I'm in my 40s now, and ever since I was a kid so long as I can remember, the opposition party has been saying this country is in trouble. I think there was a short period of prosperity from '91 to '01 mostly with Clinton in power that was the exception. But still you had Rush Limbaugh on the radio warning Social Security would become insolvent and the national debt is something our grandchildren would pay off etc etc
But you know what? Our country to day is the strongest on Earth. And no country except for China has a brighter future. No economist except for maybe Roubini (aka Dr Doom) would argue otherwise. I wouldn't lose sleep over it.
China and India are the only two of BRICS that can make a difference and really the only scary one is China. China wants nothing to do with this Russia/Ukraine business. If anything Russia's invasion pushed China away from them. Russia has a GDP of $1.4 trillion. The GDP of China is $17 trillion and US is $20 trillion. Economically Russia is a fly to be swatted by the US and China. And the US and Chinese economies are intertwined in ways Russia's isn't. China's business and investment in Europe for China is 750 billion Euros. Business and investment in Russia for China is only 80 billion Euros. And that's not factoring in the United States. China will not risk the Belt and Road Initiative over Russia and Ukraine.
But maybe sometime after I'm dead and gone some of these emerging economies like Brazil and South Africa will make a difference in this world. Just like maybe sometime after I'm dead and gone global warming will flood the coasts and that won't be good for Brazil or South Africa.
They left simply because they couldn't supply it and would lose too many troops trying to defend it. They went on TV and did a skit with Shoigu and Surovikin said as much. Odd because it's on the Black Sea coast and the Russians have a Navy, but they've been hiding it since the flag ship was sunk.
What you might not realize is if the bridge was blown it would mostly flood the low ground on the other side of the river from the city, where the Russians actually retreated to. You can see by looking at a picture which areas would flood:
View attachment 175446
But the flood would make a Russian retreat impossible. Even those who are very strong swimmers wouldn't be able to retreat, the water is getting cold now anyway.
After WWII, studies were done on strategic bombing campaigns that showed bombing civilian infrastructure is actually counter-productive. It actually angers the civilians, increases manufacturing output and increases morale and support for the war. This has been a basic accepted fact/principle of warfare for 80 years and Putin knows this but he needed to respond to the Kerch bridge attack or look weak.
I know pro-Russian media has been praising these attacks on the electrical grid like it will change the outcome but in reality, a cold Ukrainian burning wood to keep warm is just an angry Ukrainian. There might be a refugee crisis but that doesn't achieve any military objectives. A tank or artillery gun doesn't care if there's electricity, forward operating bases in Afghanistan were not power hungry, and NATO will supply generators for the bases. Electric rail trains have diesel backups. And Russian troops will lack electricity too.
And with conscripts coming, total war coming, gloves off coming and crushing Ukraine to nothing, you'd think they would at least be want to hold Kherson and not have to go retake it from the low ground side of the river. You'd think they would want to take Odessa and deny Ukraine access to the sea coast, let their ship launched missiles make a difference.
Also, Kherson is the city they had been reinforcing with troops from Kharkiv leading to the Kharkiv rout. Let's not pretend this wasn't important to them.
The Russians are actually hoping for a ceasefire during the winter. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes:
"A wintertime ceasefire would only benefit Russian forces, who would use that opportunity to bolster their faltering defenses and continue their genocidal campaign to eradicate Ukrainian identity in occupied parts of Ukraine." and
"Russian forces likely retain the capability to damage Ukrainian critical infrastructure and impose costs on Ukrainian civilians in the winter but are unlikely to be able to inflict decisive — and lasting — damage." and
"Winter weather could disproportionately harm poorly-equipped Russian forces in Ukraine, but well-supplied Ukrainian forces are unlikely to halt their counteroffensives due to the arrival of winter weather and may be able to take advantage of frozen terrain to move more easily than they could in the muddy autumn months. If fighting does halt this winter, it will be due to logistical challenges and the culmination of several campaigns on both sides."
This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org
It is only because Russia annexing Ukraine, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan etc would start to make them great again, start to allow them to threaten Estonia, Latvia, Poland etc and nobody wants that.
Alexander Stubb, professor in Italy, Director of the EUI Transnational School of Governance, studies and teaches this full-time. He also was Prime Minister of Finland, and when Russia attacked Georgia he was Finland's Foreign Minister and he was part of the peace talks before the attack trying to prevent the attack from happening. He learned a lot about their attitude towards their former states and what Russia wants its destiny to be. Here he talks about Russia:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEMtLZFPfck