How long have you guys been locked down?
MESO-Rx
Anabolic Steroids
Can touching a barbell in the gym get you sick with the coronavirus?
- Thread starter Michael Scally MD
- Start date
Because the data you quoted is over a week old. The worldometer data and data used by the media is real-time updates as of now (4/26/2020) At around 3000 deaths per day for the past several days, that accounts for the difference.
The end date of 4/18/2020 appeared on the page immediately before your capture:
That's fucked up, that's on the CDC main page as current stats. I have to have missed an updated section or something. Thanks
This appears to be CDC's current update page:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
It's the "data as of 4-24-2020" part that grabbed my attention most likely. Definitely grabbed the wrong info
It took me a few minutes to figure out the discrepancy too. It was definitely not clear.
Thank you, I've been working off another link that apparently is weekly update. I'm glad you brought this to my attention because the sliver of hope I have left for the media's integrity was fading faster by the second. I should have taken a closer look when I saw that number, I assumed the reporting was purposely erroneous. Need to be better regarding fact checking with this stuff.
Even the CDC update page is 2 days old. Why does Worldometer do a better job aggregating data for real-time updates than the CDC?
Woldometer is widely considered a credible source. It is published by Dadax. Dadax?
"Worldometers.info is owned by Dadax, an independent company, and run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world.
We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation."
We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation."
Who'd think getting accurate data during a global pandemic would be so difficult
Worldometers - Media Bias/Fact Check
I had some reservations with them at first but they are a for profit company, income is purely from advertising revenue. It would undermine their profit potential to put out shady stats.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/amid-coronavirus-crisis-heart-stroke-153340811.html
Perrin Aybara
Master
I think about 4-5 weeks now. The governor just extended it through the end of May.
Here's where coronavirus cases are in Boston by neighborhood | Boston.com
On average Boston is testing positive in the 30% range. Across the entire city, not just small neighborhoods. Again, showing how efficient the virus is at spreading.
Even still, out of around 2900 deaths Massachusetts is looking at around 150 of those deaths being under the age of 60. Bump that total to about 425 if you push that age up to 70.
150 out of 2900. This number of 150 looks even smaller when you break it down some more.
34000 have been confirmed under the age of 60.
20000 have been confirmed over that age.
So now we are looking at death/infection rate of:
150/34000 & 2750/20000
(Regarding the over 60 group)
Out of the 34000 (under 60yrs old) that have been confirmed as infected, about 1500 needed the hospital. Out of the 20000 (over 60yrs old) 3500 needed the hospital.
Quick recap by the numbers:
Under 60 yrs old-
34000 test positive.
1500 need medical help
150 die
Over 60 yrs old-
20000 test positive
3500 need medical help
2750 die
Wait, there's more! When you exclude the biggest risk factor group (60 yrs old and up) and focus exclusively on the under 60 crowd we can extrapolate an even more telling number:
98.1% of deaths had a known underlying condition.
98.1% out of 150 people. That's a single digit number folks. Out of all the young people that have died in Massachusetts from covid, we are looking at about 3 people that kicked the bucket that were "perfectly healthy".
We really could start to find other ways to handle this issue, could we not?
Coronavirus map: Here's where cases are reported in Massachusetts | Boston.com there is a 'latest information' link in this hyperlink. It's a brilliant breakdown of what's happening across my state. Breaks it down to ppe distribution, nursing home stats throughout the state, etc. Good aggregate numbers
On average Boston is testing positive in the 30% range. Across the entire city, not just small neighborhoods. Again, showing how efficient the virus is at spreading.
Even still, out of around 2900 deaths Massachusetts is looking at around 150 of those deaths being under the age of 60. Bump that total to about 425 if you push that age up to 70.
150 out of 2900. This number of 150 looks even smaller when you break it down some more.
34000 have been confirmed under the age of 60.
20000 have been confirmed over that age.
So now we are looking at death/infection rate of:
150/34000 & 2750/20000
(Regarding the over 60 group)
Out of the 34000 (under 60yrs old) that have been confirmed as infected, about 1500 needed the hospital. Out of the 20000 (over 60yrs old) 3500 needed the hospital.
Quick recap by the numbers:
Under 60 yrs old-
34000 test positive.
1500 need medical help
150 die
Over 60 yrs old-
20000 test positive
3500 need medical help
2750 die
Wait, there's more! When you exclude the biggest risk factor group (60 yrs old and up) and focus exclusively on the under 60 crowd we can extrapolate an even more telling number:
98.1% of deaths had a known underlying condition.
98.1% out of 150 people. That's a single digit number folks. Out of all the young people that have died in Massachusetts from covid, we are looking at about 3 people that kicked the bucket that were "perfectly healthy".
We really could start to find other ways to handle this issue, could we not?
Coronavirus map: Here's where cases are reported in Massachusetts | Boston.com there is a 'latest information' link in this hyperlink. It's a brilliant breakdown of what's happening across my state. Breaks it down to ppe distribution, nursing home stats throughout the state, etc. Good aggregate numbers
Old
New Member
My beef with the data is how incomplete it is regardless of how it is presented. Not enough to balance safety through isolation with keeping the supply of goods flowing.
Using China numbers [ Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer ], if the government thought that the death rate of people below 50 is 0.4 or less, then they may have implemented a different kind of lockdown based on age. By implementing methods already proposed they could even gone with just retired and sick must isolate but the rest can take protective measure but remain employed.
The reason for lesser restrictions would be to keep jobs going. Unlike the UK in which the people get paid during lockdowns and they get their job back once a lockdown is over, many people in the USA suffer permanent setbacks - millions left unemployed.
Not know the most important question, "How dangerous to a healthy workforce is this virus?" Has left only a reactionary response to 'anecdotal' evidence (for lack of a better term).
Each country and each source (CDC, Dadax, Wiki, ...) has different number but are mainly weighted on outcomes of seriously infected.
There are reports (data manipulation?) that more have been infected without harm, suggests the lockdown was excessive.
But 'anecdotal' evidence, such as many Tyson plants having outbreaks, show that healthy meat packers have gotten quite ill.
So how does a government make a good decision about a pandemic? Some, such as NY, have chosen the side of compassion. They were hit hard from the virus arriving on flights from Europe. Was this practical? How well will it work as they gradually release the restrictions? And preping hospitals for almost exclusive Covid 19 have left other with serious problems untreated - at least there are several that I personally know (so the expression of compassion has been imperfect). Any way, the human race will survive.
Not testing early has lead to blind responses. Yes, a pandemic of a new pathogen does require new specific testing to be developed. But it was available in January. Antibody testing much later.
So to some degree, it has been irresponsable to not at lease do thorough clustered testing of affected areas to get an idea to make decisions on.
There are other types of incomplete data, such as WHO pointing out we do not yet know if there is immunity of those that recovered. A point I mentioned and was accused of 'fear mongering' by some.
Now WHO did so for at least a couple of reasons:
- Some countries are issuing certificates to recovered individuals that declare them safe and free to travel.
- South Korea has had a 2% reinfection rate of recovered individuals and Wuhan has had a 5% reinfection rate.
Likely there is improved immunity. The reinfections could be other factors. And if we get some immunity ... well that is better than where they were to start with - partially vaccinated.
Again, insufficient data.
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Jankauskas
Member
Old
New Member
A 4/28/2020 Washington Post article, "new tests support consensus: Coronavirus is far more lethal than flu" [ can only pull up text on iPad ]
Some keep hoping that Covid 19 will go away soon. Fauci says otherwise. Summer heat has often been sited as getting ride of the virus. But note some points in this article, Virus Likely to Keep Coming Back Each Year, Say Top Chinese Scientists
My concern is that Estrogen increases platelet aggregation and thus encourages clotting. Covid 19 has a feature of causing clotting (strokes) even in young men with mild/asymptomatic cases.
Testosterone has been a focus of why more men die from this but there is more to gender than T. Also, while T increases platelet production just as with RBCs, it also reduces platelet aggregation. So perhaps more T and less E2 (using and AI).
As it is, depending on what phase of a woman's cycle, their E2 isn't much more that men. Post menopausal women often have significantly less E2 then men. And its this older population where lethality is the greatest. As the article states, “But if women are better at recovery at 93 years old, I doubt it’s hormones.”
E2 also increases inflammation ... something not wanted when a case gets more severe. T has a bell shaped curve and in the center region it is an anti-inflammatory. So this might be something else to consider.
Perhaps since a woman's genitals are more vulnerable ['open'] to infection, they develop a more robust immune system. Its also adaptive so as not to reject a fetus. But this is just an idea and have not looked for medical support for it.
Not sure about trying progesterone.
- On Monday, 25% of NYC tested for antibodies. That brings the fatality rate between 0.5 and 0.8 depending on which death toll is factored
- "Shaman and his colleagues have developed a model of the coronavirus spread that estimates that only 1 in 12 infections in the United States have been documented in official counts. That leads to an infection fatality rate of 0.6 percent"
- "United States could potentially experience 1 million deaths if half the population became infected and no efforts were made to limit the contagion ... That's 20 times worse than a bad flu season"
- Santa Clara study - "Extrapolating from that, it gave an estimated infection fatality rate of between 0.12 and 0.2 percent"
Some keep hoping that Covid 19 will go away soon. Fauci says otherwise. Summer heat has often been sited as getting ride of the virus. But note some points in this article, Virus Likely to Keep Coming Back Each Year, Say Top Chinese Scientists
- “The virus is heat sensitive, but that’s when it’s exposed to 56 degrees Celsius for 30 minutes and the weather is never going to get that hot” - that's 132 degree F.
- "Chinese scientists say the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, adding to a growing consensus around the world that the pathogen will likely return in waves like the flu."
- “This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies”
Thanks for the article.
My concern is that Estrogen increases platelet aggregation and thus encourages clotting. Covid 19 has a feature of causing clotting (strokes) even in young men with mild/asymptomatic cases.
Testosterone has been a focus of why more men die from this but there is more to gender than T. Also, while T increases platelet production just as with RBCs, it also reduces platelet aggregation. So perhaps more T and less E2 (using and AI).
As it is, depending on what phase of a woman's cycle, their E2 isn't much more that men. Post menopausal women often have significantly less E2 then men. And its this older population where lethality is the greatest. As the article states, “But if women are better at recovery at 93 years old, I doubt it’s hormones.”
E2 also increases inflammation ... something not wanted when a case gets more severe. T has a bell shaped curve and in the center region it is an anti-inflammatory. So this might be something else to consider.
Perhaps since a woman's genitals are more vulnerable ['open'] to infection, they develop a more robust immune system. Its also adaptive so as not to reject a fetus. But this is just an idea and have not looked for medical support for it.
Not sure about trying progesterone.
Regarding the problems of manipulation of the data and insufficient testing...
I really liked the article's careful explanation of the differences between:
Case fatality rate vs. infection fatality rate
Most people don't know the difference. Many think the terms are interchangeable or use them both as an indicator of the "death rate". This is either from ignorance or politicization or both.
For example, I've frequently seen people compare Covid-19 case fatality rate to standard influenza infection fatality rate. This is an apples and oranges comparison. It exaggerates danger of Covid-19.
And now, people are comparing the estimated Covid-19 infection fatality rate to standard influencza case fatality rate. Also apples and oranges. It minimizes the severity of Covid-19.
Here is the author's explanation of the difference:
'But the two numbers describe different things: The first is a case fatality rate, reflecting deaths among people with confirmed diagnoses of covid-19. The second is the infection fatality rate, extrapolated from the antibody surveys.
'In other words, both numbers can be correct, and useful.
'“Those higher numbers of case fatality rates, they’re still true,” Viboud said. “It’s your probability of dying if you’re clinically sick with it, which is something that people may care about, too.”
'Moreover, the fatality rate of a virus, however it is defined, is not an innate feature of the pathogen. It depends on many variables, including the age and health of the population and access to health care. Timing matters, too: In China the fatality rate was high during the initial phase of the outbreak, when hospitals were overwhelmed and doctors struggled to cope with the crisis.
[...]
'A commonly cited statistic about seasonal flu is that it has a fatality rate of 0.1 percent, That, however, is a case fatality rate. The infection fatality rate for flu is perhaps only half that, Viboud said. Shaman estimated that it’s about one-quarter the case fatality rate.'
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...c215d8-87f7-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html
'In other words, both numbers can be correct, and useful.
'“Those higher numbers of case fatality rates, they’re still true,” Viboud said. “It’s your probability of dying if you’re clinically sick with it, which is something that people may care about, too.”
'Moreover, the fatality rate of a virus, however it is defined, is not an innate feature of the pathogen. It depends on many variables, including the age and health of the population and access to health care. Timing matters, too: In China the fatality rate was high during the initial phase of the outbreak, when hospitals were overwhelmed and doctors struggled to cope with the crisis.
[...]
'A commonly cited statistic about seasonal flu is that it has a fatality rate of 0.1 percent, That, however, is a case fatality rate. The infection fatality rate for flu is perhaps only half that, Viboud said. Shaman estimated that it’s about one-quarter the case fatality rate.'
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...c215d8-87f7-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html
master.on
New Member
Weak people can't stand the facts that the mortality rate is about 20%, and some other 30%+ will remain fucked up for life.
"journalists" are nothing more than effeminate, weak cheerleaders who peddle false hopes to weak idiots, when the raw truth is that the world will NEVER be the same again.
Yeah insulting is easy.
Go back to your effeminate, SJW "dreamworld".
While I don't like Cuomo, in fact I consider him an empty suit,
he made a great point: men need to man up!
Just look at China to see what happens when no lockdown is quickly implemented: millions die.
Just Google empty buildings in Wuhan and you'll see videos on how the lights are never turned on in any Wuhan apartment buildings.
In other words there's almost no people living in Wuhan now, it's a ghost town.
Even if half of Wuhan population somehow managed to get out of the city (unlikely), what happened to the other half?
They likely died in neverending reinfection waves.
Scary but true.
Despite being a prestigious university, they came up with a crappy study.
Even a lazy high school kid could do better.
They totally ignored the sky high false positive rate that quick tests have.
What if a vaccine never comes?
What if they peddle a vaccine, pocket the cash and then it turns out that the vaccine doesn't work and infections/reinfections continue to rise?
(this is by far, the most likely scenario)
That fighting spirit that our founding fathers had, seems to have faded or vanished.
Here we go again
You can't use deaths/cases ratio because you don't know the outcome yet, and it may take 20 years or so for all cases to resolve.
So you take dead / resolved cases
where resolved cases = dead + recovered
(and even so, some recovered cases may get reinfected and die in upcoming reinfections)
Real death rate is more like 20%
Please read above.
Some infected people feeling well suddenly fall dead because the virus causes clots that can cause strokes or heart attacks.
Similarly, some infected people, seemingly well suddenly die because the virus harms some neurons that control automatic breathing or hearbeat.
So the true death date is very difficult to know. Made worse because few people want to conduct autopsies on infected patients.
You should ask that to @musclehead320
Boston has 700k residents. 140k is 20%
NYC has 8.5M residents. 1.7M is 20%
your math is so fucking far off the tracks Michael Moore couldn't swing a story to back it up. This has been beaten to a bloody pulp on numerous occasions. Would you just stop already. Even Millard took a dump all over your cracker jack math. He doesn't just come out if the word work to shit on members for the fun of it.
There was a large two day migration out of Wuhan after they opened the city back up. It made worldwide news. It's not scary, or something that needs to be theorized about. They have the residents on film, over the course of a few days, leaving the city after lockdown was lifted. And no, they weren't in caskets dum dum.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost...-hours-after-coronavirus-lockdown-lifted/amp/
and you're wrong again. Their death total is going to be between 12k & 15k. Millions, lol.
what if? Well, wouldn't you imagine life would have to continue anyway? Durrrr...
oh yeah, is it the most likely scenario? The feds have a long track record of not thoroughly vetting meds and just releasing them out to John Q Public don't they? Read what you write before you hit send please.
this what happens when you use an abacus for anything other then counting how many crayons you've jambed in your ears. This slop is specifically what America fights back against when people want to push common core math. You know 1+1+1=3?
You also know the infection rate is turning up as 25-50x more wide spread then originally thought? That makes the death rate smaller than you erect micro cock.
yeah, we covered that. You realize out of a 160k infected persons, 12 people had that happen. 1 died. The rest recovered without issue. This was from Philadelphia and NYC, both cities numbers combined. It's a fragment of a percentage point. Basically it doesn't matter, but it's great fodder for a fear monger.
how did your brain even connect this name to anything? Did one gerbil stop running on a little wheel inside your brain or something? The flow of idiocy petters out after that little guy gets tired?
Your brain is worthless when it comes just about anything other than keeping a heart beating. I'm sorry but whatever shit show is going on up there is sad, do you have a go fund me for that tragedy you call a brain?
Do yourself a favor and take a look at statistics that pertain to under 60. There isn't a linear progression to the seriousness of illness across all ages. There is a stark drop off in the need for invasive medical care when you leave the 60+ group. Plenty have gone to the hospital but an average of about 80% are in and out without any serious medical intervention. Learn the facts and what they mean before you type anything. At least put the fucking bat on the ball once in your lifetime.
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