Can touching a barbell in the gym get you sick with the coronavirus?

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

[OA] Visualizing the Invisible: The Effect of Asymptomatic Transmission on The Outbreak Dynamics of COVID-19

Understanding the outbreak dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic has important implications for successful containment and mitigation strategies. Recent studies suggest that the population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, a proxy for the number of asymptomatic cases, could be an order of magnitude larger than expected from the number of reported symptomatic cases. Knowing the precise prevalence and contagiousness of asymptomatic transmission is critical to estimate the overall dimension and pandemic potential of COVID-19. However, at this stage, the effect of the asymptomatic population, its size, and its outbreak dynamics remain largely unknown.

Here we use reported symptomatic case data in conjunction with antibody seroprevalence studies, a mathematical epidemiology model, and a Bayesian framework to infer the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. Our model computes, in real time, the time-varying contact rate of the outbreak, and projects the temporal evolution and credible intervals of the effective reproduction number and the symptomatic, asymptomatic, and recovered populations.

Our study quantifies the sensitivity of the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 to three parameters:
· the effective reproduction number,
· the ratio between the symptomatic and asymptomatic populations, and
· the infectious periods of both groups.

For nine distinct locations, our model estimates the fraction of the population that has been infected and recovered by Jun 15, 2020 to 24.15% (95% CI: 20.48%-28.14%) for Heinsberg (NRW, Germany), 2.40% (95% CI: 2.09%-2.76%) for Ada County (ID, USA), 46.19% (95% CI: 45.81%-46.60%) for New York City (NY, USA), 11.26% (95% CI: 7.21%-16.03%) for Santa Clara County (CA, USA), 3.09% (95% CI: 2.27%-4.03%) for Denmark, 12.35% (95% CI: 10.03%-15.18%) for Geneva Canton (Switzerland), 5.24% (95% CI: 4.84%-5.70%) for the Netherlands, 1.53% (95% CI: 0.76%-2.62%) for Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), and 5.32% (95% CI: 4.77%-5.93%) for Belgium.

Our method traces the initial outbreak date in Santa Clara County back to January 20, 2020 (95% CI: December 29, 2019 - February 13, 2020).

Our results could significantly change our understanding and management of the COVID-19 pandemic: A large asymptomatic population will make isolation, containment, and tracing of individual cases challenging. Instead, managing community transmission through increasing population awareness, promoting physical distancing, and encouraging behavioral changes could become more relevant.

Peirlinck M, Linka K, Sahli Costabal F, et al. Visualizing the invisible: The effect of asymptomatic transmission on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19. Preprint. medRxiv. 2020;2020.05.23.20111419. Published 2020 Aug 29. doi:10.1101/2020.05.23.20111419 Visualizing the invisible: The effect of asymptomatic transmission on the outbreak dynamics of COVID-19

 

[Millard]

Wayne Sebastianelli — Penn State’s director of athletic medicine:

“You could have a very high-level athlete who’s got a very superior VO2 max and cardiac output who gets infected with COVID and can drop his or her VO2 max and cardiac output just by 10 percent, and that could make them go from elite status to average status,” Sebastianelli said. “We don’t know that. We don’t know how long that’s going to last. What we have seen when people have been studied with cardiac MRI scans — symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID infections — is a level of inflammation in cardiac muscle that just is alarming.”​

 

[ergomaniac]

Coronavirus: Pregnant woman charged for encouraging lockdown protests | 9 News Australia







Victoria Police has attacked people planning protests as “selfish” and double-downed on their decision to arrest a pregnant woman over a Facebook post. Assistant commissioner Luke Cornelius admitted the “optics” of the mother’s arrest were “terrible” but maintained people who were planning to protest Daniel Andrews were “selfish”. He said he was "satisfied" police officers acted appropriately by arrested the mother in front of her children. “I would be the first to acknowledge the optics, for want of a better description, arresting a pregnant female, it's never going to look good,” he said. “The optics of arresting someone who is pregnant is terrible. “Take the selfish option and leave home to protest, we'll be ready for you”.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Sex in a pandemic can be complicated, Canada's lead medical doctor says, and it's best to skip kissing and perhaps wear a mask to prevent spreading Covid-19.

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, issued a public statement Wednesday on staying safe from the virus when engaging in sexual activities.

"Sexual health is an important part of our overall health. However, sex can be complicated in the time of Covid-19..." the statement says, with risks increasing for partners engaging with people outside their household.

"The lowest risk sexual activity during Covid-19 involves yourself alone," Tam advises. But for Canadians choosing to "engage in an in-person sexual encounter" outside their bubble, she suggests a number of steps to reduce risk including "avoiding face-to-face contact or closeness."

A trusting relationship should first be established and partners should also consider using a mask that covers the nose and mouth, Tam says.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[ergomaniac]

Sex in a pandemic can be complicated, Canada's lead medical doctor says, and it's best to skip kissing and perhaps wear a mask to prevent spreading Covid-19.

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, issued a public statement Wednesday on staying safe from the virus when engaging in sexual activities.

"Sexual health is an important part of our overall health. However, sex can be complicated in the time of Covid-19..." the statement says, with risks increasing for partners engaging with people outside their household.

"The lowest risk sexual activity during Covid-19 involves yourself alone," Tam advises. But for Canadians choosing to "engage in an in-person sexual encounter" outside their bubble, she suggests a number of steps to reduce risk including "avoiding face-to-face contact or closeness."

A trusting relationship should first be established and partners should also consider using a mask that covers the nose and mouth, Tam says.

Don't forget to wash your hands as well.
On the upside, masks make butterfaces just hot chicks.

 

[ergomaniac]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Villain]

I find it amazing that airlines don’t have to follow social distancing. No blocking off of seats or removing them. Pea pole still get crammed into these planes and are next to one another for hours on end with only a mask

 

[Villain]

On another note @Michael Scally MD, your thoughts?

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Villain]

I find it amazing that airlines don’t have to follow social distancing. No blocking off of seats or removing them. Pea pole still get crammed into these planes and are next to one another for hours on end with only a mask

Pea pole? What the hell did autocorrect do there?

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Villain]

LMFAO, they were due to the Sturgis rally but few to none were the result of the “peaceful protests.” GTFOH with these blatant lies.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

We estimate that over 250,000 of the reported cases between August 2 and September 2 are due to the Sturgis Rally. Roughly 19 percent of the national cases during this timeframe.

Scientists analyzed the Sturgis rally and the rise of #covid19 cases after people went back home. They estimated it led to over 260,000 cases.

Assuming a cost of $46,000/case, the authors estimated the rally cost $12.2 billion. “This is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend,” they write.

Dave DM, Friedson AI, McNichols D, Sabia JJ. The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19. September 2020. The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19

Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Between August 7 and August 16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 “super-spreader.”

This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19.

First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that
(i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and
(ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events.

Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell.

Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade.

Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates).

We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of approximately $12.2 billion.

 

[Villain]

We estimate that over 250,000 of the reported cases between August 2 and September 2 are due to the Sturgis Rally. Roughly 19 percent of the national cases during this timeframe.

Scientists analyzed the Sturgis rally and the rise of #covid19 cases after people went back home. They estimated it led to over 260,000 cases.

Assuming a cost of $46,000/case, the authors estimated the rally cost $12.2 billion. “This is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend,” they write.

Dave DM, Friedson AI, McNichols D, Sabia JJ. The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19. September 2020. The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19

Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Between August 7 and August 16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 “super-spreader.”

This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19.

First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that
(i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and
(ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events.

Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell.

Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade.

Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates).

We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of approximately $12.2 billion.

And yet the peaceful protests that have been ongoing had no to low impact on cases. Please tell me you don’t honestly believe this bullshit.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Bradykinin and the Coronavirus
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/09/08/bradykinin-and-the-coronavirus

There’s a new paper that a lot of people are talking about recently that presents a rather large unifying hypothesis about the effects of the coronavirus (and suggests some new modes of treatment as well). A mechanistic model and therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 involving a RAS-mediated bradykinin storm | eLife This is the “bradykinin hypothesis”, and before digging into it, it might be worth a paragraph to talk about what bradykinin is.

…