Anyone else about sick to fucking death of the term "social distancing"?

[hfo369]

You are simplifying the CDC report!

And what are all these scenarios predicated upon?

Models that are unable to account for differences in HUMAN BEHAVIOR and thats a critical distinction because the latter IS primarily responsible for the spread of this disease.

As one of those doctors that actually treats patients with COVID-19 I KNOW the mortality will far exceed that of influenza. There simply is NO comparison.

And based upon existing evidence the only means of achieving a mortality rate of less than 1% is a long term and steadfast quarantine of high risk patients.




jim

Are you saying more than 646,000 people will die from covid 19 this year?

 

[Dr JIM]

NO ONE knows how many will die from COVID this year or next.

And that includes the CDC. Perhaps thats why they specifically state; "these parameter scenerios are NOT predictors of the expected effects of COVID-19".

 

[Dr JIM]

Serological data as the COVID gold standard and whats the reliability of serum assays knowing close to one hundred are currently on the market, many of which are not FDA approved for emergency use.

And the lack of uniform reliability is why the CDC fails to mention serum assays as a basis for their estimates whether new or old.

GOOD LUCK

 

[master.on]

I fuckin sick of all of it! I know this is stupid to say but I'm about to the point where I'm like "infect me or IDGAF"!!!!!

Are you ready for the 15-20% chance of dying from it?

Why not play Russian roulette instead?
There are some 8 round revolver guns if that helps.

Per Worldometer as of May 1st

NYC has a CMR of .28%

This will be updated by them on June 1st. That percentage will remain about the same
@Dr JIM where specifically does this 18% CMR exist in America because the source of info you shared with us (we've already been following worldometer for a minute now, seems to be basically the best aggregate source of covid info out there) says something completely different.

As simple as their math to determine CMR is different than yours, or?

Mortality rate made simple:

COVID-19 has basically 2 outcomes:
Recovering or dying from it (well, some "recovered" but still sick people can later die from it but we will ignore it for simplicity's sake)

So you divide:
Dead people / resolved cases

Which equals:
Dead people / (dead + recovered)
Because resolved cases only have these 2 outcomes as previously discussed.

So you get the 15-20% REAL figure.

I think you're right. I mean the guy is talking about covid death rates of 15-20%. WTF? Come on, man.

That is a steaming pile of horseshit. Except horseshit has some value because it grows great vegetables.

Please read above.

you would have to be a fool to believe that covid 19 has anything approaching 18% fatality rate. Worldometer also provides the number of serious/critical cases and this number is between 1-2% of all active cases. That means that of all the active cases between 98-99% are non life threatening. Also, I challenge anyone to take a look at Singapore’s infection to death rate. They have one of the highest infection rates in the world and their death rate is practically non-existent. Feel free to debate me on this I’m more than happy to reply.

We're not talking about critical cases, that's BS and leads to opinions on what's critical and what's not.

Dead or not dead is clear cut and simple to understand.
Please read about the true mortality rate above.

just a quick question i have an appointment tom at a hospital something not corona related. Is it safe to go there or will i be at a higher risk of catching this shit?

IMO if it's something urgent or important, then yes go to the hospital now, as the cases will likely skyrocket in the next 1-2 years and it will become riskier than it's now.

You’ll likely be diagnosed with covid 19 wether you have it or not.. it’s all about pumping up the fake numbers so they can continue to push their global agenda

Some governments, agencies and hospitals are pushing numbers up (often for fearmongering and pushing political agencies), while others are pushing numbers DOWN, to make believe everything will soon return back to normal (which will not).

So I'd say they kind of roughly balance each other. Some pushing numbers up while others push them downwards.

Unfortunately he fails to mention how a "huge number of asymptomatic people" are quantified in the UK or elsewhere.

And consequently the broad brush opinions of this author and those like him will be ignored in the absence of prospective evidence.

jim

Asymptomatic people has been highly exaggerated.

Most are actually PRE-symptomatic patients, as lots of people take way longer than the WHO proposed 14-day quarantine period.

As you may know, the WHO actually wants get MORE people infected from the virus, not less as they should.

My understanding is he made estimates based on cruise ships using the number of infected with and without symptoms. Then determined the number of asymptomatic people in different countries based on the number of known infections with symptoms and the ratio from the cruise ships.

MOST of them later developed symptoms.
Please read above.

CDC quietly releases the numbers on SARS-COV2.

Where’s the coverage, media??

Press releases appear to only matter when they can cause a frenzy.

Just to update:

* Ro = 2.5. I’ve had this graphic for over a month. Why did it take so long for the CDC to release this same information to the public?? And why do so, so covertly?

* NOTHING to indicate it lives or spreads from surfaces (testing now completed via lab)

* NOTHING to indicate any transfer opportunities from an Asymptomatic Carrier

* NOTHING to indicate that you can be re-infected (testing now completed on the prior suspected reinfections showed the tests hit positive on dead virus because the tests couldn't distinguish live from dead at that time)

* The new death rate is .26% (0.0026). This includes people who died in hospices from existing disease, traumas and other causes of deaths who cultured positive post mortem or didn't culture at all but lives with someone who did.

As reference, the flu is 0.1-0.3%

Ro and SCFR by age and new links in this CDC page. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavir…/…/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Explains what you’re looking at on the CDC page
https://www.conservativereview.com/…/horowitz-cdc-confirms…/

Further corroborates.
Facts about Covid-19

Surfaces
https://www.foxnews.com/…/cdc-now-says-coronavirus-does-not…

Asymptomatic carriers
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32405162/…
“...there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission.”
https://www.who.int/…/situa…/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf

Reinfections
https://www.sciencenews.org/…/coronavirus-covid19-reinfecti…

Are you angry yet? We destroyed the economy over this. We tore apart friends and families over this. We attacked our fellow AMERICANS over this. THEY MANIPULATED OUR EMOTIONS over this.

For what? To make money. For a “treatment” with a cost of $1000 per dose that showed a measly 3.6% drop in fatality rate, and a reduction in ICU from 15 to a “whopping” 11 days as a standard of care (remdesivir)? Despite ample data that another cheaper treatment at 60¢ per dose that works when given early and paired with zinc. Have you seen one hydroxychloroquine study that was done where they gave it at the onset of symptoms and paired it with zinc? No. You saw one where they gave it as a last ditch Hail Mary when it was already too late for antivirals to work, and no mention of zinc.

https://aapsonline.org/a-tale-of-two-drugs-money-vs-medica…/

Why? Nothing could interfere with the $750 BILLION they stand to gain from the vaccine for the entire planet.

Profits over science. Profits over LIVES and livelihoods!!

And to chip away at our freedoms.

Time to get angry at the SOURCE. And not each other. STAND TOGETHER and FIGHT for our constitutional LIBERTIES before it’s TOO LATE.

Let me be clear. The media (most of them) are the problem. But the SOURCE is the pharmaceutical interests that fund them, and threaten them, control them. The puppet masters need to be stopped.

‘We could open up again and forget the whole thing’

Epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski on the deadly consequences of lockdown.

SPIKED
15th May 2020
Share
POLITICS SCIENCE & TECH UK USAWORLD
Governments around the world say they are following ‘The Science’ with their draconian measures to stem the spread of the virus. But the science around Covid-19is bitterly contested. Many experts have serious doubts about the effectiveness of the measures, and argue that our outsized fears of Covid-19 are not justified. Knut Wittkowski is one such expert who has long argued for a change of course. For 20 years, Wittkowski was the head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University’s Center for Clinical and Translational Science. spiked spoke to him to find out more about the pandemic.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/youtube-censors-epidemiologist-knut-wittkowski-for-opposing-lockdown/

By Jon Levine

May 16, 2020 | 1:10pm | Updated

Big Tech companies are aggressively tamping down on COVID-19 “misinformation” — opinions and ideas contrary to official pronouncements.

Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, former head of biostatistics, epidemiology and research design at Rockefeller University, says YouTube removed a video of him talking about the virus that had racked up more than 1.3 million views.

I was just explaining what we had,” Wittkowski told The Post of the video, saying he had no idea why it was removed. The footage was produced by the British film company Journeyman Pictures.

“They don’t tell you. They just say it violates our community standards. There’s no explanation for what those standards are or what standards it violated.”

“Anything that goes against [World Health Organization] recommendations would be a violation of our policy and so removal is another really important part of our policy,” (YouTube) CEO Susan Wojcicki told CNN.

The CDC not only cares on how many people will die or recover.
They mainly take into account HOW FAST people will get infected or die. As it can overload hospitals.

Turns out his numbers were accurate. Do a simple good search of CDC “best estimate”. Numerous articles will come up. I haven’t taken the time to find it on the cdc website yet.
Essentially the CDC is predicting an infection fatality rate of 0.26% and for those under the age of fifty it drops to 0.05%. Even CNN is reporting it. Of course on CNN they found a doctor to dispute the findings.

The CDC is not saying that only 0.26% will die.
They use this figures because they need to forecast HOW FAST can people hit the hospitals
... or the morgues.

Are you saying more than 646,000 people will die from covid 19 this year?

Maybe, but IMO it's likely to be over 250k - 300k

What I foresee is that in a few months the world deaths will hit the ONE MILLION mark, and that's with the world economy partially locked down.

Only then all the stupid people and stupid governments will realize that this is really deadly virus and we're risking TENS, IF NOT HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of dead people.

That reality check will make the Great Depression look good in comparison.

 

[Villain]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cdc-acknowledges-mixing-up-coronavirus-testing-data/ar-BB14qGHG?ocid=sf2.

 

[flenser]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cdc-acknowledges-mixing-up-coronavirus-testing-data/ar-BB14qGHG?ocid=sf2.

I thought that was already known, and one of the reasons I keep saying the data we have is mostly BS. Now they are going to separate the numbers, or try to, and probably use the new bogus numbers to extend the lockdowns even more.

 

[Villain]

I thought that was already known, and one of the reasons I keep saying the data we have is mostly BS. Now they are going to separate the numbers, or try to, and probably use the new bogus numbers to extend the lockdowns even more.

It could go either way. With more reports coming out about the mishandling of this situation, the government may try more lockdowns but the public is catching on to the fear tactics and garbage that’s been put on us.

 

[Villain]

CDC Estimates Put COVID Fatality Rate at 0.26%, Over 13 Times Lower Than Initial WHO Claim

More to consider

 

[dd340]

CDC Estimates Put COVID Fatality Rate at 0.26%, Over 13 Times Lower Than Initial WHO Claim

More to consider

When I look at the charts of the infection rates it takes approximately 8 weeks from the peak of the virus within a country before the rates will drop down to around 1/5 to 1/10 of the peak. The US should see that happen around June 25. So after this date it will be virtually impossible to keep anyone locked down. The exception being the true believers. Everyone will go on with their lives.

 

[Villain]

When I look at the charts of the infection rates it takes approximately 8 weeks from the peak of the virus within a country before the rates will drop down to around 1/5 to 1/10 of the peak. The US should see that happen around June 25. So after this date it will be virtually impossible to keep anyone locked down. The exception being the true believers. Everyone will go on with their lives.

But the difference this time is the fear that was planted worldwide. That is the difference between this and everything else.

 

[Dr JIM]

Here's the facts based upon KNOWN data from Johns Hopkins or worldometer.

Confirmed cases = 1717593
Deaths = 100277
Recovered = 468438

Crude Fatality Rate (as in KNOWN fatality rate) = 21%
BEST Case Fatality Rate assuming no one else dies OR becomes infected = 8%

While early mortality rates overestimate the CFR of any pandemic, (for comparison SARS-COV initial mortality 21% final CFR 9%) based upon existing data in order to reach a 1% Case Fatality Rate, we need roughly SIX MILLION more COVID-19 infections and NO MORE deaths.

And since current data reveals, 20% of those infected with COVID-19 will require hospital admission and 5-10% of those will die, many more deaths will occur because this is one nasty virus that attacks the lungs with a vengeance and reeks havoc elsewhere in the human body.

Wanna reach a conservative CFR estimate of 1.3% ? See the attached citation.

JIM

 

[Perrin Aybara]

 

[Dr JIM]

The fact is although roughly 50% of infections are "mild", the other 50% are anything but, with very troubling and lifestyle changing signs and symptoms.

One good fella age 37, wo any risk factors, compared his COVID-19 experience to "high dose DNP with mononucleosis" but what troubled him the most was the SOB and inability to do much of anything EXCEPT lie in bed. Sure he recovered but still doesn't feel "quite right" two months after becoming infected.

So although COVID-19 is a "viral respiratory infection" it's definitely NOT INFLUENZA, and those who make such comparisons would better serve the needs of others by spending a weekend in a hospital screening for and/or "treating" COVID-19 patients.

JIM

 

[ickyrica]

In 2 months the worldwide (official) death toll will hit the 1 Million mark, then panic will break lose.
Mark my words.

What I foresee is that in a few months the world deaths will hit the ONE MILLION mark, and that's with the world economy partially locked down.

Well, you have about 2 weeks left on your first claim. Marked as asked and a failure, wicked shocked kid. Please define a"few" so I know when to pay you another visit

 

[dd340]

Here's the facts based upon KNOWN data from Johns Hopkins or worldometer.

Confirmed cases = 1717593
Deaths = 100277
Recovered = 468438

Crude Fatality Rate (as in KNOWN fatality rate) = 21%
BEST Case Fatality Rate assuming no one else dies OR becomes infected = 8%

While early mortality rates overestimate the CFR of any pandemic, (for comparison SARS-COV initial mortality 21% final CFR 9%) based upon existing data in order to reach a 1% Case Fatality Rate, we need roughly SIX MILLION more COVID-19 infections and NO MORE deaths.

And since current data reveals, 20% of those infected with COVID-19 will require hospital admission and 5-10% of those will die, many more deaths will occur because this is one nasty virus that attacks the lungs with a vengeance and reeks havoc elsewhere in the human body.

Wanna reach a conservative CFR estimate of 1.3% ? See the attached citation.

JIM

Well considering that serological testing has shown more than 10x the number of people with antibodies when compared with confirmed cases your 6 million additional cases with 0 additional deaths would be pretty simple to achieve.

 

[flenser]

The fact is although roughly 50% of infections are "mild", the other 50% are anything but, with very troubling and lifestyle changing signs and symptoms.

One good fella age 37, wo any risk factors, compared his COVID-19 experience to "high dose DNP with mononucleosis" but what troubled him the most was the SOB and inability to do much of anything EXCEPT lie in bed. Sure he recovered but still doesn't feel "quite right" two months after becoming infected.

So although COVID-19 is a "viral respiratory infection" it's definitely NOT INFLUENZA, and those who make such comparisons would better serve the needs of others by spending a weekend in a hospital screening for and/or "treating" COVID-19 patients.

JIM

Neither is it the "Spanish" Flu. Nearly all of the 50% of anything-but-mild infections are retired, in long term care, assisted living, etc. There was never any reason to put them at risk. There was also never any reason to sequester everyone else.

But I get what you are saying. We have a tendency to downplay the impact of the virus, because that impact forms the basis for the oppressive actions of our governments which is what most of us are really against. It doesn't change the fact that certain precautions are warranted to protect ourselves and our families.

 

[hfo369]

“Covid 19” the plan. “Never waste a good crisis”
“Divide and conquer”

What is happening to America? “In their wisdom they became fools” ?

You seem like an otherwise intelligent person Jim... however you’re being brainwashed and eaten alive with fear.

 

[Villain]

Early coronavirus CDC tests didn't distinguish between virus and water - Business Insider

 

[Ridethelightningbarefoot]

Are you ready for the 15-20% chance of dying from it?

Why not play Russian roulette instead?
There are some 8 round revolver guns if that helps.



Mortality rate made simple:

COVID-19 has basically 2 outcomes:
Recovering or dying from it (well, some "recovered" but still sick people can later die from it but we will ignore it for simplicity's sake)

So you divide:
Dead people / resolved cases

Which equals:
Dead people / (dead + recovered)
Because resolved cases only have these 2 outcomes as previously discussed.

So you get the 15-20% REAL figure.



Please read above.



We're not talking about critical cases, that's BS and leads to opinions on what's critical and what's not.

Dead or not dead is clear cut and simple to understand.
Please read about the true mortality rate above.



IMO if it's something urgent or important, then yes go to the hospital now, as the cases will likely skyrocket in the next 1-2 years and it will become riskier than it's now.



Some governments, agencies and hospitals are pushing numbers up (often for fearmongering and pushing political agencies), while others are pushing numbers DOWN, to make believe everything will soon return back to normal (which will not).

So I'd say they kind of roughly balance each other. Some pushing numbers up while others push them downwards.



Asymptomatic people has been highly exaggerated.

Most are actually PRE-symptomatic patients, as lots of people take way longer than the WHO proposed 14-day quarantine period.

As you may know, the WHO actually wants get MORE people infected from the virus, not less as they should.



MOST of them later developed symptoms.
Please read above.





The CDC not only cares on how many people will die or recover.
They mainly take into account HOW FAST people will get infected or die. As it can overload hospitals.



The CDC is not saying that only 0.26% will die.
They use this figures because they need to forecast HOW FAST can people hit the hospitals
... or the morgues.



Maybe, but IMO it's likely to be over 250k - 300k

What I foresee is that in a few months the world deaths will hit the ONE MILLION mark, and that's with the world economy partially locked down.

Only then all the stupid people and stupid governments will realize that this is really deadly virus and we're risking TENS, IF NOT HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of dead people.

That reality check will make the Great Depression look good in comparison.

There is too much mixed information for you to make all of these absolute claims. We probably won't know real data for a while. Unless you yourself have access to information that is not available to the public then you aren't telling us anything that is not already available to us which is a blended pile of shit. Like you aren't Moses with the ten commandments your just another fucking guy on a soap box. Opinions are like assholes; everyone has one and they all stink
Also has anyone noticed how politically motivated this all is? The left is coming up with info that contradicts the right and the same is true on the other side. Why should this be connected to politics at all it's a fucking virus.

 

[Villain]

There is too much mixed information for you to make all of these absolute claims. We probably won't know real data for a while. Unless you yourself have access to information that is not available to the public then you aren't telling us anything that is not already available to us which is a blended pile of shit. Like you aren't Moses with the ten commandments your just another fucking guy on a soap box. Opinions are like assholes; everyone has one and they all stink
Also has anyone noticed how politically motivated this all is? The left is coming up with info that contradicts the right and the same is true on the other side. Why should this be connected to politics at all it's a fucking virus.

Couldn’t have worded it better myself. When the “experts” can’t even get their info to agree, we’re supposed to believe the worst - is that how this works?