Climate Change

Collapsing Greenland glacier could raise sea levels by half a metre, say scientists
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...ise-sea-levels-by-half-a-metre-say-scientists


Mouginot J, Rignot E, Scheuchl B, et al. Fast retreat of Zachariæ Isstrøm, northeast Greenland. Science. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/11/11/science.aac7111.abstract


After 8 years of decay of its ice shelf, Zachariæ Isstrøm, a major glacier of northeast Greenland that holds a 0.5-meter sea-level rise equivalent, entered a phase of accelerated retreat in fall 2012.

The acceleration rate of its ice velocity tripled, melting of its residual ice shelf and thinning of its grounded portion doubled, and calving is now occurring at its grounding line.

WARMER AIR AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES HAVE CAUSED THE GLACIER TO DETACH FROM A STABILIZING SILL AND RETREAT RAPIDLY ALONG A DOWNWARD-SLOPING, MARINE-BASED BED.

Its equal-ice-volume neighbor, Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, is also melting rapidly but retreating slowly along an upward-sloping bed.

THE DESTABILIZATION OF THIS MARINE-BASED SECTOR WILL INCREASE SEA-LEVEL RISE FROM THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET FOR DECADES TO COME.
 
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The Secrets in Greenland’s Ice Sheets
By studying the largest glaciers on earth, scientists hope to determine whether we’ll have time to respond to climate change or whether it’s already too late.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/magazine/the-secrets-in-greenlands-ice-sheets.html

How soon could that happen? When it comes to understanding the implications of ice-sheet collapse, the speed of that breakdown is everything. It could mean sea levels that rise slowly and steadily, perhaps a foot or two per century, which might allow coastal communities to adapt and adjust. Or it could mean levels that rise at an accelerating pace, perhaps five feet or more per century — forcing the evacuation of the earth’s great coastal cities and producing millions of refugees and almost unimaginable financial costs. The difference between slowly and rapidly is a crucial distinction that one scientist recently described to me as ‘‘the trillion-dollar question.’’



Sea-level rise has three primary causes. The first is that at warmer temperatures, water expands — meaning oceans literally get bigger. The second is that the world’s mountain glaciers, numbering around 200,000 and located everywhere from Argentina to Alaska, are rapidly melting and draining to the seas. The third is that the ice sheets are shedding meltwater and icebergs at an accelerating rate.
 
Climate scientists to be grilled by congressional investigators, but their e-mails are still off-limits
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ators-but-their-e-mails-are-still-off-limits/

Scientists and top officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have agreed to start interviews akin to depositions this week with House investigators, who are demanding to know their internal deliberations on a groundbreaking climate change study.

But the interviews may not be enough to placate the chairman of the House science committee, a global warming skeptic who last week stepped up the pressure on the Commerce Department to comply with his subpoena for e-mails that NOAA has refused to turn over.

Chairman Lamar Smith (R-Tex.) wants thousands of e-mails among scientists and NOAA’s staff of political appointees that he thinks will show that the researchers had something to hide when they refuted claims that global warming had “paused” or slowed over the past decade.
 
Nodding donkeys
Some oil majors are still ducking the issue of global warming
http://www.economist.com/news/busin...-ducking-issue-global-warming-nodding-donkeys

FEW symbols of the oil industry are as familiar as the pumpjack, or “nodding donkey.” The technology is little changed since it was invented in 1925, and in some mature onshore fields it serves as a constant reminder of the world’s insatiable thirst for oil—until recently, about one-sixth of American crude came from the tiny “stripper” wells that it usually pumps. It is also a metaphor for how oil-company bosses have responded to the risks of climate change. Every so often they put their heads up and survey the future, only to bury them again. In the run-up to climate-change negotiations in Paris, starting at the end of this month, the industry’s willingness to stare the issue squarely in the eye is again under scrutiny.

In the 1990s oilmen responded to criticism from environmentalists by launching campaigns to encourage debate about climate change, and by increasing their investment in renewable energy. Under John (now Lord) Browne, BP of Britain declared itself to be moving “Beyond Petroleum”. However, steadily rising crude-oil prices after the global financial crisis led firms to scale back their loss-making green-energy businesses, while continuing to pour money into hydrocarbons (see chart).

More recently a dramatic fall in oil prices has forced them to start cutting some big exploration projects. And as the Paris summit has approached, ambitious pledges by more than 150 countries to cut greenhouse-gas emissions have taken oil bosses by surprise—even if the pledges are likely to fall short of the target of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

If these commitments were to translate into significant moves to limit global warming, this would challenge a view still held by oilmen on both sides of the Atlantic that demand for fossil fuels will keep growing strongly for the foreseeable future. Exxon Mobil, the world’s biggest publicly traded oil company, argues that fossil fuels will still account for three-quarters of primary energy demand even in 2040, only slightly below their current share. But the International Energy Agency (IEA), a body that represents oil-consuming countries, says that to keep global warming to two degrees, fossil fuels would need to fall to 60% of the energy mix by 2040. The IEA sees no mass abandonment of hydrocarbons, but nonetheless, its executive director, Fatih Birol, said on November 10th that, “There should be no energy company in the world [which] believes that climate policies will not affect their business.”

Some oil majors are going on the attack, realising the reputational shambles they face if they are considered foot-draggers on climate change. In October the heads of ten big oil and gas companies (none of them from the United States) officially threw their weight behind the “general ambition” to meet the two-degree goal. Many are cleaning up their energy portfolios by investing more heavily in producing natural gas, which creates less carbon dioxide than oil when burned, for each unit of energy liberated. Shell, an Anglo-Dutch major, is doing so by buying BG, a British firm with big gas reserves. “You can argue that Big Oil is becoming Big Gas,” says Occo Roelofsen of McKinsey, a consulting firm. Others are going in for renewables. Total of France has a majority stake in SunPower, one of the world’s biggest solar-power firms. Eldar Saetre, the boss of Statoil, Norway’s state-run oil company, says that in 15 years there may be more opportunities outside oil and gas than within.

BP executives, also favouring a gassier future, have been modelling potential “demand destruction” scenarios based on the climate pledges made in the run-up to Paris. BP has become one of the first majors to acknowledge the risk that the industry is spending money developing reserves that it may never tap. Spencer Dale, its chief economist (and formerly of the Bank of England), recently estimated that the world had almost three times the reserves of oil, gas and coal that it could burn if it were to hit the two-degree goal.

Yet oilmen still play down the risk that oil and gas assets will be abandoned en masse, not least because of the still-growing demand in the developing world. Collectively the industry is betting on three ways to stay in the fossil-fuel business and yet emit less carbon dioxide. First, executives see gas increasingly substituting for dirtier coal in the power-generation business. Second, they expect energy efficiency to keep improving, allowing drivers, for example, to travel longer on each tank of petrol. Third, they intend to reduce the considerable amount of natural gas (composed mostly of methane, an even more potent “greenhouse gas” than carbon dioxide) that leaks out of their wells and processing plants.

Plenty of oil firms (Exxon among them) are also calling for governments to enact a “carbon tax” on emitters of greenhouse gases. Their critics argue that this is less altruistic than it appears. For one thing, such a tax would hurt the coal industry especially, thereby boosting the oil firms’ gas businesses. And governments, especially in the developing world, where fossil-fuel demand is still surging, may find such a tax politically impossible anyway; the oilmen are calling for it, opponents say, in the knowledge that such countries will never introduce it.

In the absence of a global carbon tax or some other effective measure, however, the risk for the oilmen is that everyone from environmentalists to politicians will simply find other ways to make them pay for global warming. On November 4th New York’s attorney-general, Eric Schneiderman, subpoenaed documents from Exxon to investigate how much it has known since the 1970s about the effects of fossil fuels on the climate. Exxon is reportedly being investigated under the Martin Act, dating back to 1921, which gives prosecutors wide-ranging powers to investigate securities fraud. Exxon says it has long disclosed information about the risks to its business from climate change, and from action to prevent it, in reports to its shareholders. But the firm’s run-in with the New York justice department may be a portent of what is to come.

Another worry for oil executives is pressure from investors spooked by the financial risks of climate change. Policymakers, such as Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, talk about the possibility of many oilfields turning into “stranded assets”, or “unburnable carbon”, if governments get serious about climate-change action. Anthony Hobley of Carbon Tracker, a climate-advisory firm, says that if the Paris pledges are taken at all seriously, the oil and gas industry may become “ex-growth”. Oil executives dispute that. But shareholders, if motivated, could force the industry to shrink just by limiting the funds they provide for new oil discoveries.

Curiously, the present situation may provide a foretaste of this—though cyclically, because of falling oil prices, rather than structurally, because of rising temperatures. Faced with a world awash in crude, oil majors are abandoning high-cost reserves in the Arctic, Canada, North Sea and Gulf of Mexico. One oil executive ruefully calls it a “practice run” for the day in the distant future when fears of global warming, or the emergence of cheap, clean alternative technologies, mean that demand for fossil fuels starts to wane.
 
Global temperatures set to reach 1 °C marker for first time
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/release/archive/2015/one-degree?


CO2 levels hit record high for 30th year in a row –WMO
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/09/climatechange-carbon-idUSL8N1314F720151109


Warming set to breach 1C threshold
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-34763036


Clean energy is the key to a successful climate deal in Paris, says top scientist
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...sful-climate-deal-in-paris-says-top-scientist

In July, Schellnhuber told a science conference in Paris that the world needed “an induced implosion of the carbon economy over the next 20-30 years. Otherwise we have no chance of avoiding dangerous, perhaps disastrous, climate change.” http://www.theguardian.com/environm...-to-avoid-climate-disaster-says-top-scientist

“The avalanche will start because ultimately nothing can compete with renewables,” he told the Guardian. “If you invest at [large] scale, inevitably we will end up with much cheaper, much more reliable, much safer technologies in the energy system: wind, solar, biomass, tidal, hydropower. It is really a no-brainer, if you take away all the ideological debris and lobbying.”


Earth's climate entering new 'permanent reality' as CO2 hits new high
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...ng-new-permanent-reality-as-co2-hits-new-high
 
Why a Climate Deal Is the Best Hope for Peace
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/why-a-climate-deal-is-the-best-hope-for-peace

By Jason Box and Naomi Klein

Soon after the horrific terror attacks in Paris, last Friday, our phones filled with messages from friends and colleagues: “So are they going to cancel the Paris climate summit?” “The drums of war are beating. Count on climate change being drowned out.” The assumption is reasonable enough. While many politicians pay lip service to the existential urgency of the climate crisis, as soon as another more immediate crisis rears its head—war, a market shock, an epidemic—climate reliably falls off the political map.

After the attacks, the French government stated that the COP21 climate summit would begin as scheduled at the end of November. Yet the police have just barred the huge planned marches and protests, effectively silencing the voices of people who are directly affected by these high-level talks. And it’s hard to see how sea-level rise and parched farmland—tough media sells at the best of times—will have a hope of competing with rapid military escalation and calls for fortressed borders.

All of this is perfectly understandable. When our safety feels threatened, it’s difficult to think of anything else. Major shocks like the Paris attacks are awfully good at changing the subject. But what if we decided to not let it happen? What if, instead of changing the subject, we deepened the discussion of climate change and expanded the range of solutions, which are fundamental for real human security? What if, instead of being pushed aside in the name of war, climate action took center stage as the planet’s best hope for peace?

The connection between warming temperatures and the cycle of Syrian violence is, by now, uncontroversial. As Secretary of State John Kerry said in Virginia, this month, “It’s not a coincidence that, immediately prior to the civil war in Syria, the country experienced its worst drought on record. As many as 1.5 million people migrated from Syria’s farms to its cities, intensifying the political unrest that was just beginning to roil and boil in the region.”

As Kerry went on to note, many factors contributed to Syria’s instability. The severe drought was one, but so were the repressive practices of a brutal dictator and the rise of a particular strain of religious extremism. Another big factor was the invasion of Iraq, a decade ago. And since that war—like so many before it—was inextricable from the West’s thirst for Iraqi oil (warming be damned), that fateful decision in turn became difficult to separate from climate change. ISIS, which has taken responsibility for the attacks in Paris, found fertile ground in this volatile context of too much oil and too little water.

If we acknowledge that the instability emanating from the Middle East has these roots, it makes little sense to allow the Paris attacks to minimize our already inadequate climate commitments. Rather, this tragedy should inspire the opposite reaction: an urgent push to lower emissions as rapidly and deeply as possible, including strong support for developing countries to leapfrog to renewable energy, creating much-needed jobs and economic opportunities in the process. That kind of bold climate transition is our only hope of preventing a future in which, as a recent paper in the journal Nature Climate Change put it, large areas of the Middle East will, by the end of the century, “experience temperature levels that are intolerable to humans.”

But even this is not enough. The deepest emission reductions can only prevent climate change from getting far worse. They can’t stop the warming that has already arrived, nor the warming that is locked in as a result of the fossil fuels we have already burned. So there is a critical piece missing from our climate conversation: the need to quickly lower atmospheric CO2 levels from the current four hundred parts per million to the upper limit of what is not considered dangerous: three hundred and fifty parts per million.

The implications of a failure to bring carbon down to safer levels go well beyond amplifying catastrophes like Syria’s historic drought. The last time atmospheric CO2 was this high, global sea levels were at least six metres higher. We find ourselves confronted with ice-sheet disintegration that, in some susceptible areas, already appears unstoppable. In the currently overloaded CO2 climate, it’s just a matter of time until hundreds of millions of people will be displaced from coastal regions, their agricultural lands and groundwater destroyed by saltwater intrusion from sea rise. Among the most vulnerable areas are broad swaths of South and Southeast Asia—which include some of the world’s biggest cities, from Shanghai to Jakarta—along with a number of coastal African and Latin American countries, such as Nigeria, Brazil, and Egypt.

A climate summit taking place against the backdrop of climate-fuelled violence and migration can only be relevant if its central goal is the creation of conditions for lasting peace. That would mean making legally enforceable commitments to leave the vast majority of known fossil-fuel reserves in the ground. It would also mean delivering real financing to developing countries to cope with the impacts of climate change, and recognizing the full rights of climate migrants to move to safer ground. A strong climate-peace agreement would also include a program to plant vast numbers of native-species trees in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, to draw down atmospheric CO2, reduce desertification, and promote cooler and moister climates. Tree planting alone is not enough to lower CO2 to safe levels, but it could help people stay on their land and protect sustainable livelihoods.

We knew that the Paris summit wasn’t going to achieve all of this. But just days ago, bold collective action on climate seemed within reach: the climate movement was accelerating, winning tangible victories against pipelines and Arctic drilling; governments were strengthening their targets, and some were even starting to stand up to fossil-fuel companies.

Enough pressure existed, it seemed, to achieve the main goals of the conference: an enforceable and binding international treaty to ratchet down carbon emissions once and for all. But the movement believed that keeping the pressure up during the summit would be critical. That just got a lot harder.

The last time there was this much climate momentum was in 2008, when Europe was leading a renewable-energy revolution and Barack Obama was pledging, as he accepted the Democratic nomination, that his election would be “the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.” Then came the full reverberations of the financial crisis. By the time the world met at the Copenhagen climate-change conference, at the end of 2009, global attention had already shifted away from climate to bank bailouts, and the deal was widely considered to be a disaster. In the years that followed, support for renewables was slashed across southern Europe, ambitions dwindled, and pledges of climate financing for the developing world virtually disappeared. Never mind that a decisive response to the climate crisis, grounded in big investments in renewables, efficiency, and public transit, could well have created enough jobs to undercut the discredited logic of economic austerity.

We cannot afford to allow this story to be repeated, this time with terror changing the subject. To the contrary, as the author and energy expert Michael T. Klare argued weeks before the attacks, Paris “should be considered not just a climate summit but a peace conference—perhaps the most significant peace convocation in history.” But it can only do that if the agreement builds a carbon-safe economy fast enough to tangibly improve lives in the here and now. We are finally starting to recognize that climate change leads to wars and economic ruin. It’s time to recognize that intelligent climate policy is fundamental to lasting peace and economic justice.
 
Ideological polarization around environmental issues—especially climate change—have increased in the last 20 years. This polarization has led to public uncertainty, and in some cases, policy stalemate.

Much attention has been given to understanding individual attitudes, but much less to the larger organizational and financial roots of polarization.

This gap is due to prior difficulties in gathering and analyzing quantitative data about these complex and furtive processes.

This paper uses comprehensive text and network data to show how corporate funding influences the production and actual thematic content of polarization efforts.

It highlights the important influence of private funding in public knowledge and politics, and provides researchers a methodological model for future studies that blend large-scale textual discourse with social networks.

Farrell J. Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/11/18/1509433112.abstract

Drawing on large-scale computational data and methods, this research demonstrates how polarization efforts are influenced by a patterned network of political and financial actors.

These dynamics, which have been notoriously difficult to quantify, are illustrated here with a computational analysis of climate change politics in the United States.

The comprehensive data include all individual and organizational actors in the climate change countermovement (164 organizations), as well as all written and verbal texts produced by this network between 1993–2013 (40,785 texts, more than 39 million words).

Two main findings emerge.

First, that organizations with corporate funding were more likely to have written and disseminated texts meant to polarize the climate change issue.

Second, and more importantly, that corporate funding influences the actual thematic content of these polarization efforts, and the discursive prevalence of that thematic content over time.

These findings provide new, and comprehensive, confirmation of dynamics long thought to be at the root of climate change politics and discourse.

Beyond the specifics of climate change, this paper has important implications for understanding ideological polarization more generally, and the increasing role of private funding in determining why certain polarizing themes are created and amplified.

Lastly, the paper suggests that future studies build on the novel approach taken here that integrates large-scale textual analysis with social networks.
 
Study drives a sixth nail in the global warming ‘pause’ myth
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...a-sixth-nail-in-the-global-warming-pause-myth

The good news is that the favorite myths from climate-change skeptics have taken a beating this year. Perhaps the best-known myth is the so-called “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. This year, six individual studies have looked into this and found it incorrect. I have co-authored one of the studies, and I’ve written about some of the others here and here.

Well just today, http://10.0.4.14/srep16784 was published by Stephan Lewandowsky, James Risbey, and Naomi Oreskes that comes to the same conclusion. The paper is titled, “On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming”. The authors assess the magnitude and significance of all possible warming trends during the past 30 years. They found that looking back in time, the current definition of a “pause” in warming, as it is used in the literature, would have been used for more than one-third of the time, even though temperatures during the past 30 years increased by 1.1°F (0.6°C).

The authors included 40 peer-reviewed studies that reported on the so-called hiatus or pause, and found no consistent definition among those studies. Then, the authors used these same 40 papers and asked whether the so-called “hiatus” was unusual in the time records. They found it wasn’t.
 
Lewandowsky S, Risbey JS, Oreskes N. On the definition and identifiability of the alleged “hiatus” in global warming. Scientific Reports 2015;5:16784. http://www.nature.com/articles/srep16784

Recent public debate and the scientific literature have frequently cited a “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. Yet, multiple sources of evidence show that climate change continues unabated, raising questions about the status of the “hiatus”. To examine whether the notion of a “hiatus” is justified by the available data, we first document that there are multiple definitions of the “hiatus” in the literature, with its presumed onset spanning a decade. For each of these definitions we compare the associated temperature trend against trends of equivalent length in the entire record of modern global warming. The analysis shows that the “hiatus” trends are encompassed within the overall distribution of observed trends. We next assess the magnitude and significance of all possible trends up to 25 years duration looking backwards from each year over the past 30 years. At every year during the past 30 years, the immediately preceding warming trend was always significant when 17 years (or more) were included in the calculation, alleged “hiatus” periods notwithstanding. If current definitions of the “pause” used in the literature are applied to the historical record, then the climate system “paused” for more than 1/3 of the period during which temperatures rose 0.6 K.
 
Climate scientist Professor Kevin Anderson spoke to Manchester Climate Monthly on Monday 23rd November. In the two separate videos that follow, you can see him outlining what is at stake in the upcoming Paris climate conference – the nature of the individual nations’ pledges (INDCs) and how they actually add up to 3 or 4 degrees of warming, not the 2.7 that’s being widely quoted.

He believes there is still a (very) slender chance that we can keep warming below two degrees, but it will require a much larger effort than anything currently on the table, and within months the option will be gone.

He looks at the heroic assumptions involved in “Bio-energy Carbon Capture and Storage” before turning to the history of the “two degrees” claim and what it means, the question of ‘what is to be done’, of hope, responsibility and much else.

As ever, Kevin’s answers are comprehensive, carefully modulated around what is fact and what is interpretation, and compelling.



 
Standoff over government climate study provokes national uproar by scientists
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...okes-national-uproar-by-scientists/?tid=sm_tw

A top House lawmaker’s confrontation with government researchers over a groundbreaking climate change study is provoking a national backlash from scientists, who say his campaign represents the most serious threat Congress has posed to scientific freedom.

Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Tex.), chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, has subpoenaed scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and demanded that they turn over internal e-mails related to their research. Their findings contradicted earlier work showing that global warming had paused, and Smith, a climate change skeptic, has accused them of altering global temperature data and rushing to publish their research in the June issue of the journal Science.

So far, NOAA officials have resisted Smith’s demands, and the showdown has escalated.

The lawmaker has threatened to subpoena Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker, while scientists have rallied in solidarity with the researchers.

On Tuesday, seven scientific organizations representing hundreds of thousands of scientists sent an unsparing letter to Smith, warning that his efforts are “establishing a practice of inquests” that will have a chilling effect.

“The repercussions of the committee’s actions could go well beyond climate science, setting a precedent to question other topics such as genetically modified organisms and vaccines that have controversial regulatory and policy implications,” the letter said.

The lead signatory was the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the country’s oldest and largest general scientific society. Other signers include the American Chemical Society and the American Geophysical Union. The last of several deadlines has now passed for the government to turn over the documents. A legislative aide at the Science Committee said this week that Smith is open to discussions with NOAA to resolve the conflict.

After NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan again balked at the demands on Friday, the aide said the committee still hopes to negotiate with the agency rather than seek contempt charges. In a letter to Smith, Sullivan defended her agency’s work, saying her staff is not influenced by political interference.

“I have not or will not allow anyone to manipulate the science or coerce the scientists who work for me,” she wrote.

The committee’s top Democrat, Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Tex.) has called Smith’s investigation a “partisan witch hunt.”

At the center of the feud is a report that appeared in the June 4 online edition of Science, a peer-reviewed journal. The NOAA scientists cited improved, more accurate measurements of global temperatures on land and sea to refute the notion of a warming hiatus, striking at the heart of an argument by climate change skeptics.

NOAA manages one of the world’s most significant archives of oceanic, atmospheric and geophysical data, and its global temperature data is used by scientists worldwide.

Smith has alleged that NOAA researchers used inaccurate data or even manipulated it to promote President Obama’s agenda on climate change. Smith shifted tactics last week, alleging that the research was rushed and citing what he says is information provided by agency whistleblowers showing that some employees at the agency were concerned that it was premature to publish the study.

The lawmaker and committee aides have noted that the study was published two months before the Obama administration announced its Clean Power Plan, which aims to cut carbon emissions from power plants, and five months before this month’s climate summit in Paris.

The researchers may have violated the agency’s scientific integrity standard, Smith suggested.

“Their agenda comes first, and the facts come second if at all,” he said in a speech last week to the Texas Public Policy Foundation in Austin. He denounced the president’s climate agenda as “suspect.”

“The science is clear and overwhelming but not in the way the president says,” Smith said. “NOAA employees altered historical climate data to get politically correct results.”

But a spokeswoman for Science said in an interview that the NOAA scientists’ research was subject to a longer, more intensive review than is customary.

“This paper went through as rigorous a review as it could have received,” said Ginger Pinholster, chief of communications for AAAS, which publishes Science. “Any suggestion that the review was ‘rushed’ is baseless and without merit.”

She said the report, submitted to the journal in December, went through two rounds of peer review by other scientists in the field before it was accepted in May. The number of outside reviewers was larger than usual, and the time from submission to online publication was about 50 percent longer than the journal’s average of 109 days, Pinholster said.

During the review, the research was sent back to NOAA for revision and clarification, she said. And because it was based on such an “intensive” examination of global temperature data, the reviewed was handled by one of the journal’s senior editors, she said, “so it could be more carefully assessed.”

For scientists, the concern over Smith’s investigation goes beyond the issue of global warming. They say his efforts are a threat to the independence of the sometimes-messy and painstaking process of discovery.

“This is not just a few scientists grousing about somebody besmirching the work of a group of scientists,” Rush Holt, chief executive officer of the AAAS, said in an interview. “It’s an affront to the scientific process.”

With the threat of a congressional subpoena now hanging over the head of every scientist, “people will start worrying, ‘did I say something wrong in a conversation with a colleague?’ ” said Holt, a former Democratic congressman from New Jersey. “This is not a small matter.”

Scientists also warn that Smith’s efforts raise concerns for NOAA and other federal agencies, which may now worry about jeopardizing their federal budgets if they get in the crosshairs of a lawmaker who disagrees with their work.

“Now you’ve got somebody who has congressional subpoena power doing this, who can continue to investigate and investigate a particular agency because they don’t like a given result,” said Andrew Rosenberg, director of the Center for Science and Democracy at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “They can carry it over in appropriations.”

Rosenberg’s group sent a letter of support Tuesday to Sullivan signed by two dozen former senior NOAA scientists. Staff members on the House Science committee have declined to detail the information provided by whistleblowers, saying this would identify individuals who want to remain anonymous.

But pressed for more specifics, the staff has pointed as an example to new temperature data that was made publicly available earlier this month and questioned how the scientists used it. The data came from a larger number of measuring stations around the world than previous data sets.

“NOAA should not be publishing headline-grabbing results based on data sets that have not been adequately vetted and were not available to the public,” an aide to the House committee said.

“This isn’t an easy high school science experiment where you do it and you get results and write them up,” another aide said. “There are huge data sets from all over the world. They need to be studied. Every time the sets are changed they have to be worked on to make sure the data set is now valid.

The scientists, however, say their research was based on an earlier version of the data that had been made public and examined by other climate experts. The study published in Science was not based on the updated data released earlier this month, although the two versions are very similar, according to NOAA officials and one of the study’s authors.

That author, Thomas Peterson, described in an interview some of the tensions at NOAA between the scientists and computer engineers who were writing software code for the data and wanted more time to make sure it was reliable. The scientists felt confident using the data that had already been made public and were ultimately vindicated by the latest version.

The conclusions of the Science report were based on corrections and adjustments to even earlier land and sea temperature measurements. These were intended to address what scientists described as measurement biases in readings taken of ocean temperatures and land temperatures that did not fully account for the rapidly warming Arctic.

NOAA published the first updates to the land temperature data set in October 2013 in the Geoscience Data Journal. The revised sea surface data were published in the Journal of Climate in October 2014. These updates were the basis of the study in Science, NOAA officials said.

That combined data set was available publicly in July 2014, officials said.

As NOAA scientists examined the data, they discovered that warming trends over the past few decades would be substantially larger than what the earlier data set indicated, recalled Peterson, who retired from NOAA as principal scientist in July.

“Was there a rush to get [the research] out? No,” he said. “Did we want to get this out to advance the science? Of course.”
 
Some Hard Truths About Addressing Climate Change
http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/some-hard-truths-about-addressing-18469/

On November 23, 2015 Boston Globe had an op-ed by Joshua Goldstein and Steven Pinker concerning some “Inconvenient Truths for the environmental movement.” I’m sorry to say that I agree with pretty much every word of it. Why am I sorry? Because Goldstein and Pinker make clear – even though they don’t mention his name – that the Pope was completely wrong in his prescription for addressing climate change. How so? It’s really pretty straightforward.

People want more economic development, not less. They want more markets, not less. It may be that some wealthy societies could still have a relatively smooth transition to renewable fuels without sacrificing economic growth. Unfortunately, that’s not where we have to address the demand for fossil fuels. We have to do so in China and India and other developing countries. I’m sorry, but I’ve seen the projected demand for fossil fuels outside the US and Europe and it’s not pretty. Anyone who thinks that we can quickly and easily eliminate fossil fuel use in those countries and still allow them the economic growth that their citizens demand is delusional.

Which brings us to Goldstein’s and Pinker’s second inconvenient truth; nuclear power has to be a large part of the solution. And I’m afraid that’s probably the end of the conversation for many of my environmental friends, so I’ll cut this short.

I’m still an optimist. I believe that we can still solve climate change. We can do so however, with more use of markets, not less. And we must do so with more economic growth, not less, because the rest of the world won’t be satisfied with less.


Inconvenient truths for the environmental movement
http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/...Dloe97894keW16Ywa9MP/story.html?event=event25

Congressional Republicans make an easy target for their denial of climate change: “I’m not a scientist” is the new “Drill, baby, drill.” But denial also infects large swaths of the environmental movement. Environmentalists deserve enormous credit for calling the world’s attention to the threat to humanity posed by climate change. But precisely because this challenge is so stupendous, we need an uncompromisingly focused plan to solve it. Instead of offering such a solution, traditional greens have been distracted by their signature causes, and in doing so have themselves denied some inconvenient truths.

The first is that, until now, fossil fuels have been good for humanity. The industrial revolution doubled life expectancy in developed countries while multiplying prosperity twentyfold. As industrialization spreads to the developing world, billions of people are rising out of poverty in their turn — affording more food, living longer and healthier lives, becoming better educated, and having fewer babies — thanks to cheap fossil fuels. In poor countries like India, citizens want reliable electricity to power these improvements, and stand ready to vote out any government that fails to deliver it. When American environmentalists tell the world to stop burning fossil fuels, they need to give Indians an alternative that delivers the prosperity they demand and deserve.

That brings us to the second inconvenient truth: Nuclear power is the world’s most abundant and scalable carbon-free energy source. In today’s world, every nuclear plant that is not built is a fossil-fuel plant that does get built, which in most of the world means coal. Yet the use of nuclear power has been stagnant or even contracting.

Nuclear power presses a number of psychological buttons — fear of poisoning, ease of imagining catastrophes, distrust of the unfamiliar and the man-made — and so is held to an irrationally higher standard than fossils. When a coal mine disaster kills dozens, or a deep-water oil leak despoils vast seas, nobody shuts down the coal or oil industries. Yet the 2011 Fukushima nuclear plant accident in Japan, which killed nobody, led Germany to shut down its nuclear plants and quietly replace them with dirty coal. Even France — which gets three quarters of its electricity from nuclear power and has never had an accident — now plans to shut down many plants under pressure from environmentalists.

Nuclear today is relatively expensive, but that is largely because it must clear massive regulatory hurdles while its fossil competitors have been given relatively easy passage. New fourth-generation nuclear designs, a decade away from deployment, will burn waste from today’s plants and run more cheaply and safely.

Without nuclear power, the numbers needed to solve the climate crisis simply do not add up. Solar and wind are growing quickly, but still provide about 1 percent and 4 percent respectively of electricity production, and cannot scale up fast enough to supply what the world needs. Moreover, these intermittent energy sources could power the grid only with big advances in battery technology that are still in the basic-science stage. Even with them, we must not triple-count the energy promised by renewables: they cannot supplant existing fossil fuel use and replace decommissioned nuclear plants and meet the skyrocketing needs of the developing world.

These arguments have been forcefully made by pragmatic environmentalists such as James Hansen and Stewart Brand. But the largest groups with the loudest voices, such as Greenpeace and the Sierra Club, remain implacably antinuclear.

A third truth is that climate change must transcend ideology. A particularly pernicious form of denialism is the conceit within the political left that we must cure longstanding social ills such as inequality, corporate greed, racism, and political corruption along the way to dealing with climate change. Naomi Klein’s campaign to “change everything” casts global warming as an opportunity for the left to step up its various crusades. Whatever you think of such goals, and we agree with many of them, they must not distract us from the priority of preventing catastrophic climate change.

The left also seeks to mobilize support with a narrative that blames the problem on a hateful enemy. The Koch brothers, ExxonMobil, and the Republican Party seem all too eager to step into this role. But even if all these devils magically vanished, we’d still be burning fossil fuels until we found something better.

So what should environmentalists be demanding? Foremost, governments need to fund research and development for low-carbon energy technologies at Apollo-program levels of commitment. Breakthrough innovations are needed in batteries, nuclear energy, liquid biofuels, and carbon capture. The required funding of this ultimate public good is too great a risk with too little a reward for private companies. But it is easily fundable by governments.

The second priority is carbon pricing: charging people and companies to dump their carbon into the atmosphere. Economists across the political spectrum agree that such a price would incentivize conservation, decarbonization, and R&D far more effectively than regulating specific industries and products (to say nothing of sermonizing for a return to an abstemious preindustrial lifestyle). Without carbon pricing, fossil fuels — which are uniquely abundant, portable, and energy-dense — simply have too great an advantage. Yet despite a strong campaign by Citizens’ Climate Lobby, a policy that ought to be a no-brainer has yet to catch on with politicians or the public.

Today, climate activism shoots off in too many directions: divesting from portfolios, urging asceticism, ending capitalism, demonizing ogres, prophesying doom, changing everything. This scattershot campaign is morally invigorating but distracts people from acknowledging the most inconvenient truth of all: None of this will stop catastrophic climate change. The movement should hit “Pause,” do the math, and work for the combination of policies that can actually solve the problem.

Joshua S. Goldstein is emeritus professor of international relations at American University and a research scholar at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. Steven Pinker is professor of psychology at Harvard University and the author of “The Better Angels of Our Nature.”
 
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Farrell said:

“The contrarian efforts have been so effective for the fact that they have made it difficult for ordinary Americans to even know who to trust.”

Farrell’s study used computer analytics to systematically analyse 40,785 texts from the media, think tanks and lobbying firms, and more than 4,500 individuals with ties to 164 organisations sceptical of climate change.

The study analysed the papers, printed over a 20-year timescale, separating those which had received corporate funding from the others.

Farrell said the results found an “ecosystem of influence”, as corporate money “created a united network within which the contrarian messages could be strategically created”.

“This counter-movement produced messages aimed, at the very least, at creating ideological polarisation through politicised tactics, and at the very most, at overtly refuting current scientific consensus with scientific findings of their own.”


Farrell J. Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/11/18/1509433112.abstract

Drawing on large-scale computational data and methods, this research demonstrates how polarization efforts are influenced by a patterned network of political and financial actors. These dynamics, which have been notoriously difficult to quantify, are illustrated here with a computational analysis of climate change politics in the United States. The comprehensive data include all individual and organizational actors in the climate change countermovement (164 organizations), as well as all written and verbal texts produced by this network between 1993-2013 (40,785 texts, more than 39 million words). Two main findings emerge. First, that organizations with corporate funding were more likely to have written and disseminated texts meant to polarize the climate change issue. Second, and more importantly, that corporate funding influences the actual thematic content of these polarization efforts, and the discursive prevalence of that thematic content over time. These findings provide new, and comprehensive, confirmation of dynamics long thought to be at the root of climate change politics and discourse. Beyond the specifics of climate change, this paper has important implications for understanding ideological polarization more generally, and the increasing role of private funding in determining why certain polarizing themes are created and amplified. Lastly, the paper suggests that future studies build on the novel approach taken here that integrates large-scale textual analysis with social networks.
 
The feasibility of meeting the 2 C warming limit
http://www.koomey.com/post/119106731153

Context matters, and what seems infeasible today based on judgments about political will can become feasible tomorrow. Who would have thought, for example, that Chinese coal use could drop 7.4% in a year? Happily, that’s just what happened in April 2015. Who would have thought that the US auto industry could retool from making millions of cars per year to building war machines in 6 months? Yet that’s what happened soon after the US entered World War II. In both cases, what seemed impossible looking forward became possible when people put their minds to it (and policy makers pushed for big changes)

I would rephrase Roberts’ summary to say “we can avoid some awful shit if we just get our act together, and the only thing standing in the way is our willingness to face the reality of the climate problem.” Whether we can meet the 2 C warming limit is something that cannot be accurately predicted in advance, it can only be determined by making the attempt. Modeling exercises can be useful, but it is only by trying to reduce emissions that we can determine what is possible.

Our choices today affect our options tomorrow. If we choose wisely, we can still avoid the worst consequences of climate change, but we must choose. We are out of time, and the time for choice is now.
 
The real climate conspiracy: What you’re not being told
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...cy-what-youre-not-being-told/?utm_source=NSNS

Some climate change deniers are convinced that global warming is a massive conspiracy. Ironically, there is a sort of conspiracy – but one that downplays how serious the consequences could be and exaggerates the impact of action to limit them. It involves everyone from scientists and politicians to activists and journalists.

At the research level, there is what renowned climate scientist James Hansen calls the John Mercer effect. In the 1970s, Mercer published the first paper that suggested the West Antarctic ice sheet could collapse in response to warming. Afterwards, he struggled to get funding, and those who criticised his work were regarded as more authoritative than those who praised it. Others, including Hansen, had similar problems.

This is still an issue. Many climate scientists are censoring their own work to please their political paymasters, according to Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK. In particular, he says, they are not being honest about our prospects of limiting warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures.

It is hard to prove such claims, but there is evidence that climate scientists are generally too conservative, rather than alarmist as deniers assert. A 2013 paper that compared past predictions with outcomes found that the majority underestimated changes. And Mercer was right – the collapse he predicted has begun.

Playing along

It should surprise no one that some politicians and corporations at best exaggerate what they are doing to tackle climate change, and at worst lie: the UK’s “greenest government ever” claim is a prime example. What is surprising is how many journalists and activists are playing along.

Just take a look at coverage ahead of the Paris climate meeting that starts next week. You will find many articles that talk about limiting warming to 2 °C – or even 1.5 °C – as if it were still feasible.

Here’s an example from Alok Jha, a science correspondent at UK broadcaster ITV, who is by no means alone: “Is there still a chance of reaching 2C by 2100, given that the current pledges for Paris only reach 2.7C? Absolutely… even if countries don’t get to a 2C agreement in Paris, they could still put in place a mechanism to achieve it in the years to come.”

Yet the numbers show that we’re already committed to more than 1.6 °C of warming. And limiting it to 2 °C would require far more drastic action than any politician would dare to contemplate, even if we began now – with measures needed such as reducing the number of passenger flights. Keeping to this limit is possible only in the same sense that world peace can be achieved if people would just stop fighting.

So why are so many journalists following the official UN line that 2 °C is still achievable with just a little more effort?

Mainly because this is what they are being told by climate scientists and activists, who point to scenarios for hitting 2 °C without always making it clear what these scenarios entail. Some assume emissions peaked in 2010 – even though the UN expects them to still be rising in 2030. The scenarios that do not depend on an early peak assume we will be able to suck vast quantities of CO2 out of the atmosphere in the future (a prospect that some involved in carbon capture projects regard as laughable).

Censoring doom

But there is more to it than this. There is a view that readers are not just fed up with stories on climate doom, but that such stories are counterproductive.

Cognitive psychologist Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Bristol, UK, summed it up in July: “If you scare people without offering a solution then they manage their fear by denying the problem. So, the most important thing is to reinforce that there are solutions and that little steps do add up to something in the end.”

This kind of argument seems to have convinced many activists. Even as they push for more to be done, they keep insisting that 2 °C is still politically possible despite the mounting evidence to the contrary.

Some go further. Those of us who point out that 2 °C is no longer realistic will be to blame if we fail to meet this target, apparently.

“Insisting that the goal is no longer possible is dangerous insofar as it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, providing an excuse for politicians unwilling to support the dramatic actions needed,” wrote climatologist Michael Mann in a book review in October. Mann, famed for his long battle with climate deniers, went on to describe this perspective as a “softer, gentler form of denialism – the denial of hope”.

Really? My view is we should tell it like it is, even if the message is not one that people like. Anderson thinks that scientists have the same duty. “It is not our job to be politically expedient with our analysis or to curry favour with our funders,” he wrote recently.

Facing reality

This is not about idealism, but practicality. Wishful thinking does not solve problems. Pigs in straw houses might prefer to believe there are no wolves, but that does not make it so. The brutal reality is that we have already set in motion processes that will lead to profound changes to our planet, including massive sea-level rises.

The rational response to being told that it is unrealistic for us to avoid a 2 °C rise is not to despair and give up, but to redouble our efforts to cut emissions. The more we do to limit warming, the better off we will be.

At the same time, we must accept the need to prepare for a future more than 2°C warmer and the changes that will bring. It makes no sense to keep building on land that is likely to be under water in 2100, for instance.

Sorry the message is not more palatable. That’s just how it is.
 
Paris Climate Talks Avoid Scientists’ Goal of ‘Carbon Budget’ [We are just going to "wing it"! Thanks.]
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/s...id-scientists-goal-of-carbon-budget.html?_r=0

After two decades of talks that failed to slow the relentless pace of global warming, negotiators from almost 200 countries are widely expected to sign a deal in the next two weeks to take concrete steps to cut emissions.

...

Yet the negotiators gathering in Paris will not be discussing any plan that comes close to meeting their own stated goal of limiting the increase of global temperatures to a reasonably safe level.

They have pointedly declined to take up a recommendation from scientists, made several years ago, that they set a cap on total greenhouse gases as a way to achieve that goal, and then figure out how to allocate the emissions fairly. The pledges countries are making are voluntary, and were established in most nations as a compromise between the desire to be ambitious and the perceived cost and political difficulty of emissions cutbacks.

In effect, the countries are vowing to make changes that collectively still fall far short of the necessary goal, much like a patient who, upon hearing from his doctor that he must lose 50 pounds to avoid life-threatening health risks, takes pride in cutting out fries but not cake and ice cream.
 

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