Can touching a barbell in the gym get you sick with the coronavirus?

[Michael Scally MD]

USC-LA County Study: Early Results of Antibody Testing Suggest Number of COVID-19 Infections Far Exceeds Number of Confirmed Cases in Los Angeles County
Preliminary results of USC-LA County COVID-19 study released

Los Angeles (April 20, 2020) – USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) today released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread – and the fatality rate much lower — in L.A. County than previously thought.

The results are from the first round of an ongoing study by USC researchers and Public Health officials. They will be conducting antibody testing over time on a series of representative samples of adults to determine the scope and spread of the pandemic across the county.

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus.

Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus— which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection.

That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.

“We haven’t known the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we have only tested people with symptoms, and the availability of tests has been limited,” said lead investigator Neeraj Sood, a USC professor of public policy at USC Price School for Public Policy and senior fellow at USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics. “The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies.”

The results have important implications for public health efforts to control the local epidemic.

 

[ickyrica]

The delayed and lack of testing here seems to boarder on belligerence. And reveals a deep underlying weakness in the health system and lack of preparation.

I am of the mindset that we are very capable of delivering and processing these tests. We are not doing so for other reasons, imo.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

USC-LA County Study: Early Results of Antibody Testing Suggest Number of COVID-19 Infections Far Exceeds Number of Confirmed Cases in Los Angeles County
Preliminary results of USC-LA County COVID-19 study released

Los Angeles (April 20, 2020) – USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) today released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread – and the fatality rate much lower — in L.A. County than previously thought.

The results are from the first round of an ongoing study by USC researchers and Public Health officials. They will be conducting antibody testing over time on a series of representative samples of adults to determine the scope and spread of the pandemic across the county.

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus.

Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus— which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection.

That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.

“We haven’t known the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we have only tested people with symptoms, and the availability of tests has been limited,” said lead investigator Neeraj Sood, a USC professor of public policy at USC Price School for Public Policy and senior fellow at USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics. “The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies.”

The results have important implications for public health efforts to control the local epidemic.

They seem to be using the same negative controls as the Stanford Santa Clara preprint, which may make the vulnerable to the same false positive issues as that study.

Based on this Q&A, don't know if there's a preprint.

What a USC-LA County antibody study can teach us about COVID-19 - Press Room

 

[ickyrica]

Ticketmaster Will Offer Refunds On Shows And Events Canceled By Pandemic

I've been waiting for word on Ticketmaster. Last thing I heard about two weeks ago was they weren't going to issue refunds. Now they are starting to loosen up before they get sued ( @Old I endorse a lawsuit in this case fwiw ). They have two refund options: donate your tickets to first responders (not sure how that works if the show is postponed or cancelled?) Or you can exchange them for a future even for up to 150% of the face value.

They are clearly aiming to keep customer cash in house, which in my mind isn't good enough. A free and clear refund policy should be established, or federal bailout money probably shouldn't be applied to the companies bottom line, imo.

They changed their refund policy AFTER the virus broke out, crazy right?

I have a good friend and professional contact that works for Live Nation (left arm of Ticketmaster) and word is they aren't going to budge on the refunds. What that tells me is Ticketmaster will go belly up if they need to issue cash refunds against cancelled shows.

I have a fist full of Chris Stapleton VIP tickets for August through Live Nation. Well over a grand in limbo...

 

[ickyrica]

Who is dying from the coronavirus in Massachusetts? | Boston.com

Here are some specific stats pertaining to Massachusetts. It's a pretty comprehensive list, using many demographics to illustrate what's happening in the state based on available facts.

 

[ickyrica]

Who is dying from the coronavirus in Massachusetts? | Boston.com

Here are some specific stats pertaining to Massachusetts. It's a pretty comprehensive list, using many demographics to illustrate what's happening in the state based on available facts.

The last stat, total hospital capacity by region, shows about an average of 50% availability of beds that are suitable for covid. We are currently at our peak and can withstand quite a bit more volume in the hospitals.

This shows one of three things... Massachusetts has an amazing capacity for handling a global pandemic (I think we have a high infection rate compared to most metropolis areas, not 100% on that), the expected quantity of infected that need immediate care is much lower than anticipated, or a combo of the two which is more likely the case imo.

It's encouraging.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Soooooo I have been writing reviews for about ten years. My wife's review of Alien puts everything I have ever written to shame.

"Alien is a movie where nobody listens to the smart woman, and then they all die except for the smart woman and her cat. Four stars."






[2012] The Economic Predictions In The Original 'Alien' Are A Lot Scarier Than The Creature
The Economic Predictions In The Original 'Alien' Are A Lot Scarier Than The Creature

 

[Old]

Soooooo I have been writing reviews for about ten years. My wife's review of Alien puts everything I have ever written to shame.

"Alien is a movie where nobody listens to the smart woman, and then they all die except for the smart woman and her cat. Four stars."

View attachment 128909

View attachment 128910


[2012] The Economic Predictions In The Original 'Alien' Are A Lot Scarier Than The Creature
The Economic Predictions In The Original 'Alien' Are A Lot Scarier Than The Creature

The art of listening is a lost art.

 

[Old]

Liability for infecting others



Thousands sign up to US class action to sue China over coronavirus

 

[Old]

Do people have the right to infect others by living their life as they wish? Or do they have liability for doing so?

US state sues China over virus handling

 

[Old]

They seem to be using the same negative controls as the Stanford Santa Clara preprint, which may make the vulnerable to the same false positive issues as that study.

Based on this Q&A, don't know if there's a preprint.

What a USC-LA County antibody study can teach us about COVID-19 - Press Room

It would be helpful if tests were actually accurate. For 'active' testing, false negatives are a problem whereas false positives are not. For antibodies, false positives are the problem

Normally, a bug is obvious and one isolates the sick. Covid19 is tricky because it has a long incubation and most simply don't get sick or just mildly so.

If everyone completely isolated for a few weeks, then it would be resolved. The markets would adjust to the blip and life would go on. But only doomsday preppers are that self-sufficient. Most of the worlds population would starve.

So it is necessary for crops to be grown, food to be delivered and distributed as 'normal'. These 'essential' personnel must not be carrying the virus. But without testing nobody knows.

The current restrictions are a compromise to a bad situation with the hopes to reduce total death and buy time for a cure or preventative to be discovered. Accurate antibody testing would help open up the economy without an undesired backlash.


The problem is more that just can one catch it from touching a barbell. These two reports discuss meat safety concerns.

Meat packing plants: COVID may force choice of worker health or food



The good news is Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

"We are not aware of any reports at this time of human illnesses that suggest COVID-19 can be transmitted by food or food packaging"​

 

[master.on]

USC-LA County Study: Early Results of Antibody Testing Suggest Number of COVID-19 Infections Far Exceeds Number of Confirmed Cases in Los Angeles County
Preliminary results of USC-LA County COVID-19 study released

Los Angeles (April 20, 2020) – USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) today released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread – and the fatality rate much lower — in L.A. County than previously thought.

The results are from the first round of an ongoing study by USC researchers and Public Health officials. They will be conducting antibody testing over time on a series of representative samples of adults to determine the scope and spread of the pandemic across the county.

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus.

Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus— which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection.

That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.

“We haven’t known the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we have only tested people with symptoms, and the availability of tests has been limited,” said lead investigator Neeraj Sood, a USC professor of public policy at USC Price School for Public Policy and senior fellow at USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics. “The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies.”

The results have important implications for public health efforts to control the local epidemic.

That's BS
they want to sell false hopes no matter what.

Even for the Cellex, the only FDA approved antibody test, it has like a 4% a FALSE POSITIVE rate.

And those "studies" were made with crappy chinese tests whose actual accuracy is more like 30-50%

So, even if the current antibody rate were nearly zero in the general population, those crappy fast tests provide too many false positives.

 

[movingiron88]

That's BS
they want to sell false hopes no matter what.

Even for the Cellex, the only FDA approved antibody test, it has like a 4% a FALSE POSITIVE rate.

And those "studies" were made with crappy chinese tests whose actual accuracy is more like 30-50%

So, even if the current antibody rate were nearly zero in the general population, those crappy fast tests provide too many false positives.

You and them are fearful pussies and want to instill fear in the people.

 

[ergomaniac]

It would be helpful if tests were actually accurate. For 'active' testing, false negatives are a problem whereas false positives are not. For antibodies, false positives are the problem

Normally, a bug is obvious and one isolates the sick. Covid19 is tricky because it has a long incubation and most simply don't get sick or just mildly so.

Inaccurate testing, most people simply don't get sick or just mildly so, and a possibility of 50 times as many people having been exposed as confirmed... that sure is one "tricky" virus.

 

[chileandawg]

Soooooo I have been writing reviews for about ten years. My wife's review of Alien puts everything I have ever written to shame.

"Alien is a movie where nobody listens to the smart woman, and then they all die except for the smart woman and her cat. Four stars."

View attachment 128909

View attachment 128910


[2012] The Economic Predictions In The Original 'Alien' Are A Lot Scarier Than The Creature
The Economic Predictions In The Original 'Alien' Are A Lot Scarier Than The Creature

Complex Feminist Conversations

Beyond Universality

 

[Dresden]

I’m entitled to my opinion.

You are the definition of a liberal, if one doesn’t agree with you, you resort to childish name calling. Very mature.

Wow...you just described the Republican President

 

[Theworm]

Wow...you just described the Republican President

Trump 2020!

 

[ickyrica]

and a possibility of 50 times as many people having been exposed as confirmed

this is one stat that has me head ready to explode. Apparently the curve is much larger, and conversely less deadly, than anticipated. Woohoo

I can't wait to read the accurate covid storyline, on Monday morning lol.

I know everyone is doing their best here, and it's a new ball game for all of us. The experts have a shit load to study and learn from this one. We all do. Sadly, this could be a 'dry run' for a real virus some day. Imagine Ebola with a transmission rate 1/4 as bad ass as Covid. Goodby humanity.

And fwiw, I took a look at MLB stats from 1918 & 1919. They didn't miss a beat. Measles, mumps, rubella, polio and Spanish flu. They got up and lived life, but the death rate shows it.

 

[Old]

Inaccurate testing, most people simply don't get sick or just mildly so, and a possibility of 50 times as many people having been exposed as confirmed... that sure is one "tricky" virus.

"tricky" or not, its got the planet all stirred up. And with data all over the place:

• USS Theodore Roosevelt had 4,800 crew, mostly young males. Confined space relatively speaking. When tested, only 660 tested positive. Of these 60% had no symptoms. One died. That is just slightly more than the US death rate for 'normal' flu (0.7 person per 4,800). Sounds mild. Only a couple parents will cry ... and the captain who lost his job for seeking help for his men.
• China reports 4,632 deaths out of a population of 1.4 billion. So the 'standard' flu is 45 times more lethal than Covid19.
• Worldwide 'closed cases' 898,676 with 183,491 deaths. That's 20% death rate ... 1333 times more deadly than 'regular' flu.
• USA 'closed cases' 130,986 with 47,227 deaths. That's 36% death rate ... 2400 times more deadly than 'regular' flu.

So does the world have an accurate understanding of this little microbe? What is all the fuss about? Are the tests accurate? Do the statisticians know what they are doing? What numbers would we look at? Should everyone go back to normal right now? Shall people fight over toilet paper? Ugly women keep protesting about their right to go to their hairdresser? Shall India shut down their whole economy? Or Trump suggested restrictions then tweet in support of protest about restrictions? And more health care workers keep dying over a fictitious problem? Shall the Surgeon General keep telling us that masks don't help the general public while the CDC tells us how to make our own? (Origami?) Shall governments sue China over such a little thing? ... after all its only got a diameter of ~60–140 nm. Shall a medical problem continue to be turned into political arguments? Why seek a cure or vaccine for it? And why is it taking so long with all these 'brilliant' minds at work? What's wrong with the Kenya governor putting Hennessy bottles in coronavirus care packages?

What's so "tricky" about this all? Influenza A and B sure missed the party.