Economics

Discussion in 'Men's Economics' started by Michael Scally MD, Aug 13, 2011.

  1. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    Now Even Goldman Sachs Is Challenging U.S. Debt Dogma
    Now Even Goldman Sachs Is Challenging U.S. Debt Dogma


    Goldman Sachs economists are wading into the deficit debate, and they don’t seem to be sounding any alarm bells about U.S. federal debt.

    Tax season is here, and with it comes renewed worries about the effect of recent corporate tax cuts on what is now $16.2 trillion in public debt (including Treasuries held by government accounts, the tally recently passed $22 trillion). The Congressional Budget Office now forecasts that the annual federal budget deficit will grow 15% to $897 billion this year, exceeding $1 trillion in 2022.

    Here’s what the Goldman Sachs economists concluded in a note this month: The current path of U.S. deficits is manageable, but “some fiscal prudence—particularly during economic expansions—is likely still warranted.”

    The very fact that Goldman Sachs found it necessary to argue for “some fiscal prudence” shows just how radically the government-budgeting discussion has changed in the past decade. During the financial crisis, ambitious fiscal stimulus plans were scaled down after prominent economistswarned that economic growth suffers when a country’s government debt levels exceed 90% of its gross domestic product.

    This era is clearly different. The U.S. has introduced fiscal stimulus (in the form of corporate tax cuts) with unemployment near 50-year lows. And the Goldman Sachs note is a response to a few high-profile academics who have recently made the case that governments can sustain larger deficits than previously thought.

    One reason for this shift in thinking is the experience of Japan. Its debt has climbed to more than 200% of its GDP with no inflation to speak of, and steady (albeit slow) economic growth.

    Another is the growing influence of economists who advocate for “modern monetary theory,” or MMT. Essentially, MMT argues that government spending is constrained by a country’s real resources, not its tax revenues, and says explicitly that governments borrowing in their own currency have no reason to go bankrupt.

    Goldman Sachs did not mention MMT in its note, and took a more conservative approach. The bank’s economists focused on the idea that deficits are sustainable as long as interest rates are lower than growth rates, which was discussed by former IMF official Olivier Blanchard in a 2018 paper.

    While they didn’t disagree with Blanchard, they warned that interest costs for the U.S. could rise “significantly” if interest rates rise and the deficit grows. If U.S. interest rates are an average 3.75% over the next 30 years, the cost of interest payments could rise to 6% of GDP, up from 2% this year, they found.

    U.S. rate increases are not a guarantee, however. It is difficult to imagine that the Federal Reserve would hold short-term rates high if they were hurting economic growth. And when it comes to longer-term yields, “the impact of higher debt levels on rates are somewhat uncertain,” according to the note.

    The bank’s economists also argued that high debt levels may “constrain a country’s ability or willingness” to introduce fiscal stimulus in a recession, and that growth could slow afterwards as a result.

    But “none of this necessarily means that higher debt-to-GDP is a hard constraint,” they wrote.

    What’s more, their results were different for countries that issue debt in their own floating currency.

    “When we rerun our analysis restricting to countries that issue debt in their own independent currency the effects are considerably weaker,” they wrote. So their research might not conflict with MMT’s thesis, after all.

    That conclusion also fits with Goldman Sachs research on U.S. debt from last September, when the bank said it was “not particularly concerned about the growth or market implications of the U.S. federal debt.”

    Write to Alexandra Scaggs at alexandra.scaggs@barrons.com
     
  2. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    Magical thinking
    Magical thinking - TheMoneyIllusion

    Paul Krugman has a couple of posts criticizing MMT. He tries to be polite, pointing out that at the zero bound their policy recommendations are less bad than those of advocates of austerity. But deep down he must know that this model is sheer madness.

    Stephanie Kelton responds, and continues the long MMTer tradition of being unable to provide a clear explanation of the ideas. Here she responds to Krugman’s concern that massive deficits might eventually push the public debt so high that interest rates rise to a level that puts a big burden on taxpayers.

    First, “there is a devil in the interest rate assumption,” as economist James K. Galbraith has explained. Preventing a doomsday scenario is not difficult. As Galbraith explains, “the prudent policy conclusion is: keep the projected interest rate down.” Or, putting it more crudely, “It’s the Interest Rate, Stupid!”

    And just how is the government supposed to “keep the projected interest rate down”? By magic?

    Yes, by magic:

    Since interest rates are a policy variable, all the Fed has to do is keep the interest rate below the growth rate (i<g) to prevent the ratio from rising indefinitely. As Galbraith says, “there is no need for radical reductions in future spending plans, or for cuts in Social Security or Medicare benefits to achieve this.”

    Rather than presenting this as a problem for functional finance, Krugman should be wondering why the Fed would ever maintain an interest rate that would put the debt on an unsustainable trajectory. I don’t believe it would. If i>g, then debt service grows faster than GDP, which Krugman argues would be inflationary.

    So his hypothetical scenario begs the question: Why would an inflation-targeting Fed permit i>g with a debt-to-GDP ratio at 300 percent?

    Notice that she doesn’t tell us how the Fed is supposed to keep the market interest rate down. It doesn’t just happen by magic. Market interest rates are not a “policy variable”; they are impacted by various policies. While the Fed directly controls the discount rate and the interest rate on reserves, the rates that really matter are market interest rates on public debt. How does the Fed keep them down?

     
  3. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

     
  4. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine



    A couple of weeks ago, Paul Krugman decided to write about modern monetary theory. He didn’t cite the scholarly literature written by any of the academic MMT economists (books, book chapters, published articles or an abundance of other writings).

    Instead, he declared that MMT was pretty much just the economist Abba Lerner’s “Functional Finance” approach from the 1940s and offered a critique of Lerner that he maintained was effectively a critique of MMT. I pushed back, situating modern monetary theory in a broader intellectual history.

    Krugman returned, accusing me of moving the goal posts and asking for straightforward answers to four questions. I responded with what I thought was a well-reasoned, respectful and direct set of answers.

    So-called “finance twitter” buzzed as the tension between mainstream Keynesian analysis and MMT was put on display. Krugman then took to Twitter with a series of tweets calling my analysis “a mess” and declaring MMT to be “a losing game.” He also reminded us of his own record when it comes to “denouncing austerity policies.”

    I want to address what Krugman claims I got wrong and also compare the record.

    ...
     
  5. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    Wrong in a very confusing way
    Wrong in a very confusing way - TheMoneyIllusion

    There are lots of macro models out there: old monetarism, market monetarism, old Keynesianism, new Keynesianism, supply-side economics, Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, NeoFisherism, Austrian, Real Business Cycle, etc., etc. People who believe in one tend to view the others as being at least partly wrong. But where they disagree, it’s usually possible to pin down some specific points of disagreement.

    MMT is not like that.
     
  6. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    America’s Most Profitable Export: Money
    Opinion | America’s Most Profitable Export: Money

    America’s most profitable export product is not oil or medicine or Hollywood movies or Boeing airplanes. It is a small green piece of paper with Benjamin Franklin on the front.

    Last year, the United States exported $65.3 billion of its currency — mostly $100 bills.

    The world needs an international currency, and the dollar is the obvious candidate because the United States, for all its economic troubles, remains the hub of the global economy. United States government debt is the world’s most popular investment, and the bonds can be purchased only with dollars. Oil is the world’s dominant trade good, and it also is priced and sold in dollars. Much like Facebook, everybody uses dollars because everybody uses dollars.

    The popularity of paper dollars, however, requires a little more explanation. Most modern money is notional: Wealth is stored on computers; payments are made electronically.

    I cannot remember the last time I owned or even held a $100 bill.

    Yet foreign demand for the bills known as Benjamins has surged even as the domestic use of dollars has declined. The number of $100 bills in circulation roughly doubled between 2008 and 2017, and experts estimate a vast majority are in foreign hands.

    Remarkably, the Federal Reserve recently reported that at the end of 2017, the number of $100 bills in circulation exceeded the number of $1 bills for the first time.

    The available evidence suggests large numbers of $100 bills are stuffed in mattresses or other hiding places — particularly in nations where people lack confidence in the value of the domestic currency, or the integrity of the financial system, or the safety of private property. Dollars are hoarded like diamonds, except dollars are easier to spend.

    Even America’s enemies hoard American money: American soldiers searching one of Saddam Hussein’s palaces in 2003 found about $650 million in fresh $100 bills.

    The $100 bill is the preferred currency for illegal transactions: gambling, drug deals, sales of weapons. ...
     
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  7. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    Should You Fear the Yield Curve?
    Bond investors don’t know more than the Fed, but listen to them anyway
    Should You Fear the Yield Curve?


    10-year Treasury yield falls to a fresh 14-month low as the bond market sours on the US economy
    Part of 'yield curve' inverts as 3-month yield tops 10-year rate

    U.S. government debt yields added to the week's steep losses on Friday as bond traders lost confidence in the strength of the U.S. and global economies just days after the Federal Reserve downgraded its own forecast.

    The recent downturn in long-term debt yields exacerbated inversion of the Treasury yield curve, the plot of interest rates at a set point in time of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates.

    At 8:30 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.474 percent, off lows around 2.469 percent, its lowest level since January 2018. The 30-year yield fell to 2.913 percent while the yield on the 2-year Treasury held at 2.47 percent.


    Treasury 3m-10y Yield Curve Inverts For First Time Since 2007.

    D2RGrw9WwAYq9fb.jpg


    The more closely watched 2-year -10-year spread still positive (though below 10 basis points).

    D2RHI2EXQAET6LT.jpg
     
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  8. Rockclimber

    Rockclimber Member

    2s minus 10s is all that matters to us finance guys, we could care less what the 3m does. Fed got ahead of itself on rates and now has to stop.
     
  9. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

     
  10. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine



    Recession Outlook Summary
    • Our Recession Probability Model rose across all horizons in the first quarter of 2019. While near-term recession probability is limited, the probability of a recession occurring over the next 24 months has more than doubled.
    • The deterioration in leading indicators, inversion of the yield curve, and tightening of monetary policy all contribute to rising recession risks. As we expect these trends to continue in 2019, we should see recession risk rise throughout the year.
    • We maintain our view that the recession could begin as early as the first half of 2020, but will be watching for signs that the dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could extend the cycle.
    • The next recession will not be as severe as the last one, but it could be more prolonged than usual because policymakers at home and abroad have limited tools to fight the downturn.
    • Credit markets are likely to be hit harder than usual in the recession. This stems from the record high ratio of corporate debt to GDP and the likelihood of a massive fallen angel wave.
    • When recessions hit, the magnitude of the associated bear market in stocks is driven by how high valuations were in the preceding bull market. Given that valuations reached elevated levels in this cycle, we expect a severe bear market of 40–50 percent in the next recession.
     
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  11. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    BLACKROCK: "There is not enough monetary policy space to deal with the next downturn: The current policy space for global central banks is limited and will not be enough to respond to a significant, let alone a dramatic, downturn."

    Dealing with the next downturn: From unconventional monetary policy to unprecedented policy coordination
    https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/whitepaper/bii-macro-perspectives-august-2019.pdf

    Summary

    Unprecedented policies will be needed to respond to the next economic downturn. Monetary policy is almost exhausted as global interest rates plunge towards zero or below. Fiscal policy on its own will struggle to provide major stimulus in a timely fashion given high debt levels and the typical lags with implementation. Without a clear framework in place, policymakers will inevitably find themselves blurring the boundaries between fiscal and monetary policies. This threatens the hard-won credibility of policy institutions and could open the door to uncontrolled fiscal spending.

    This paper outlines the contours of a framework to mitigate this risk so as to enable an unprecedented coordination through a monetary-financed fiscal facility. Activated, funded and closed by the central bank to achieve an explicit inflation objective, the facility would be deployed by the fiscal authority.

    • There is not enough monetary policy space to deal with the next downturn: The current policy space for global central banks is limited and will not be enough to respond to a significant, let alone a dramatic, downturn. Conventional and unconventional monetary policy works primarily through the stimulative impact of lower short-term and long-term interest rates. This channel is almost tapped out: One-third of the developed market government bond and investment grade universe now has negative yields, and global bond yields are closing in on their potential floor. Further support cannot rely on interest rates falling.

    • Fiscal policy should play a greater role but is unlikely to be effective on its own: Fiscal policy can stimulate activity without relying on interest rates going lower – and globally there is a strong case for spending on infrastructure, education and renewable energy with the objective of elevating potential growth. The current low-rate environment also creates greater fiscal space. But fiscal policy is typically not nimble enough, and there are limits to what it can achieve on its own. With global debt at record levels, major fiscal stimulus could raise interest rates or stoke expectations of future fiscal consolidation, undercutting and perhaps even eliminating its stimulative boost.

    • A soft form of coordination would help ensure that monetary and fiscal policy are both providing stimulus rather than working in opposite directions, as has often been the case in the post-crisis period. This experience suggests that there is room for a better policy – and yet simply hoping for such an outcome will probably not be enough.

    • An unprecedented response is needed when monetary policy is exhausted and fiscal policy alone is not enough. That response will likely involve “going direct”: Going direct means the central bank finding ways to get central bank money directly in the hands of public and private sector spenders. Going direct, which can be organised in a variety of different ways, works by: 1) bypassing the interest rate channel when this traditional central bank toolkit is exhausted, and; 2) enforcing policy coordination so that the fiscal expansion does not lead to an offsetting increase in interest rates.

    • An extreme form of “going direct” would be an explicit and permanent monetary financing of a fiscal expansion, or so-called helicopter money. Explicit monetary financing in sufficient size will push up inflation. Without explicit boundaries, however, it would undermine institutional credibility and could lead to uncontrolled fiscal spending.

    • A practical way of “going direct” would need to deliver the following: 1) defining the unusual circumstances that would call for such unusual coordination; 2) in those circumstances, an explicit inflation objective that fiscal and monetary authorities are jointly held accountable for achieving; 3) a mechanism that enables nimble deployment of productive fiscal policy, and; 4) a clear exit strategy. Such a mechanism could take the form of a standing emergency fiscal facility. It would be a permanent set-up but would be only activated when monetary policy is tapped out and inflation is expected to systematically undershoot its target over the policy horizon.

    • The size of this facility would be determined by the central bank and calibrated to achieve the inflation objective, which could include making up for past inflation misses. Once medium-term trend inflation is back at target and monetary policy space is regained, the facility would be closed. Importantly, such a set-up helps preserve central bank independence and credibility.
     
  12. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

     
  13. Michael Scally MD

    Michael Scally MD Doctor of Medicine

    The Last Recession?
    The Last Recession? – Nature Bats Last

    Technically, we are not headed into a recession, not even a brutal one. We are in the midst of the Greatest Depression. All this chatter about the coming recession from the corporate whores corporate media is clearly intended as a distraction. The industrial economy never recovered from the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. Nor will it, despite clever attempts to “paper over” financial challenges with a wide array of tricks rooted in monetary policy.

    The Limits to Growth have arrived, as forecast in 1972. The notion that we can experience infinite growth on a finite planet is believed only by fools and economists (and I repeat myself).

    The Federal Reserve and equivalent banking systems around the world work with the governments of the world to maintain the illusion of a healthy economy. This approach has the unaware masses in the United States believing all is well with the infinite-growth paradigm, although the industrial economy is quite obviously in poor condition. This system of lies, which the masses really want to believe, keeps the populace steadily grinding away on the Treadmill of MiseryTM so that the banksters can continue to enjoy their enormous privilege. George Carlin calls these latter people our owners.