So i just read in china when they reopened gyms they did this

[Millard]

The most interesting column is the total deaths from all causes. It is dropping month over month and much below normal death rates over the past couple of years. Is the virus really that dangerous if fewer people are dying as a result?

There are many confounding variables. For example, mass state-wide stay-at-home orders may save more lives from automobile accidents than from virus. I don't know this to be true but it is an example of a possible cofounder.

 

[dd340]

There are many confounding variables. For example, mass state-wide stay-at-home orders may save more lives from automobile accidents than from virus. I don't know this to be true but it is an example of a possible cofounder.

Totally agree on the confounding factors however since we are now saying that all deaths need to be prevented regardless of the financial cost we could easily make the case that deaths are being reduced by the quarantine restrictions therefore we should maintain these restrictions indefinitely since it prevents deaths. It’s a very slippery slope we are on.

 

[Millard]

Totally agree on the confounding factors however since we are now saying that all deaths need to be prevented regardless of the financial cost we could easily make the case that deaths are being reduced by the quarantine restrictions therefore we should maintain these restrictions indefinitely since it prevents deaths. It’s a very slippery slope we are on.

Definitely. Neither the covid-19-related deaths or the economic costs of a shutdown should be flippantly dismissed.

 

[HIGHRISK]

There are many confounding variables. For example, mass state-wide stay-at-home orders may save more lives from automobile accidents than from virus. I don't know this to be true but it is an example of a possible cofounder.

That’s a really great point. Never thought about that. Also a have a few LE friends that are literally sitting in there cars all day doing nothing. They said nothing is going on and drunk drivers are down to a very small few. 911 calls are down to almost nothing. Another friends daughter is a 911 operator and literally had no calls the other night for about 5 hours straight. I’ve always said if you ever have any doubt or questions follow the money. JMO

 

[Millard]

Reporting lag makes the most sense. Whatever the reason, it doesn't look like intentional deception. When I first saw the chart it looked like the smoking gun to prove just that, and I didn't pause as I should have to look around and verify the data.

CDC data reporting change April 14, 2020

"*As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease."​

Source: CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Worldometers: April 14 -15 Change in United States Data

Following new CDC guidelines: "As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.

A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19" [source]

This change is a further example of one of the many reasons why the label "confirmed cases" (used by some to designate total cases) is incorrect (see definitions for more details). The US CDC (and Worldometer) has always used the label "Total Cases."

On April 14, New York City reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source].

From April 14 onward, New York City has provided - and will continue to provide - the updated number of probable deaths in its daily reports.

On April 15, in the daily press briefing, New York Governor Cuomo said that "we will begin reporting all categories of fatalities pursuant to new CDC guidelines and are contacting facilities to get updated numbers." He also added that there may be additional people who died that have not been counted because not in a hospital. In the April 15 update, the New York State Department of Health official website had still not included (nor reported separately) the additional "probable" deaths reported by New York City the day before. On April 16, when asked about the issue, New York State officials commented on their decision to not add the New York City probable deaths in the official State count saying that probable deaths have been reported by New York City in a new and separate category, without adding the two numbers (confirmed and probable) together into a single category.

Worldometer is following the new CDC guideline of including both probable and confirmed in the total case and death counts [source]

As with similar instances in the past (with other countries), we have now the additional data on the day it was reported. If and when the historical distribution is provided, we will make the needed adjustments. Alternatively, we are considering modeling the distribution on the progression of confirmed deaths in New York City from March 11 to April 14.

Finally, since every probable death necessarily implies a probable case, logic mandates that the adjustment be made to both deaths and cases, and not only to deaths. We have now adjusted April 14, April 15, and current data for New York State and the United States accordingly.

Source: April 14 - 15 Change in US COVID-19 Data - Worldometer

 

[Logan44551]

CDC data reporting change April 14, 2020

"*As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease."​

Source: CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Worldometers: April 14 -15 Change in United States Data



Source: April 14 - 15 Change in US COVID-19 Data - Worldometer

Interesting, thanks for.posting Millard

 

[Millard]

CDC data reporting change April 14, 2020

"*As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease."​

Source: CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Worldometers: April 14 -15 Change in United States Data



Source: April 14 - 15 Change in US COVID-19 Data - Worldometer

Which deaths count toward the covid-19 death toll? It depends on the state.

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its website this week to explicitly say that cases where the infection was not confirmed by a test may now be counted. But attributing a death to the virus can be a judgment call, experts say, and potentially a vexing one as indications emerge that the disease damages not just the lungs but also the heart, kidneys and other organs.

"As a result, the overall tally — a benchmark broadcast constantly on cable news and elsewhere — is a less concrete figure than it appears. The inconsistent counting methods also raise questions about the ability to draw comparisons from state to state, and they play into a political debate about the reliability of the numbers."​

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...a84ae0-7991-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html

 

[master.on]

I'm not so sure Americans will go back to the basics.

We have a society/culture that is completely inundated with advertising.

You're always just one purchase away from bliss in the United States.

Most people could retire in this country by the age of 55 if we took a drastic drop in consumption.

Thousands of college students were ejected from their dorms, most with less than a week notice, many from foreign countries with travel restrictions in place. Tell them they didn't lose their homes.

In any case, I do personally know 2 people who are facing foreclosure and will likely lose their mortgaged homes. I know zero people personally who have contracted or died of corona virus.

Otherwise I agree with you. This isn't bad. I know a few people from the Soviet Union before it disbanded. Not peasants, but people from well connected party-loyal families. Some of the stories I've heard from them truly give me nightmares.

This is also cracking me up. Our ancestors had it tough. If they got to eat one meal a day they were damn lucky and they worked their asses off to get that food.

Now you got people claiming this is really a struggle. I call bullshit and I have to ask what the hell is wrong with these people. If I went back to my time as a kid in the early 70's we really didn't have shit in our homes to entertain ourselves, you had to go outside and do something, build something, take a risk, hop on the bike and ride 10 miles from home to meet up with your friends and explore the world around you. The people today are pussies, they can't handle any inconvenience at all, if they can't shop every day of the week they freak out, they load their shopping carts full of shit they don't need.

I tell them look you're a fat fuck, you got enough blubber to make it for 6 months easily, any grizzly bear would be happy to have that kind of fat layer, but they can't fathom not having loads of food. So we see thousands and thousands of $40,000 dollar cars lining up at the food banks, sleeping overnight to get in line.

These people are fucking dumb. You can skip a meal it isn't gonna kill you. I once fasted for three weeks, no food just water and I was already pretty lean, I actually felt fantastic, my mental clarity, I felt light on my feet, never felt better.

Lets ask ourselves how people fought in WWI and WWII, walking thousands of miles. The people today are so soft they can't even get out of their vehicles, they have to have the food bank volunteers load their groceries in their car....bunch of lazy fucks.

Finally, someone who gets it! Exactly what I'm talking about, I walk around and hear these ppl bitching like they're actually going through some hard shit rt now. Now, obviously there are a few exceptions but as far as America goes? Shit, the only way you starve and end up homeless in America is by being lazy or suffering from a mental illness that prevents you from working.

Seriously, everyone is supposedly out of work, yet somehow I see "Now hiring" signs at the few businesses still open!!

No, I don't wanna bag groceries, I don't wanna deliver food, I don't wanna work at a cash register, whah whah,whah!!
No no, us high and mighty middle class Americans working registers and stocking shelves? Hold on just a minute here! I mean, damn man, only 12$ an hour in a time of global crisis? FUCK ME it's a rough world out there!

So you're unhappy they didn't suffer enough at the government's decree? A lot of them are not from this country and have no place to go. Yes, they are now homeless. They literally can't go home, even if they had the funds.

I don't know about you, but I spent most of my adult life trying to protect my children. I wanted to make sure they didn't have to live through the same kinds of hardships I had to endure.

Now I am faced with a government determined to impose exactly those kinds of hardships. They want my children to be hungry and desperate and dependent on the kindness of tyrants. I'm not willing to accept that. My children deserve more, even if they haven't endured what I endured. They shouldn't have to.

Good times create weak men
Weak men create hard times.

By being lazy and entitled, most jobs were outsourced to China and other countries.
Now we're paying the price: the barbarians are at the front door.

 

[rpbb]

Reopening will take about a year

...and when take finally reopen, boom a reinfection second wave, even worse than the first one.

Viruses don't care about your feelings or the economy.

The first one wasn't that bad

 

[4Figgy]

 

[flenser]

Interview with the former state epidemiologist from Sweden. Worth watching for anyone trying to make sense of all the conflicting data being tossed around.

 

[notdeadYET]

Well, I just heard that the Governor of Georgia said the following.

"Given the favorable data, enhanced testing, and approval of our healthcare professionals, we will allow gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios, barbers, cosmetologists, hair designers, nail care artists, estheticians, their respective schools and massage therapists to reopen their doors this Friday."

 

[juicy122]

Well, I just heard that the Governor of Georgia said the following.

"Given the favorable data, enhanced testing, and approval of our healthcare professionals, we will allow gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios, barbers, cosmetologists, hair designers, nail care artists, estheticians, their respective schools and massage therapists to reopen their doors this Friday."

I should have bet that master.on guy $1000 guy thinks will be locked down for a year lmao.... even canada doctors now saying we should slowly open in June.

 

[T_CR]

I should have bet that master.on guy $1000.

Follow.

 

[juicy122]

Follow.

@master.on wanna bet $1000 gyms open before july/aug Let's go bro u seemed confident it will be a year

 

[Demondosage]

Just kill whoever had it coming already and let's get on with the program! Seriously, survival of the fittest, just fucking kill whoever has it coming already.

I'm so sick of germaphobes constantly wiping down counters like everyone has the cooties. At this point it's fucking stupidity!

I walked into a grocery store yesterday, grabbed a cart from outside. A kid standing in the entrance tells me that I need to leave the cart out there and get one of the ones he just wiped down. I said ,"No. I've already touched it and if your store had any sense then you wouldn't have let me grab this one that was next to your building in a cart line (wasn't a loose cart, it was just in a line on sidewalk) I'm using the cart I've already grabbed, sorry"

Next thing I know I'm standing in an aisle literally 2' away from the can of diced olives I needed and this fat bitch tells me it's a one way aisle and I need to go around. Fucking thing I needed was literally 2' in front of me and I was redirected around. I guess the one arrow in tape on the floor of each aisle we are all supposed to pick up on immediately.

Go through the checkout and try to walk out, get stopped again. "Oh no Sir, you can't exit this door, you need to walk that way to the other entrance."

Finally I lost it and said ,"then here is an idea, put a fucking sign up where ppl can see it and tell them at the register rather than redirecting us all around like idiots! This is about the 3rd or 4th time I've been fucked with since I came here and my patience is wearing thin!

Or how bout piece if fucking shit Wal-Mart? U walk inside the exit and immediately have to walk back out the other entrance just to get a fucking shipping cart! Who is the genius running these setups? Yep, I'll just walk back thru your thief buzzer here each time I need a cart! No I'm not showing you my fucking receipt! Did you personally see me steal something? Then shut the fuck up and leave me alone!"

Bunch of fucking idiots. I'm so sick of these fucking morons, some of these businesses don't need to survive this shit, they re breeding grounds for idiots!

 

[juicy122]

Just kill whoever had it coming already and let's get on with the program! Seriously, survival of the fittest, just fucking kill whoever has it coming already.

I'm so sick of germaphobes constantly wiping down counters like everyone has the cooties. At this point it's fucking stupidity!

I walked into a grocery store yesterday, grabbed a cart from outside. A kid standing in the entrance tells me that I need to leave the cart out there and get one of the ones he just wiped down. I said ,"No. I've already touched it and if your store had any sense then you wouldn't have let me grab this one that was next to your building in a cart line (wasn't a loose cart, it was just in a line on sidewalk) I'm using the cart I've already grabbed, sorry"

Next thing I know I'm standing in an aisle literally 2' away from the can of diced olives I needed and this fat bitch tells me it's a one way aisle and I need to go around. Fucking thing I needed was literally 2' in front of me and I was redirected around. I guess the one arrow in tape on the floor of each aisle we are all supposed to pick up on immediately.

Go through the checkout and try to walk out, get stopped again. "Oh no Sir, you can't exit this door, you need to walk that way to the other entrance."

Finally I lost it and said ,"then here is an idea, put a fucking sign up where ppl can see it and tell them at the register rather than redirecting us all around like idiots! This is about the 3rd or 4th time I've been fucked with since I came here and my patience is wearing thin!

Or how bout piece if fucking shit Wal-Mart? U walk inside the exit and immediately have to walk back out the other entrance just to get a fucking shipping cart! Who is the genius running these setups? Yep, I'll just walk back thru your thief buzzer here each time I need a cart! No I'm not showing you my fucking receipt! Did you personally see me steal something? Then shut the fuck up and leave me alone!"

Bunch of fucking idiots. I'm so sick of these fucking morons, some of these businesses don't need to survive this shit, they re breeding grounds for idiots!

I know I've been seeing ridiculous shit too. Realshit ppl die everyday if your gonna die your going to die one way or another. Instead of corona it would have been a flu of some sort regardless.... fk man maybe you could have lived an extra year but ppl die for millions of defective reasons but now its like all deaths are only covid lmao.. o well at least whatever this bs is and was they're finally saying its "working and it's not so bad as they projected it to be" it was never as bad is they made it period.....

 

[master.on]

@master.on wanna bet $1000 gyms open before july/aug Let's go bro u seemed confident it will be a year

It's totally depends on the state you're in.
Even if they do, that doesn't mean it's safe. Lots of stupid things are legal.

This will take 18 months or longer.
Accept it, like real men do.

 

[juicy122]

It's totally depends on the state you're in.
Even if they do, that doesn't mean it's safe. Lots of stupid things are legal.

This will take 18 months or longer.
Accept it, like real men do.

When I opened this thread I was just saying gym will open and how they will probably operate 50 ppl max etc. It was never about safety of this virus and how long it will linger . It was just about places opening, so I agree it will take years to be fully back to normal operations like we were before but your the one that said gym wont open for at least a year period.

 

[juicy122]

For canadian people Saskatchewan just announced phases of reopening:
Saskatchewan’s plan proposes opening golf courses by May 15, retail and personal care services by May 19, and parks and campgrounds by June 1.

There is no date associated with Phase 3 of Saskatchewan’s framework, which includes opening things like restaurants, gyms, and child care facilities.

So I'm guessing in the toronto area and places near and more packed pops gym are looking like July latest. I was hoping june but july seems more likely now.