Trump Timeline ... Trumpocalypse

[Michael Scally MD]

It is therefore all too easy to dismiss the current angst over U.S. President Donald Trump as the latest hymn from the Church of Perpetual Worry. This is hardly the first time observers have questioned the viability of a U.S.-led global order. The peril to the West was never greater than when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik—until U.S. President Richard Nixon ended the Bretton Woods system.

The oil shocks of the 1970s posed a grave threat to the liberal international order—but then came the explosion of the U.S. budget and trade deficits in the 1980s. The perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks seemed like an existential threat to the system—until the 2008 financial crisis. Now there is Trump. It is worth asking, then, whether the current fretting is anything new. For decades, the sky has refused to fall.

But this time really is different. Just when many of the sources of American power are ebbing, many of the guardrails that have kept U.S. foreign policy on track have been worn down. It is tempting to pin this degradation on Trump and his retrograde foreign policy views, but the erosion predated him by a good long while.

Shifts in the way Americans debate and conduct foreign policy will make it much more difficult to right the ship in the near future. Foreign policy discourse was the last preserve of bipartisanship, but political polarization has irradiated that marketplace of ideas. Although future presidents will try to restore the classical version of U.S. foreign policy, in all likelihood, it cannot be revived.

The American foundations undergirding the liberal international order are in grave danger, and it is no longer possible to take the pillars of that order for granted. Think of the current moment as a game of Jenga in which multiple pieces have been removed but the tower still stands. As a result, some observers have concluded that the structure remains sturdy.

But in fact, it is lacking many important parts and, on closer inspection, is teetering ever so slightly. Like a Jenga tower, the order will continue to stand upright—right until the moment it collapses. Every effort should be made to preserve the liberal international order, but it is also time to start thinking about what might come after its end.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Last week the Center for a New American Security released a compendium titled “New Voices in Grand Strategy,” edited by a whole bunch of smart people at CNAS. As its foreword explains, “The debate over America’s proper role in the world is perhaps wider than at any time in decades.”

This is undeniably true. In response, CNAS “seeks to broaden the existing debate by bringing new voices to the conversation. We have commissioned a series of essays on American grand strategy from a new generation of thinkers, strategists, academics, and policymakers. As will immediately become apparent, their contributions are not bound by the intellectual and strategic strictures of the past.”

By all means, you should check out the essays, which include insights from the likes of Emma Ashford and Rebecca Friedman Lissner. However, I confess to being somewhat dubious about the entire enterprise.

The reason is my latest and last essay in my Season of Doom series. To recap: Essay No. 1 argued that in a polarized era, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/03/06/why-american-capital-will-swipe-right/?utm_term=.6a6791a21987 (capital would always swipe right). Essay No. 2 argued that, intentionally or not, the Trump administration was doing a bang-up job of https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/03/11/present-destruction/?utm_term=.869f6d8c77f6 (eviscerating the foreign policy bureaucracy). And Essay No. 3 suggested, with just the mildest amount of hyperbole, that the current global political economy bears an awfully strong resemblance to how things looked just before https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/04/08/most-apocalyptic-article-i-have-ever-written/?utm_term=.2e30e260e1a6 (the start of the First World War).

My fourth and last essay drops Tuesday in Foreign Affairs and is cheerfully titled “This Time is Different: Why U.S. Foreign Policy Will Never Recover.” (Even if you’re not a subscriber, this link allow you to access the entire essay for the next month.)

The core arguments:

1. The part that I suspect will thrill critics of the foreign policy community is that the Blob has been enervated: “Foreign policy discourse was the last preserve of bipartisanship, but political polarization has irradiated that marketplace of ideas. Although future presidents will try to restore the classical version of U.S. foreign policy, in all likelihood, it cannot be revived.”
2. Somewhat more significant, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/04/04/uncertain-state-american-hegemony/?utm_term=.6044955ac42c (contra Adam Tooze), is that the foundations of U.S. power are also disintegrating. Though they are in better shape than the foreign policy debate, “think of the current moment as a game of Jenga in which multiple pieces have been removed but the tower still stands.” Things look fine right now, but the entire edifice is listing and could crumble more quickly than many commentators appreciate.
3. This is exactly the moment when grand strategists should devise new ways to think about America’s role in the world, right? Wrong, because it doesn’t matter! The problem is that “neither [conservatives nor progressives are] really grappling with the end of equilibrium, however. The question is not what U.S. foreign policy can do after Trump. The question is whether there is any viable grand strategy that can endure past an election cycle.”

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Kaiser says he now is motivated to publicly share his turnabout on climate change. “I just feel guilty that my generation was part of setting up the politics of today. That we played a role in spreading misinformation. That we were unwitting allies of merchants of doubt …. We didn’t realize that coal companies and oil companies were funding all of these things we were showing about the positive benefits of CO2.”

“I do feel some responsibility that I should have known better, that I should have looked more deeply into the issue, into who was funding the stuff that I was putting out there.”

“If I can do something to remedy it, it would be a good penance,” he had written to me prior to our interview. In that vein, Kaiser offers four takeaways drawn from his former role as a spokesperson against climate action.

...

What? Me worry? Yes … ‘thought horrifies me … I worry’

Kaiser reflects on his contributions to stall action on climate change, and grapples with the implications for the future. “Now I’m a 39-year-old man with children who are going to reach maturity … in a world that will be worse than the one that I came to maturity in. That thought horrifies me, especially because I was out there on a weekly basis telling people, don’t worry about global warming, it’s not going to be a problem.”

“I’d like to say that there’s a part of me that believes that, politically and technologically, we will figure this out in time. And that the technology of geothermal, solar, wind, all of that, will advance … to fully replace coal, and a big chunk of oil. There’s a part of me that wants to believe that. But, having been a part of climate change denial, I worry about whether we can get to that point. And I worry especially as we see active attempts at sabotaging things like renewable energy industries.”

“Time will tell, we will see. I worry that it won’t be enough.”

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

NOTRE DUMBASS
https://claytoonz.com/2019/04/16/notre-dumbass/

While I’m a cynical and skeptical person who is not religious, I can appreciate the significance of Notre Dame (if you’re a Republican, I’m not talking about the college football team in Indiana). But still, I didn’t think the world needed one more crying gargoyle cartoon.

Yesterday, while the over 800-year-old cathedral in Paris was burning, America’s greatest embarrassment tweeted out some advice on how to fight fires. Seriously, dumpster fires shouldn’t be giving out firefighting advice. Trump tweeted that firefighters “must act quickly.” How observant. Then, he suggested that they used “flying water tankers.” I’m mostly shocked he didn’t suggest invisible flying water tankers.

Later, at an event in Minnesota, Trump said, “They don’t know what caused it. They say renovation, and I hope that’s the reason. Renovation? What’s that all about?” OK, if you’re a Republican, “renovate” means to restore something old, like a building, to a good state of repair.

The French shot down Trump’s suggestion, probably before they even heard it. Did you hear his advice on deterring California wildfires? Rake the forests. Seriously. He claimed that’s how Finland, a very treeish country combats it. The Finns are still laughing at us (if you’re a Republican, “Finns” are people from Finland).

The French civil defense department sent out a tweet, while not addressing Trump, said, “All means are being used, except for water-bombing aircrafts which, if used, could lead to the collapse of the entire structure of the cathedral.” Trump’s lucky the tweet didn’t end with, “Tête de noeud,” which is a great way to describe Trump and all his sycophants.

Trump continues to be an international embarrassment. He’s making us look like a bunch of overweight, red-meat-eating, super-sizing, science-denying, illiterate troglodytes. If uneducated deplorables, the Russians, and the kink in our system keeps Trump in power after 2020, I’m afraid the rest of the world will wash their hands of us.

I’ve always doubted the existence of a god, but I have to ask, what sort of god would allow one of his most cherished cathedrals to burn and let someone like Donald Trump be the most powerful man in the world? Maybe there is a god and he’s just really bored and this is a sick joke. As bad as the French may be feeling right now, I’d trade them Trump for a few burning cathedrals.

The bulk of Notre Dame and its artifacts was saved. It will take decades to rebuild from the fire. We Americans can relate. It’s going to take decades to recover from this dumpster fire.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

A new victim has gone public in the Jeffrey Epstein case, filing a sworn affidavit in federal court in New York Tuesday, saying that she was sexually assaulted and her then-15-year-old sister molested by Epstein and his companion, Ghislaine Maxwell, in 1996.

Maria Farmer, then 26, claims she was employed by Epstein, a multimillionaire financier who lived in a vast mansion on New York’s Upper East side, and that she frequently saw “school-age girls’’ wearing uniforms come into the mansion and go upstairs. She was told that the girls were auditioning for modeling work, according to her affidavit.

Then an art student in New York, Farmer said she reported her assault to New York police and the FBI in 1996. FBI documents released April 1 make a reference to Farmer having been interviewed in 2006 or 2007. However, Farmer, now 49, said the FBI did not take any action against Epstein and Maxwell.

“To my knowledge, I was the first person to report Maxwell and Epstein to the FBI. It took a significant amount of bravery for me to make that call because I knew how incredibly powerful and influential both Epstein and Maxwell were, particularly in the art community,’’ she wrote.

Farmer’s affidavit is one of 15 exhibits attached to a defamation complaint filed in federal court in the Southern District of New York by Virginia Roberts Giuffre, one of Epstein’s victims, against Alan Dershowitz, one Epstein’s most vocal and powerful attorneys.

Giuffre claims in the lawsuit that Dershowitz, 80, knew about and participated in Epstein and Maxwell’s sex trafficking operation, and that she was forced to have sex with Dershowitz and other prominent, wealthy men, when she was underage.

Dershowitz has railed against the allegations for years, maintaining that he has never met Giuffre. He also says he has documents and other evidence that prove she is lying.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

There is a direct line between Trayvon Martin and Monday’s editorial cartooning Pulitzer.

Darrin Bell, the California-based writer and artist, was the creator of the comic strip “Candorville” and co-creator of the strip “Rudy Park” when Martin, a Florida teenager, was shot to death in 2012. Bell’s syndicate, The Washington Post Writers Group, had urged him to try his hand at regular political cartooning — especially after he published a poignant week of https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/comic-riffs/post/the-trayvon-martin-cartoons-candorville-creator-darrin-bell-reminds-readers-of-the-humanity-lost-in-the-news-narrative/2012/04/02/gIQAfcvtqS_blog.html?utm_term=.48eea1a5fe78 (Martin-inspired strips) seven years ago this month.

On Monday, Bell was named the https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/national/wp/2019/04/15/feature/2019-pulitzer-prizes-winners-and-finalists-from-the-washington-post/?utm_term=.34f975894543 (2019 winner) of the Pulitzer Prize “for beautiful and daring editorial cartoons that took on issues affecting disenfranchised communities, calling out lies, hypocrisy and fraud in the political turmoil surrounding the Trump administration,” as announced by the Pulitzer Board and Columbia University. Bell, who lives in the Sacramento area, is the first African American recipient of the editorial cartooning Pulitzer, which has been awarded since 1922.

...

 

[Michael Scally MD]

A new victim has gone public in the Jeffrey Epstein case, filing a sworn affidavit in federal court in New York Tuesday, saying that she was sexually assaulted and her then-15-year-old sister molested by Epstein and his companion, Ghislaine Maxwell, in 1996.

Maria Farmer, then 26, claims she was employed by Epstein, a multimillionaire financier who lived in a vast mansion on New York’s Upper East side, and that she frequently saw “school-age girls’’ wearing uniforms come into the mansion and go upstairs. She was told that the girls were auditioning for modeling work, according to her affidavit.

Then an art student in New York, Farmer said she reported her assault to New York police and the FBI in 1996. FBI documents released April 1 make a reference to Farmer having been interviewed in 2006 or 2007. However, Farmer, now 49, said the FBI did not take any action against Epstein and Maxwell.

“To my knowledge, I was the first person to report Maxwell and Epstein to the FBI. It took a significant amount of bravery for me to make that call because I knew how incredibly powerful and influential both Epstein and Maxwell were, particularly in the art community,’’ she wrote.

Farmer’s affidavit is one of 15 exhibits attached to a defamation complaint filed in federal court in the Southern District of New York by Virginia Roberts Giuffre, one of Epstein’s victims, against Alan Dershowitz, one Epstein’s most vocal and powerful attorneys.

Giuffre claims in the lawsuit that Dershowitz, 80, knew about and participated in Epstein and Maxwell’s sex trafficking operation, and that she was forced to have sex with Dershowitz and other prominent, wealthy men, when she was underage.

Dershowitz has railed against the allegations for years, maintaining that he has never met Giuffre. He also says he has documents and other evidence that prove she is lying.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

On Saturday evening, Trump called Carter to talk about it. It was the first time they'd spoken, Carter said. He said Trump told him that he is particularly concerned about how China is "getting ahead of us."

Carter said he agreed with Trump on this issue.

"And do you know why?" Carter said. "I normalized diplomatic relations with China in 1979. Since 1979, do you know how many times China has been at war with anybody? None. And we have stayed at war," he said. (China and Vietnam actually fought a brief border war in early 1979, weeks after U.S. relations with China were normalized.)

Carter said the United States is "the most warlike nation in the history of the world" due to a desire to impose American values on other countries, and he suggested that China is investing its resources into projects such as high-speed railroads instead of defense spending.

"How many miles of high-speed railroad do we have in this country?"

Zero, the congregation answered.

"We have wasted, I think, $3 trillion," Carter said, referring to American military spending. "China has not wasted a single penny on war, and that's why they're ahead of us. In almost every way.

"And I think the difference is if you take $3 trillion and put it in American infrastructure, you'd probably have $2 trillion left over. We'd have high-speed railroad. We'd have bridges that aren't collapsing. We'd have roads that are maintained properly. Our education system would be as good as that of, say, South Korea or Hong Kong.