Climate Change

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/26/s...igher-temperatures.html?hpw&rref=science&_r=0

In a paper released on Tuesday by the journal Geology, a group led by Justin S. Stroup and Meredith A. Kelly of Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H., used elaborate techniques to date the waxing and waning over the past 500 years of the glacier, called Qori Kalis.

The group then compared the glacier’s movements to a record of ice accumulation on top of Quelccaya, obtained from long cylinders of ice drilled by the glaciologist Lonnie G. Thompson of Ohio State University.

The new paper suggests that the glacier sometimes grew during periods when the accumulation of ice in the region was relatively low, and conversely, that it retreated during some periods of high ice accumulation.

Dr. Kelly and Mr. Stroup conclude that the glacier is sensitive to temperature and that other factors, like the amount of snowfall, are secondary, thus supporting a view long held by Dr. Thompson that the glacier can essentially be viewed as a huge thermometer.

“The big driver is temperature,” said Dr. Thompson, who was not involved in the new paper.

Assuming it holds up, that is a sobering finding, considering how fast the Qori Kalis glacier is now retreating. Dr. Thompson documented last year that a part of the glacier that had apparently taken 1,600 years to grow had melted in a mere 25 years. He interpreted that as a sign that human emissions and the resultant warming have thrown the natural world far out of kilter.

Qori Kalis is hardly an outlier, though: land ice is melting virtually everywhere on the planet. That has been occurring since a 500-year period called the Little Ice Age that ended in about 1850, but the pace seems to have accelerated substantially in recent decades as human emissions have begun to overwhelm the natural cycles.

In the middle and high latitudes, from Switzerland to Alaska, a half-century of careful glaciology has established that temperature is the main factor controlling the growth and recession of glaciers.

But the picture has been murkier in the tropics. There, too, glaciers are retreating, but scientists have had more trouble sorting out exactly why.

That glaciers should exist at all in the warmest part of the earth is perhaps strange; they do so only in high, cold mountain regions. The tropical glaciers receive intense sunlight virtually year-round. Ice atop these glaciers can sometimes vaporize without even passing through a stage as liquid water. Over short periods, at least, the tropical glaciers appear to be sensitive to changes in clouds and many other factors.

One group of scientists is coming to the conclusion that even in these conditions, temperature is nonetheless the main factor controlling the ebb and flow of tropical glaciers over centuries.

But a second group believes that in some circumstances, at least, a tropical glacier’s long-term fate may reflect other factors. In particular, these scientists believe big changes in precipitation can sometimes have more of a role than temperature.
Continue reading the main story

In interviews and emails, scientists from both groups praised the new paper for its reconstruction of the Qori Kalis glacier’s movements, a feat that required a decade of intensive labor.

A core finding is that the Peruvian glacier was expanding during the Little Ice Age. That adds to a growing body of research suggesting that the cooling during that mysterious event was global in scope, which may in turn help scientists determine the causes.

“I think it’s a great study,” said Aaron E. Putnam of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, who has done extensive work on glaciers in New Zealand. “They do something that I haven’t seen done in such an elegant way.”

But some scientists were critical of the paper’s broader claim about temperature as the controlling factor for the glacier. “I actually believe that finding is probably accurate, but I don’t see that they make a compelling case for that with this study,” said Douglas R. Hardy of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who has done extensive work on Quelccaya, including documenting a recent, sharp increase of air temperatures.

Dr. Hardy and several of the other critics noted that the Kelly paper’s temperature conclusion depended strongly on a record of ice accumulation over centuries that Dr. Thompson had compiled by drilling into Quelccaya. The ice has been compressed over time, so the evidence requires considerable interpretation.

All of the scientists involved in the debate over tropical glaciers believe that global warming is a problem and that human emissions pose a long-term threat to the planet. But the unresolved controversy has served as fodder for skeptics of global warming, who say the scientists do not really know what is going on.

The biggest scientific battle has been fought not over Quelccaya but over Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania. There, too, Dr. Thompson has asserted that the glaciers atop the mountain — the “snows of Kilimanjaro,” in Ernest Hemingway’s phrase — are disappearing because of planetary warming.

But Dr. Hardy and other scientists like Georg Kaser of the University of Innsbruck in Austria have argued that it is actually a series of other factors, primarily a reduction in precipitation, that is starving the Kilimanjaro glaciers. That group says the precipitation decline could be, at least in part, a secondary effect of global warming, caused by rising temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

Dr. Kelly is now looking for evidence that may shed light on the Kilimanjaro debate.

Her method involves dating ridges of rock and debris, known as moraines, that glaciers leave at their far edges. Mount Kilimanjaro does not have the right kind of rock, but she has begun a study of glacial moraines in the Rwenzori Mountains, 500 miles away in Uganda, that could eventually show whether glaciers in Africa tend to behave in the same way as the one in Peru.

Peru's Quelccaya Ice Cap Size Driven By Temperature, Not Snowfall
 
Study: Global Warming Will Cause 180,000 More Rapes by 2099

Controversial new research predicts that over the coming century, rising temperatures will result in more violent crime.


—By Jeremy Schulman | Thu Feb. 27, 2014 3:00 AM GMT



Global warming isn't just going to melt the Arctic and flood our cities—it's also going to make Americans more likely to kill each other.

That's the conclusion of a controversial new study that uses historic crime and temperature data to show that hotter weather leads to more murders, more rapes, more robberies, more assaults, and more property crimes.

"Looking at the past, we see a strong relationship between temperature and crime," says study author Matthew Ranson, an economist with the policy consulting firm Abt Associates. "We think that is likely to continue in the future."

Just how much more crime can we expect? Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's warming projections, Ranson calculated that from 2010 to 2099, climate change will "cause" an additional "22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 cases of vehicle theft" in the United States.

Ranson acknowledges that those results represent a relatively small jump in the overall level of crime—a 2.2 percent increase in murder and a 3.1 percent increase in rape, for instance. Still, says John Roman, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute's Justice Policy Center, those numbers add up to "a lot of victims" over the course of the century.

The study's results don't mean that defendants should be able to argue that they were driven to a life of crime by the weather. "The decision to commit a crime is a matter of personal responsibility," Ranson explained in an email. "Neither higher outdoor temperatures nor reduced police enforcement are valid excuses for individuals to commit criminal acts. Yet, from a statistical perspective, both cause crime to increase."

So why would higher temperatures increase the crime rate? According to Ranson, the answer might vary depending on the type of crime. As shown in the charts below, property crimes, especially burglary and larceny, initially tend to increase as the weather warms but then level off once temperatures reach about 50 degrees. This suggests that cold weather may create obstacles to committing these types of crimes—Ranson cites closed windows, for example—obstacles that disappear when it's warmer outside.

By contrast, the relationship between violent crime and temperature appears to be highly linear—as temperatures keep rising, so does the number of crimes. According to Ranson, this pattern supports the idea that "warmer temperatures increase the frequency of social interactions, some small percentage of which result in violence." In other words, you're more likely to mug someone if it's warm enough to leave your house. But there's another factor that Ranson suggests may also be playing a role: Past research indicates that as temperatures increase, people tend to become more aggressive.

Study: Global Warming Will Cause 180,000 More Rapes by 2099 | Mother Jones
 
Seems intuitive to me, thugs, rapists and thieves don't like cold weather! That's why crime rates decline as you move away (north or south) from more temperate/equatorial climates! :)
 
Boohoohooo let the Hot Earth Society set another end of time date. Just like their religious zealots cousins making end of time predictions. [:o)]
Different angle/same fraud/different chumps/same goal$$$$$$$$$
 

Doctor contends that global warming is a public health emergency


Posted: Thursday, March 6, 2014 10:59 pm

By Harold Reutter
harold.reutter@theindependent.com


Asthma, hay fever, ADHD, blue baby syndrome and gastroenteritis. As Dr. Wendy Ring noted, those are all medical conditions that affect humans.

But Ring told an audience at Central Community College-Grand Island Campus, audiences at CCC-Columbus, CCC-Hastings and CCC education centers at Holdrege, Kearney and Lexington Thursday, the cases of all those human illnesses are increasing because of global climate change.

During her presentation, she encouraged audience participation by having people make a medical diagnosis of the illness, then form a hypothesis of on how global climate change is connected to that illness.

Ring said the number of asthma cases in the United States is rising because of increasing ozone levels in the atmosphere. She said children are especially susceptible to asthma for a number of reasons, including the fact that their respiration rate is faster than the rate for adults.

Exercise means children breathe even more rapidly, she said. As a result, children who play three outdoor sports in an area with high levels of ozone are three times more likely to develop asthma than the kid who might be labeled a couch potato.

“Ozone is a fancy name for smog,” said Ring, who said high ozone levels are not confined only to big cities like Los Angeles or Denver. The family physician said one source of ozone is coal-burning power plants and she noted the emissions from smokestacks at such plants travel very long distances.

As a result, coal-plant emissions from Asia travel across the Pacific Ocean and help make the mostly rural San Joaquin Valley in central California one of the smoggiest areas in the United States.

During her opening remarks, Ring noted that global warming is caused by rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. She said carbon is produced anytime something is burned, whether it be gasoline, oil, coal or natural gas.

She said the production of carbon — actually the production of carbon dioxide or CO2 — creates an atmospheric blanket that does not allow the heat to escape. As a result, the way to slow down global warming is for humans to “quit burning stuff,” or at least quit burning stuff at the current rate.

CO2 also increases pollen production, which is why global climate change is a factor for people who have hay fever, Ring said. Because the earth is getting warmer, the hay fever season is getting longer.

While CO2 helps produce more pollen, it cuts down on yields for crops such as corn and especially on a crop such as soybeans, she said. Global climate change also can help create drought conditions.

Ring said that when farmers apply nitrogen fertilizer to fields, they apply it at the rate for the high-yielding crop they hope to harvest in the fall. However, if drought kills the corn crop, then there are no corn plants to take up nitrogen from the soil. Even if there is not a total crop failure, greatly reduced yields will mean less removal of nitrogen from the earth.

As a result, when it does rain, nitrogen fertilizer is leeched from the soil into the groundwater, she said. If high-nitrate groundwater becomes part of a drinking water supply for people, then it’s possible for a baby to develop a rash and become irritable. More importantly, that baby might also develop blue-tinged skin because of an inability to process oxygen properly due to the high nitrates in the drinking water used for baby formula.

Ring said high nitrates also can have bad health effects on adults.

Lead poisoning in children has been declining because of the removal of lead from gasoline and from paint, she said. However, rain still can wash lead from the atmosphere to the ground, where once again, the substance works its way into the groundwater, which may be used for human consumption.

Ring said the worst thing about lead poisoning is that once it happens to a child, the damage is permanent. It cannot be undone.

Arsenic is often a naturally occurring substance in soil and rocks, she said. However, if drought causes the water table to drop significantly, arsenic that is part of underground rocks can be exposed to air and oxygenated, creating a substance called arsenite that can be 100 times more toxic than the original arsenic.

Cyclospora is found in warm climates. Symptoms include watery diarrhea, stomach and gut cramping and weight loss. Ring noted that a number of people who dined at Olive Garden and Red Lobster restaurants — including people from Nebraska — became ill last year because of imported foods that were used to make salads at the restaurants.

Ring said that with the drought now affecting California, it is quite possible that Americans will be eating more vegetables imported from countries that do not have the same stringent safety standards for food as the U.S. “Wash your vegetables well,” she said.

Ring’s talk was called “Nebraska on the Edge: How Climate Change Threatens Public Health.” At the beginning of her presentation, the doctor said that Nebraska is “on the edge” because it has not suffered the severe drought that some states farther west have had to endure. But as the atmosphere continues to warm, some of the problems that have plagued western states will become more common in Nebraska.

She pointed out that Nebraska already is seeing increased outbreaks of toxic blue-green algae blooms in lakes and ponds.

In addition to all the diseases that become more prevalent, intense heat alone can be a killer, said Ring, who said heat waves that last for days or weeks before breaking can kill people. She said heat waves that once occurred somewhere in the world once every 30 years may become an annual event at various spots on the globe by the middle of this century.

Ring was adamant that individual initiative — driving hybrid automobiles, using energy-efficient light bulbs, recycling — is not enough to halt global climate change. She said the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere must be dramatically reduced by 2030 and individual initiative won’t make enough of a difference.

“Some people can’t afford to give up their cars. Some people can’t afford to go out and buy hybrids right away,” said Ring, who noted much faster action is needed, so that is why the country cannot wait for enough individuals to take action to have an impact on global climate change.

She said climate change is a public health issue and needs a public health solution.

British physician John Snow traced a deadly cholera outbreak to a public water pump on Broad Street, she said. But he did not go door-to-door warning individuals not to drink water from the pump.

“He took the handle off the pump,” said Ring, who noted that solution is why Snow is considered the father of public health.

When it comes to climate change, “the handle must be taken off the pump,” she said, noting that that means greater reliance on renewable energy sources so that the human race is “burning less stuff.”

Ring said that approach means limiting global warming to 4 or 5 degrees, which our children and grandchildren can survive, rather than a temperature increase of 7 to 12 degrees, which they cannot.

Doctor contends that global warming is a public health emergency - The Grand Island Independent: Local News
 
Assistant Professor of Philosophy Wants to Jail Global Warming Skeptics

March 17, 2014 by Daniel Greenfield

A Philosophy major is generally considered almost as useful as a fork with all the tines broken off. An assistant professor of philosophy has the same career track as a Blockbuster Video employee in 2020 but without any of the glamour.

But like cockroaches after a nuclear apocalypse, some like Lawrence Torcello, an Assistant Professor of Philosophy at Rochester Institute of Technology, are adapting by putting their knowledge of Kant to turning out proper cant.

At The Conversation (not to be confused with just any conversation), a site that bills itself as a platform for academics to practice journalism, an idea up there with enrolling serial killers in dental school, Global Warming and the lack of belief in the faith of the green Chicken Little is a source of much concern.

Rod Lamberts, Deputy Director, Australian National Centre for Public Awareness of Science at Australian National University, says that in the debate, “Forget the Moncktonites, disregard the Boltists, and snub the Abbottsians. Ignore them, step around them, or walk over them. Drown them not just with sensible conversations, but with useful actions. Flood the airwaves and apply tactics advertisers have successfully used for years.”

“What we need now is to become comfortable with the idea that the ends will justify the means.”

And then invade Poland by the spring.

It really tells you something when the Deputy Director for an organization dedicated to the Public Awareness of Science sounds like he just stepped out of The Network.

But topping him is Torcello, an Assistant Professor of Philosophy with big, big ideas. Like locking up everyone who disagrees with him.

We have good reason to consider the funding of climate denial to be criminally and morally negligent. The charge of criminal and moral negligence ought to extend to all activities of the climate deniers who receive funding as part of a sustained campaign to undermine the public’s understanding of scientific consensus.

Those funding climate denial campaigns can reasonably predict the public’s diminished ability to respond to climate change as a result of their behaviour. Indeed, public uncertainty regarding climate science, and the resulting failure to respond to climate change, is the intentional aim of politically and financially motivated denialists.

My argument probably raises an understandable, if misguided, concern regarding free speech. We must make the critical distinction between the protected voicing of one’s unpopular beliefs, and the funding of a strategically organised campaign to undermine the public’s ability to develop and voice informed opinions. Protecting the latter as a form of free speech stretches the definition of free speech to a degree that undermines the very concept.​

I always love misguided concerns about free speech. Who are those lunatics who don’t understand that criminalizing arguing your point of view in the public space is fundamentally different than freedom of speech?

Especially when your point of view prevents people from forming informed opinions that are of the right sort.

Isn’t it obvious? All we have to do is lock up all the bad people who disagree with us… and then we win.

It worked in the USSR. It’s bound to work in the Philosophy Department of the Rochester Institute of Technology.

I don’t seem to see a lot of articles by critics of Global Warming calling for the imprisonment of all Warmists for the protection of the public. Maybe it’s because they’re the good guys.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/dgreenfield/assistant-professor-of-philosophy-suggests-arresting-global-warming-skeptics/
 
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Earth Will Cross the Climate Danger Threshold by 2036 - Scientific American
 

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This morning, I just had to laugh [irony] at the headlines. We are not walking, but moving at light speed towards our extinction. Vote all deniers out of office if you care at all about the future.

UN climate study: still time to save the world
UN climate study: still time to save the world - FT.com

U.N. Climate Change Report Says Worst Scenarios Can Still Be Avoided
Emissions Rose Quicker Between 2000 and 2010 Than Previous Three Decades, Says Report
U.N. Climate Change Report Says Worst Scenarios Can Still Be Avoided - WSJ.com
 
YEARS of LIVING DANGEROUSLY
https://vimeo.com/78162825.

YEARS of LIVING DANGEROUSLY is a groundbreaking SHOWTIME® documentary event series exploring the human impact of climate change. This innovative docu-series is a collaboration between some of Hollywood’s biggest stars and leading national news journalists, who will provide reports of people affected by, and seeking solutions to, climate change. Home - Years Of Living Dangerously

Years of Living Dangerously airs on Showtime starting April 13 at 10pm ET/PT.
The series will be made up of eight one-hour segments.

Years of Living Dangerously Premiere Full Episode
[ame]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brvhCnYvxQQ[/ame]
 
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Lovejoy S. Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming. Climate Dynamics 2014:1-13. http://www.physics.mcgill.ca/~gang/...neweprint/Anthro.climate.dynamics.13.3.14.pdf

Although current global warming may have a large anthropogenic component, its quantification relies primarily on complex General Circulation Models (GCM’s) assumptions and codes; it is desirable to complement this with empirically based methodologies.

Previous attempts to use the recent climate record have concentrated on “fingerprinting” or otherwise comparing the record with GCM outputs.

By using CO2 radiative forcings as a linear surrogate for all anthropogenic effects we estimate the total anthropogenic warming and (effective) climate sensitivity finding: ?T anth = 0.87 ± 0.11 K,?2xCO2,eff=3.08±0.58K.

These are close the IPPC AR5 values ?T anth = 0.85 ± 0.20 K and?2xCO2=1.5?4.5K (equilibrium) climate sensitivity and are independent of GCM models, radiative transfer calculations and emission histories.

We statistically formulate the hypothesis of warming through natural variability by using centennial scale probabilities of natural fluctuations estimated using scaling, fluctuation analysis on multiproxy data. We take into account two nonclassical statistical features—long range statistical dependencies and “fat tailed” probability distributions (both of which greatly amplify the probability of extremes).

Even in the most unfavourable cases, we may reject the natural variability hypothesis at confidence levels >99 %.


The Statistical Probability That Climate Change Is Not Manmade Is 0.1 Percent
The Statistical Probability That Climate Change Is Not Manmade Is 0.1 Percent | Motherboard
 
IPCC report: the scientists have done their bit, now it is up to us
The world must seize this remaining opportunity and act upon the timely roadmap that climate scientists have provided for us
IPCC report: the scientists have done their bit, now it is up to us | Leo Hickman | Environment | theguardian.com

So, there we have it. The seven-year task undertaken by hundreds of the world's leading scientists, who sifted through thousands of the latest peer-reviewed studies examining the causes, impacts and mitigation options of climate change, is over.

The last of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's (IPCC) three "working group" reports was published yesterday in Berlin and the take-home message was crystal clear: "The high-speed mitigation train needs to leave the station very soon and all of global society needs to get on board," said the chair, Rajendra Pachauri.
 
Climate contrarian backlash - a difficult lesson for scientific journals to learn
Poor handling of climate contrarian papers and bullying has often forced scientific journal editors to resign
Climate contrarian backlash - a difficult lesson for scientific journals to learn | Dana Nuccitelli | Environment | theguardian.com

Scientific journals have had a bumpy road trying to learn how to deal with climate contrarians. Poor decisions by journal staff in dealing with contrarians have often led to editors resigning and a damaged reputation in the academic community.
 
What is clear, however, from an abundance of worldwide indicators, is that global temperatures are on a path to be "far warmer than the warmest interglacials in millions of years," said Bierman. "There is a 2.7-million-year-old soil sitting under Greenland. The ice sheet on top of it has not disappeared in the time in which humans became a species. But if we keep on our current trajectory, the ice sheet will not survive. And once you clear it off, it’s really hard to put it back on." Researchers Find 3-million-year-old Landscape Beneath Greenland Ice Sheet | NASA


Bierman PR, Corbett LB, Graly JA, et al. Preservation of a Preglacial Landscape Under the Center of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Science. Preservation of a Preglacial Landscape Under the Center of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Continental ice sheets typically sculpt landscapes via erosion; under certain conditions, ancient landscapes can be preserved beneath ice and can survive extensive and repeated glaciation. We used concentrations of atmospherically produced cosmogenic beryllium-10, carbon, and nitrogen to show that ancient soil has been preserved in basal ice for millions of years at the center of the ice sheet at Summit, Greenland.

This finding suggests ice sheet stability through the Pleistocene (i.e., the past 2.7 million years). The preservation of this soil implies that the ice has been non-erosive and frozen to the bed for much of that time, that there was no substantial exposure of central Greenland once the ice sheet became fully established, and that preglacial landscapes can remain preserved for long periods under continental ice sheets.
 
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