your answer is less than $5 billion—and apparently it is, since that bus station locker was still empty this morning—that means I am a better person than you. I’m only asking for $333,333.33 per child, which is frankly a bargain. I’ll even knock the price of the kids I already sent home off the top and make it an even $4,999,333,333.34. If you won’t pay me that right away so I can use it to build a giant steel monument to racism, what kind of a monster are you?
