Climate Change

[Michael Scally MD]

Taleb & Climate Change - https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIUUthSzJqUnRPbDg/edit

9 CLIMATE CHANGE AND FRAGILITY POLICY

9.1 Skepticism and Precaution

What is missed by the discussion of "skepticism" is that its impact on decisions should lead to increased, not decreased conservatism in the presence of ruin. As we show intuitively in Figure 6 and mathematically in Appendix C, more skepticism about models implies more uncertainty about the tails, which necessitates more precaution about newly implemented techniques, or larger size of exposures. Nature might not be smart, but it has thinner left tail.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Kokic P, Crimp S, Howden M. A probabilistic analysis of human influence on recent record global mean temperature changes. Climate Risk Management 2014;3:1-12. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096314000163

December 2013 was the 346th consecutive month where global land and ocean average surface temperature exceeded the 20th century monthly average, with February 1985 the last time mean temperature fell below this value.

Even given these and other extraordinary statistics, public acceptance of human induced climate change and confidence in the supporting science has declined since 2007.

The degree of uncertainty as to whether observed climate changes are due to human activity or are part of natural systems fluctuations remains a major stumbling block to effective adaptation action and risk management.

Previous approaches to attribute change include qualitative expert-assessment approaches such as used in IPCC reports and use of ‘fingerprinting’ methods based on global climate models.

Here we develop an alternative approach which provides a rigorous probabilistic statistical assessment of the link between observed climate changes and human activities in a way that can inform formal climate risk assessment.

We construct and validate a time series model of anomalous global temperatures to June 2010, using rates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as other causal factors including solar radiation, volcanic forcing and the El Niño Southern Oscillation.

When the effect of GHGs is removed, bootstrap simulation of the model reveals that there is less than a one in one hundred thousand chance of observing an unbroken sequence of 304 months (our analysis extends to June 2010) with mean surface temperature exceeding the 20th century average.

We also show that one would expect a far greater number of short periods of falling global temperatures (as observed since 1998) if climate change was not occurring.

This approach to assessing probabilities of human influence on global temperature could be transferred to other climate variables and extremes allowing enhanced formal risk assessment of climate change.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

10 new climate change controversies – now that the cause is settled
http://roadtoparis.info/top-list/10-climate-change-controversies-now-that-cause-settled/

 

[Michael Scally MD]

The crisis of rising sea levels
Water’s Edge
http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/waters-edge-the-crisis-of-rising-sea-levels/

Part 1: A Reuters analysis finds that flooding is increasing along much of the nation’s coastline, forcing many communities into costly, controversial struggles with a relentless foe.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Limits to Growth is a study about the future of our planet. On behalf of the Club of Rome, Donnella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers and their team worked on systems analysis at Jay W. Forrester’s institute at MIT.

They created a computing model which took into account the relations between various global developments and produced computer simulations for alternative scenarios.

Part of the modelling were different amounts of possibly available resources, different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control or environmental protection.

12 million copies were distributed in 37 languages.

Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse.
http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ight-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse

[Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B007EDYJDA]

The 1972 book Limits to Growth, which predicted our civilisation would probably collapse some time this century, has been criticised as doomsday fantasy since it was published.

Back in 2002, self-styled environmental expert Bjorn Lomborg consigned it to the “dustbin of history”.

It doesn’t belong there.

Research from the University of Melbourne has found the book’s forecasts are accurate, 40 years on. http://www.sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/files/mssi/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf

If we continue to track in line with the book’s scenario, expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Greenhouse gas levels rising at fastest rate since 1984
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29115845

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Foster GL, Rohling EJ. Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2013;110(4):1209-14. http://www.pnas.org/content/110/4/1209.full

On 10^3- to 10^6-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system.

Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO2 and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales.

This strongly supports the dominant role of CO2 in determining Earth’s climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role.

The relationship between CO2 and sea level we describe portrays the “likely” (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries.

Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level.

For instance, with CO2 stabilized at 400–450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted “acceptable warming” of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present.

Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO2 should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Glacial Death Watch: Why an Ice Shelf Snapped in 2002 and What's Coming Next

Grounding zones, where ice sheets transition between resting on bedrock to full floatation, help regulate ice flow. Exposure of the sea floor by the 2002 Larsen-B Ice Shelf collapse allowed detailed morphologic mapping and sampling of the embayment sea floor.

Marine geophysical data collected in 2006 reveal a large, arcuate, complex grounding zone sediment system at the front of Crane Fjord. Radiocarbon-constrained chronologies from marine sediment cores indicate loss of ice contact with the bed at this site about 12,000 years ago.

Previous studies and morphologic mapping of the fjord suggest that the Crane Glacier grounding zone was well within the fjord before 2002 and did not retreat further until after the ice shelf collapse.

This implies that the 2002 Larsen-B Ice Shelf collapse likely was a response to surface warming rather than to grounding zone instability, strengthening the idea that surface processes controlled the disintegration of the Larsen Ice Shelf.

Rebesco M, Domack E, Zgur F, et al. Boundary condition of grounding lines prior to collapse, Larsen-B Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Science 2014;345(6202):1354-8. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/345/6202/1354.abstract

Grounding zones, where ice sheets transition between resting on bedrock to full floatation, help regulate ice flow. Exposure of the sea floor by the 2002 Larsen-B Ice Shelf collapse allowed detailed morphologic mapping and sampling of the embayment sea floor.

Marine geophysical data collected in 2006 reveal a large, arcuate, complex grounding zone sediment system at the front of Crane Fjord. Radiocarbon-constrained chronologies from marine sediment cores indicate loss of ice contact with the bed at this site about 12,000 years ago.

Previous studies and morphologic mapping of the fjord suggest that the Crane Glacier grounding zone was well within the fjord before 2002 and did not retreat further until after the ice shelf collapse.

This implies that the 2002 Larsen-B Ice Shelf collapse likely was a response to surface warming rather than to grounding zone instability, strengthening the idea that surface processes controlled the disintegration of the Larsen Ice Shelf.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Sun and Wind Alter German Landscape, Leaving Utilities Behind
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/14/s...eaving-utilities-behind.html?ref=science&_r=0

Germany’s relentless push into renewable energy has implications far beyond its shores. By creating huge demand for wind turbines and especially for solar panels, it has helped lure big Chinese manufacturers into the market, and that combination is driving down costs faster than almost anyone thought possible just a few years ago.

Electric utility executives all over the world are watching nervously as technologies they once dismissed as irrelevant begin to threaten their long-established business plans. Fights are erupting across the United States over the future rules for renewable power. Many poor countries, once intent on building coal-fired power plants to bring electricity to their people, are discussing whether they might leapfrog the fossil age and build clean grids from the outset.

A reckoning is at hand, and nowhere is that clearer than in Germany. Even as the country sets records nearly every month for renewable power production, the changes have devastated its utility companies, whose profits from power generation have collapsed.

A similar pattern may well play out in other countries that are pursuing ambitious plans for renewable energy. Some American states, impatient with legislative gridlock in Washington, have set aggressive goals of their own, aiming for 20 or 30 percent renewable energy as soon as 2020.

The word the Germans use for their plan is starting to make its way into conversations elsewhere: energiewende, the energy transition. Worldwide, Germany is being held up as a model, cited by environmental activists as proof that a transformation of the global energy system is possible.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Moral Collapse in a Warming World

In his definitive book A Perfect Moral Storm, ethicist Stephen Gardiner argues that the way forward in a climate-changed world is so difficult in part because we “do not yet have a good understanding of many of the ethical issues at stake in global-warming policy.”

We remain confused about such vital questions as who should take responsibility for the current condition, how to preserve equity between generations, and how best to think about our responsibility toward nonhuman animals.

The resistance of governments to taking action, attempts by various players to throw sand in the eyes of the public, and specious arguments used to justify an unwillingness to do what is necessary all add to our moral bafflement.

Hamilton C. Moral Collapse in a Warming World. Ethics & International Affairs 2014;28(03):335-42. http://goo.gl/fDQxPf

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Terrifying before and after images of the Kashmir floods
http://qz.com/265410/terrifying-before-and-after-images-of-kashmir-floods/

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Your contribution to climate change: see your impact on the Earth's vital signs
http://www.theguardian.com/vital-si...-signs-waste-wildfires-interactive?CMP=twt_gu

As California suffers its worst drought in recent history, flooding has driven thousands from their homes in India and Pakistan, and Pacific islanders watch the ocean slowly invade their shores.

While it’s impossible to say exactly which events are caused by climate change, it’s clearer than ever that the health of our planet affects us all – and that our collective actions, likewise, have an ‘unequivocal’ impact on the Earth. But what can we, as individuals, do?

The first step to answering that question is taking stock of where we are now. We’ve collected a few key indicators of the Earth’s health – its vital signs – into this dashboard. View up-to-date snapshots of the effects your country and the human race are having on our environment.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Disruption


‘When it comes to climate change, why do we do so little when we know so much?’

Through a relentless investigation to find the answer, Disruption takes an unflinching look at the devastating consequences of our inaction.

The exploration lays bare the terrifying science, the shattered political process, the unrelenting industry special interests and the civic stasis that have brought us to this social, moral and ecological crossroads.The film also takes us behind-the-scenes of the efforts to organize the largest climate rally in the history of the planet during the UN world climate summit.

This is the story of our unique moment in history. We are living through an age of tipping points and rapid social and planetary change. We’re the first generation to feel the impacts of climate disruption, and the last generation that can do something about it. The film enlarges the issue beyond climate impacts and makes a compelling call for bold action that is strong enough to tip the balance to build a clean energy future.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

[For The Denialists - I find it amusing how the WSJ "selects" PA articles.]

Climate Science Is Not Settled
http://online.wsj.com/articles/climate-science-is-not-settled-1411143565

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

The New Climate Economy Report 2014
http://newclimateeconomy.report/

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Errors and Emissions
Could Fighting Global Warming Be Cheap and Free?
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/19/o...ighting-global-warming-be-cheap-and-free.html

A big study by a blue-ribbon international group, the New Climate Economy Project [http://newclimateeconomy.report/], and a working paper from the International Monetary Fund [http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2014/09/17/carbon-pricing-good-for-you-good-for-the-planet/]. Both claim that strong measures to limit carbon emissions would have hardly any negative effect on economic growth, and might actually lead to faster growth. This may sound too good to be true, but it isn’t. These are serious, careful analyses.

 

[kawilt]

The New Climate Economy Report 2014
http://newclimateeconomy.report/

If we think that the "Patriot Act" gave the government more power and "diluted" whatever rights we thought we had left, just wait till they pass the "Love Your Planet act"