I think the whole "alternative facts" movement is giving Ten a new lease on life.
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I think the whole "alternative facts" movement is giving Ten a new lease on life.
I've come across OTHERS so blinded by rhetoric but it still amazes me at times.
10lbsleft!!!! ^^^^ is this an unclear use of a pronoun? Sorry, just gotta just some balls
This is comic relief
It is just unsettling that the president is in an alternate universe.
4 corporate bankruptcies in 18 years? I don't think that America's creditors will accept pennies on the dollar like he stiffed contractors who worked for him. This guy just may give us the next great depression. Fuck!
Bookies are giving 4 to 1 odds trump will be impeached within 6 months.
Hello President Pence.
Statement from the author of study cited by Spicer
Is it plausible that non-citizen votes account for the entire margin of Trump’s popular vote loss to Clinton?
January 24, 2017.
Although Press Secretary Sean Spicer claimed today that millions voted illegally in the November 2016 election, on November 28, 2016 I published the following statement indicating that our analysis does not support his claim. Since then, no new data, facts or analyses have emerged that require us to revisit or change the findings of the 2014 study to which Mr. Spicer refers. We stand by our findings.
The perils of cherry picking low frequency events in large sample surveys
Authors
Stephen Ansolabeherea,
Samantha Luksb,
Brian F. Schaffnerc, ,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.07.002
Highlights
• This paper investigates the perils of making inferences about low-probability events from large-N survey data.
• The authors show that a recent study purporting to demonstrate that non-citizens in the United States vote is almost certainly flawed.
• The article concludes that the rate of non-citizen voting in the United States is likely 0.
Abstract
The advent of large sample surveys, such as the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), has opened the possibility of measuring very low frequency events, characteristics, and behaviors in the population. This paper documents how low-level measurement error for survey questions generally agreed to be highly reliable can lead to large prediction errors in large sample surveys, such as the CCES. The example for this analysis is Richman et al. (2014), which presents a biased estimate of the rate at which non-citizens voted in recent elections. The results, we show, are completely accounted for by very low frequency measurement error; further, the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.
tenpoundsleft
Member
Yep, because you and several others keep offering your "alternatives" to facts.
In ~30 years, the CO2 will be over 500 ppm if no emergency/drastic measures are taken.
#Resist
Who is the president, John miller, John Barron or Trump? Trump use to call in to television and radio stations using the John Barron and John Miller aliases. Am I alone in seeing this as a problem?
He is Cray cray. It's okay you still have pence until America is great again and out of the hands of the alt right.
He is your president now, and he is completely whacked and out of touch with reality. What a fucking douche. Gtfo moron.
Seriously are you that fucking naive or deranged? Enjoy his impeachment.
He is Cray cray. It's okay you still have pence until America is great again and out of the hands of the alt right.He is your president now, and he is completely whacked and out of touch with reality. What a fucking douche. Gtfo moron.
samsc744
New Member
I am not so sure enough Republicans in the house and Senate will break rank to allow for that to happen none the less it looks like a rain storm of lawsuits is coming his way. First the ethics debacle followed by DAPL and KXl.
No, I have never posted anything less than the truth. Feel free to post or point out anything less. Remember, just because you don't like it doesn't make it false.
You're probably confusing facts with beliefs though... I'm well aware that you don't tolerate others and what they believe very well.
Grimes DR. On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs. PLoS ONE 2016;11(1):e0147905. On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs
Conspiratorial ideation is the tendency of individuals to believe that events and power relations are secretly manipulated by certain clandestine groups and organisations.
Many of these ostensibly explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high.
Efforts to convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well established.
Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between reasonable and dubious assertions.
In this work, we establish a simple mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy.
Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and failure are explored.
The model is also used to estimate the likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs; these are namely that the
The theory presented here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be possible.
Conspiratorial ideation is the tendency of individuals to believe that events and power relations are secretly manipulated by certain clandestine groups and organisations.
Many of these ostensibly explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high.
Efforts to convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well established.
Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between reasonable and dubious assertions.
In this work, we establish a simple mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy.
Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and failure are explored.
The model is also used to estimate the likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs; these are namely that the
- moon-landings were faked,
- climate-change is a hoax,
- vaccination is dangerous and that
- a cure for cancer is being suppressed by vested interests.
The theory presented here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be possible.
Because something is happening here but you don't know what it is
Do you, Mr. Jones?
Do you, Mr. Jones?
Dude if you haven't noticed the Republicans are having a hard time supporting spray tan man. This 3-5 million illegal votes he claims are ludicrous. No one in either party believes it. It is just a matter of time before we decide that this man is unbalanced and dangerous.
Put some money on it.
The Shock of Recognition (J. Sakai)
The Shock of Recognition (J. Sakai)
“Fascism has shown that it can gather mass support. In many nations the far right, including fascism, has become a popular oppositional force to the new globalized imperialism. In many countries the far right has replaced the left as the main political opposition . It doesn’t get more critical than this. This stands the old leftist notion about fascism on its head. It isn’t just about some other country. Without a serious revolutionary analysis of fascism we can’t understand, locate or combat it right here. And if you don’t think that’s a serious problem, you’ve got your back turned to what’s incoming.”
The Shock of Recognition (J. Sakai)
“Fascism has shown that it can gather mass support. In many nations the far right, including fascism, has become a popular oppositional force to the new globalized imperialism. In many countries the far right has replaced the left as the main political opposition . It doesn’t get more critical than this. This stands the old leftist notion about fascism on its head. It isn’t just about some other country. Without a serious revolutionary analysis of fascism we can’t understand, locate or combat it right here. And if you don’t think that’s a serious problem, you’ve got your back turned to what’s incoming.”
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