Can touching a barbell in the gym get you sick with the coronavirus?

[Michael Scally MD]

We estimate that over 250,000 of the reported cases between August 2 and September 2 are due to the Sturgis Rally. Roughly 19 percent of the national cases during this timeframe.

Scientists analyzed the Sturgis rally and the rise of #covid19 cases after people went back home. They estimated it led to over 260,000 cases.

Assuming a cost of $46,000/case, the authors estimated the rally cost $12.2 billion. “This is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend,” they write.

Dave DM, Friedson AI, McNichols D, Sabia JJ. The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19. September 2020. The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19

Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Between August 7 and August 16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 “super-spreader.”

This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19.

First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that
(i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and
(ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events.

Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell.

Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade.

Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates).

We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of approximately $12.2 billion.

Using similar methods, some of the same authors found no evidence of a superspreader event at Trump’s Tulsa rally.

Dave DM, Friedson AI, Matsuzawa K, McNichols D, Redpath C, Sabia JJ. Risk Aversion, Offsetting Community Effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an Indoor Political Rally. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series 2020;No. 27522. Risk Aversion, Offsetting Community Effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an Indoor Political Rally

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deems large indoor gatherings without social distancing the “highest risk” activity for COVID-19 contagion. On June 20, 2020, President Donald J. Trump held his first mass campaign rally following the US coronavirus outbreak at the indoor Bank of Oklahoma (BOK) arena.

In the weeks following the event, numerous high-profile national news outlets reported that the Trump rally was “more than likely” the cause of a coronavirus surge in Tulsa county based on time series data.

This study is the first to rigorously explore the impacts of this event on social distancing and COVID-19 spread.

First, using data from SafeGraph Inc, we show that while non-resident visits to census block groups hosting the Trump event grew by approximately 25 percent, there was no decline in net stay-at-home behavior in Tulsa county, reflecting important offsetting behavioral effects.

Then, using data on COVID-19 cases and deaths from the CDC and a synthetic control design, we find little evidence that COVID-19 grew more rapidly in Tulsa County, its border counties, or in the state of Oklahoma than each’s estimated counterfactual during the five-week post-treatment period we observe.

Difference-in-differences estimates further provide no evidence that COVID-19 rates grew faster in counties that drew relatively larger shares of residents to the event.

We conclude that offsetting risk-related behavioral responses to the rally — including voluntary closures of restaurants and bars in downtown Tulsa, increases in stay-at-home behavior, displacement of usual activities of weekend inflows, and smaller-than-expected crowd attendance — may be important mechanisms.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

We estimate that over 250,000 of the reported cases between August 2 and September 2 are due to the Sturgis Rally. Roughly 19 percent of the national cases during this timeframe.

Scientists analyzed the Sturgis rally and the rise of #covid19 cases after people went back home. They estimated it led to over 260,000 cases.

Assuming a cost of $46,000/case, the authors estimated the rally cost $12.2 billion. “This is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend,” they write.

Dave DM, Friedson AI, McNichols D, Sabia JJ. The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19. September 2020. The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19

Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Between August 7 and August 16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 “super-spreader.”

This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19.

First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that
(i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and
(ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events.

Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell.

Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade.

Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates).

We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of approximately $12.2 billion.

The Forgotten Numbers: A Closer Look at COVID-19 Non-Fatal Valuations
https://covid-19.iza.org/publications/dp13632/

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Here's all you need to know about the Russian vaccine.



MOSCOW, September 8. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin will not come to New York for the UN General Assembly session, as the epidemiological situation in the USA remains unstable, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told TASS on Tuesday.

"For obvious reasons, the president won’t come [to the UN General Assembly], like many other leaders. From the viewpoint of ensuring security, including epidemiological security, the security of the president, the head of state, the situation remains unstable, especially in such places as New York. So of course, a trip there is not advisable right now," Peskov said.

Earlier, Peskov said that Putin would address the 75th session of the UN General Assembly in a video format. …

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

I don't buy Sturgis study below.

Why? Really big effect. Makes me skeptical

One rule of thumb I teach is:

if effect size of a social phenomenon using noisy data is very large -- be wary

So was Sturgis harmless?

No.

But I doubt it caused 250,000 cases.

Thread

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

[OA] The impact of public-health measures to limit the spread of Coronavirus on training behaviours of individuals previously participating in resistance training: A cross-sectional survey study

Objectives: To determine how the onset of COVID-19, and the associated ‘lockdown’, affected RT behaviours, in addition to motivation, perceived effectiveness, enjoyment, and intent to continue, in those who regularly performed resistance training RT prior to the pandemic.

Design: Observational, cross-sectional.

Setting: Online surveys in multiple languages (English, Danish, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Slovakian, Swedish, and Japanese) distributed across social media platforms and through authors professional and personal networks.

Participants: Adults (n = 5389 after data cleaning; median age = 31 years [IQR = 25, 38]), who were previously engaged in RT prior to ‘lockdown’ (median prior RT experience = 7 years [IQR = 4, 12]).

Main outcomes: Self-reported RT behaviours including: continuation of RT during ‘lockdown’, location of RT, purchase of specific equipment for RT, method of training (e.g. alone, supervision etc.), full-body or split routine, types of training, repetition ranges, exercise number, set volumes (per exercise and muscle group), weekly frequency of training, perception of effort, whether training was planned/recorded, time of day, and training goals. Secondary outcomes included motivation, perceived effectiveness, enjoyment, and intent to continue RT.

Results: A majority of individuals (82.8%) maintained participation in some form of RT during- ‘lockdown’. Marginal probabilities from generalised linear models and generalised estimating equations of engaging in certain RT behaviours were largely similar from pre- to during- ‘lockdown’ (particularly numbers of exercises, sets per exercise or muscle group, and weekly frequencies).

There was reduced probability of training in privately owned gyms and increased probability of training at home; greater probability of training using a full-body routine; reduced probability of resistance machines use and increased probability of free weight and bodyweight training; reduced probability of moderate repetition ranges and greater probability of higher repetition ranges; and reduction in the perception of effort experienced during- training. Further, individuals were slightly less likely to plan or record training during- ‘lockdown’ and many changed their training goals as a result of ‘lockdown’.

Conclusions: Those engaged in RT prior to ‘lockdown’ appeared mostly able to maintain these behaviours with only slight adaptations in both the location and types of training performed. However, people employed less effort, and motivation, perceived effectiveness, enjoyment, and likelihood of continuing current training all appeared lower during- ‘lockdown’. These results have implications for strategies to maintain engagement in positive health behaviours such as RT during- restrictive pandemic-related public health measures.

Steele, James, Patroklos Androulakis-Korakakis, Luke Carlson, David Williams, Stuart Phillips, Dave Smith, Brad J. Schoenfeld, et al. 2020. “The Impact of Public-health Measures to Limit the Spread of Coronavirus on Training Behaviours of Individuals Previously Participating in Resistance Training: A Cross-sectional Survey Study.” SportRxiv. September 9. doi:10.31236/osf.io/b8s7e. https://osf.io/preprints/sportrxiv/b8s7e/

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

[OA] Safe Sexual Practices In The COVID-19 Pandemic Period

Highlights
· The risk of sexual transmission is still unanswered, and thus it is recommended to have sex with people close to yourself
· There is no evidence to support recommendations for sexual practices with casual partners.
· Solitary sexual practices like sexual fantasies, autoerotism, masturbation, and sex toys are recommended when the exposure of a partner is known, one (or both) partner is infected, and one partner is suspicious of infection.
· Wash your hands and any sex toys used, both before and after masturbating
· The use of media and bibliotherapy can be help isolated people to build sexual phantasies and autoerotic practices
· Avoid kisses, hugs, and physical proximity to those that do not live in the same household

Alves da Silva Lara L, Lima de Oliveira Marino FF, Abdo CH, et al. Safe sexual practices in the COVID-19 pandemic period [published online ahead of print, 2020 Sep 2]. Sex Med. 2020;10.1016/j.esxm.2020.08.006. doi:10.1016/j.esxm.2020.08.006 https://www.smoa.jsexmed.org/article/S2050-1161(20)30116-1/fulltext

 

[Villain]

Using similar methods, some of the same authors found no evidence of a superspreader event at Trump’s Tulsa rally.

Dave DM, Friedson AI, Matsuzawa K, McNichols D, Redpath C, Sabia JJ. Risk Aversion, Offsetting Community Effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an Indoor Political Rally. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series 2020;No. 27522. Risk Aversion, Offsetting Community Effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an Indoor Political Rally

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deems large indoor gatherings without social distancing the “highest risk” activity for COVID-19 contagion. On June 20, 2020, President Donald J. Trump held his first mass campaign rally following the US coronavirus outbreak at the indoor Bank of Oklahoma (BOK) arena.

In the weeks following the event, numerous high-profile national news outlets reported that the Trump rally was “more than likely” the cause of a coronavirus surge in Tulsa county based on time series data.

This study is the first to rigorously explore the impacts of this event on social distancing and COVID-19 spread.

First, using data from SafeGraph Inc, we show that while non-resident visits to census block groups hosting the Trump event grew by approximately 25 percent, there was no decline in net stay-at-home behavior in Tulsa county, reflecting important offsetting behavioral effects.

Then, using data on COVID-19 cases and deaths from the CDC and a synthetic control design, we find little evidence that COVID-19 grew more rapidly in Tulsa County, its border counties, or in the state of Oklahoma than each’s estimated counterfactual during the five-week post-treatment period we observe.

Difference-in-differences estimates further provide no evidence that COVID-19 rates grew faster in counties that drew relatively larger shares of residents to the event.

We conclude that offsetting risk-related behavioral responses to the rally — including voluntary closures of restaurants and bars in downtown Tulsa, increases in stay-at-home behavior, displacement of usual activities of weekend inflows, and smaller-than-expected crowd attendance — may be important mechanisms.

Such complete bullshit.
Cringeworthy Study Debunked: There Was No 'Sturgis Superspreader' COVID-19 Event

 

[dd340]

Such complete bullshit.
Cringeworthy Study Debunked: There Was No 'Sturgis Superspreader' COVID-19 Event

US daily COVID infection rates have dropped 29% since the Sturgis rally ended on August 16 from 52,248 down to 37,248 as of Sept 9, based on a 7 day average.
I’m still looking for those 250,000 cases you promised.

 

[Villain]

US daily COVID infection rates have dropped 29% since the Sturgis rally ended on August 16 from 52,248 down to 37,248 as of Sept 9, based on a 7 day average.
I’m still looking for those 250,000 cases you promised.

Think you meant to quote Scally

 

[dd340]

Think you meant to quote Scally

Correct, sorry about that.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

We are writing to offer some expert advice: Don’t trust all experts, particularly those expounding in fields far afield from their area of expertise.

History is littered with cautionary examples. There was Linus Pauling, the Nobel Prize-winning chemist who shilled vitamin C for colds and just about everything else. William Shockley, a physicist who was awarded a Nobel for his work on transistors, promoted frightening positions on eugenics. The biochemist Kary Mullis, who won a Nobel in 1993 for developing the polymerase chain reaction technique now used to diagnose COVID-19, promoted the idea that AIDS was caused not by HIV but by use of recreational and anti-HIV drugs.

Now we have our former colleague Dr. Scott Atlas, a past chief of neuroradiology at the Stanford University School of Medicine and current senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, providing bad epidemiological advice to President Trump and his White House coronavirus task force.

Having an onsite neuroradiologist would be extremely helpful if the president were concerned about, say, mini-strokes. As epidemiologists, we would not dare to offer advice in that realm. We might even walk across campus to consult Atlas. And we wouldn’t object to Atlas’ advice on the pandemic if it were based on reliable science. But the guidance he is giving to the White House does not reflect sound epidemiological reasoning, nor is it consistent with the current body of scientific knowledge about COVID-19.

 

[dd340]

We are writing to offer some expert advice: Don’t trust all experts, particularly those expounding in fields far afield from their area of expertise.

History is littered with cautionary examples. There was Linus Pauling, the Nobel Prize-winning chemist who shilled vitamin C for colds and just about everything else. William Shockley, a physicist who was awarded a Nobel for his work on transistors, promoted frightening positions on eugenics. The biochemist Kary Mullis, who won a Nobel in 1993 for developing the polymerase chain reaction technique now used to diagnose COVID-19, promoted the idea that AIDS was caused not by HIV but by use of recreational and anti-HIV drugs.

Now we have our former colleague Dr. Scott Atlas, a past chief of neuroradiology at the Stanford University School of Medicine and current senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, providing bad epidemiological advice to President Trump and his White House coronavirus task force.

Having an onsite neuroradiologist would be extremely helpful if the president were concerned about, say, mini-strokes. As epidemiologists, we would not dare to offer advice in that realm. We might even walk across campus to consult Atlas. And we wouldn’t object to Atlas’ advice on the pandemic if it were based on reliable science. But the guidance he is giving to the White House does not reflect sound epidemiological reasoning, nor is it consistent with the current body of scientific knowledge about COVID-19.

Using epidemiological models developed by the world renowned Imperial College predicted the following for Sweden due to their lack of lockdown;
In early April they predicted that if Sweden ignored the European experts and continued on their current path:
96,000 dead by end of June
40,000 dead by May 1
If they changed path immediately and instituted lockdowns:
30,000 dead by end of June

As we all know Sweden did not lockdown and did continue of their same path.
Lets see how close the Imperial College was in predicting the death toll in Sweden:
Tolls deaths due to COVID as of September 10:
5843.
So they were just shy by 84,000 deaths. Thank god for the experts.

Imperial College Model Applied to Sweden Yields Preposterous Results

 

[Villain]

@Michael Scally MD Wildfire Smoke and COVID-19 | CDC

LMFAO, cloth masks won’t protect you from smoke or particles but will stop the spread of Covid-19??? Give me a damn break.

 

[Villain]

Yale prof: ‘Evidence overwhelming’ for fighting COVID with hydroxychloroquine

 

[Villain]

Opinion | The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns