Climate Change

[Michael Scally MD]

Antarctic loss could double expected sea level rise by 2100, scientists say
Antarctic loss could double expected sea level rise by 2100, scientists say

Sea levels could rise nearly twice as much as previously predicted by the end of this century if carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, an outcome that could devastate coastal communities around the globe, according to new research published Wednesday.

The startling findings, published in the journal Nature, paint a far grimmer picture than current consensus predictions, which have suggested that seas could rise by just under a meter at most by the year 2100. Those estimates relied on the notion that expanding ocean waters and the melting of relatively small glaciers would fuel the majority of sea level rise, rather than the massive ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.

The scientists behind Wednesday’s study used sophisticated computer models to decipher a longstanding riddle about Antarctica: how did it surrender so much ice during previous warm periods? They found that similar conditions in the future could lead to monumental and irreversible increases in sea levels. If high levels of greenhouse gas emissions continue, they concluded, oceans could rise by close to two meters in total (more than six feet) by the end of the century. The melting of ice on Antarctica alone could cause seas to rise more than 15 meters (49 feet) by 2500.

…


DeConto RM, Pollard D. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 2016;531(7596):591-7. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v531/n7596/full/nature17145.html

Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6–9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

USGCRP, 2016: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. Crimmins, A., J. Balbus, J.L. Gamble, C.B. Beard, J.E. Bell, D. Dodgen, R.J. Eisen, N. Fann, M.D. Hawkins, S.C. Herring, L. Jantarasami, D.M. Mills, S. Saha, M.C. Sarofim, J. Trtanj, and L. Ziska, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 312 pp. Downloads | Climate and Health Assessment

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Why fossil fuel power plants will be left stranded
Far from having years to work out how to curb the risks of climate change, we face a moment of truth.
Why fossil fuel power plants will be left stranded - FT.com

Virtually all new fossil fuel-burning power-generation capacity will end up “stranded”. This is the argument of a paper by academics at Oxford university. We have grown used to the idea that it will be impossible to burn a large portion of estimated reserves of fossil fuels if the likely rise in global mean temperatures is to be kept below 2C. But fuels are not the only assets that might be stranded. A similar logic can be applied to parts of the capital stock.

...

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Highlights
· Defines ‘2°C capital stock’ as infrastructure that gives a 50% chance of 2°C warming.
· The ‘2°C capital stock’ for electricity generation will be reached by 2017 on current trends.
· New electricity generation assets globally must then be zero carbon to avoid stranding, CCS or CDR.
· Risk of stranded assets is relevant to investors and policy makers.

Pfeiffer A, Millar R, Hepburn C, Beinhocker E. The ‘2°C capital stock’ for electricity generation: Committed cumulative carbon emissions from the electricity generation sector and the transition to a green economy. Applied Energy. The ‘2°C capital stock’ for electricity generation: Committed cumulative carbon emissions from the electricity generation sector and the transition to a green economy

This paper defines the ‘2°C capital stock’ as the global stock of infrastructure which, if operated to the end of its normal economic life, implies global mean temperature increases of 2°C or more (with 50% probability). Using IPCC carbon budgets and the IPCC’s AR5 scenario database, and assuming future emissions from other sectors are compatible with a 2°C pathway, we calculate that the 2°C capital stock for electricity will be reached by 2017 based on current trends. In other words, even under the very optimistic assumption that other sectors reduce emissions in line with a 2°C target, no new emitting electricity infrastructure can be built after 2017 for this target to be met, unless other electricity infrastructure is retired early or retrofitted with carbon capture technologies. Policymakers and investors should question the economics of new long-lived energy infrastructure involving positive net emissions.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Was the COP21 and the Paris agreement a success?
Was the COP21 and the Paris agreement a success?

Conclusion

To answer the question asked in the title of this piece – personally I believe the outcome of Paris should be seen as a success by everyone who went on the streets in the years leading up to this event, for the many different NGOs, scientists, diplomats, and politicians who made this outcome possible by communicating public will, providing the necessary scientific facts, and negotiating the drafts and parts of the agreement, not only in Paris but also on many meetings and conferences before. Within what was possible for such a conference the outcome is certainly at the upper end of the scale of expected results. It doesn’t provide a mechanism, which will automatically bring us to 1.5 or even 2.0 degree Celsius but that was never on the table. It will rather make it more likely that ambition levels are being increased during future COPs and that eventually these ambition levels will be sufficient to limit and stop global warming.

However, there is one major drop of bitterness in this overall very sweet accord: under current circumstances achieving 1.5°C already seems like a lost battle. Latest research from the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) at the Oxford Martin School shows, that even though the carbon budget for 1.5°C is not yet depleted we have already built the infrastructure which will bring us there, and even further.[6] Emissions of existing coal- and gas-power stations and assets from other emitting sectors will, if utilized until the end of their useful lives, emit enough GHGs to consume not only the 1.5°C budget but also large parts of the 2°C budget. In fact, the research shows that, under these assumptions, every new installation from 2017 on needs to be net-zero carbon if we want a fair chance to achieve ‘only’ 2°C.

While this might sound discouraging it also bears a positive message: We haven’t just spent the entire budget for neither 1.5°C nor 2°C, yet. We still stand a chance to stay within these budgets if we act fast and decisive, bringing down emissions from new installations to net-zero and stranding old existing ones before the end of their useful lifespan. Paris finally gives a clear direction for companies and investors. The accord is certainly not sufficient if judged by climate science, and it is clearly not strong enough for poor countries, but it is a clear signal. Paris is just the starting gun for the marathon race towards a low- and zero-carbon future but it means that governments will now go further and faster to solve climate change than ever before, or as IMF Chief Christine Lagarde put it: “Governments must now put words into actions, in particular by implementing policies that make effective progress on the mitigation pledges they have made.”

The transition to a low-carbon economy is now unstoppable and will mean the end of the fossil fuel age. Such signal will give investors the confidence and clear directions they were missing over the last years and unlock much private finance and effort for solving this global challenge, important pre-conditions to also unlock the full potential of the $100bn a year climate funding. This is crucial for a successful decarbonization of the entire world economy before we hit ‘dangerous’ levels of climate change.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Climate change will wipe $2.5tn off global financial assets: study
Climate change will wipe $2.5tn off global financial assets: study

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Recent Daily Average Mauna Loa CO2
April 10: 409.34 PPM
ESRL Global Monitoring Division - Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network

[NOT A TYPO!!!]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Hothouse Gas Spikes to Extreme 409.3 Parts Per Million on April 10 — Record Rate of Atmospheric CO2 Increase Likely for 2016
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/11/hothouse-gas-spikes-to-extreme-409-3-parts-per-million-on-april-10-record-rate-of-atmospheric-co2-increase-likely-for-2016/

Simply put, a rapid atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gasses is swiftly pushing the Earth well outside of any climate context that human beings are used to. The influence of an extreme El Nino on the world ocean system’s ability to take down a massive human carbon emission together with signs of what appears to be a significantly smaller but growing emission from global carbon stores looks to be setting the world up for another record jump in atmospheric CO2 levels during 2016.

…

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

A Professional Foe of Climate Campaigners Gets His Big-Screen Moment
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2...imate-campaigners-gets-his-big-screen-moment/

[O]n May 2, “Climate Hustle.” In a “one-night national theater event,” this documentary, its promoters assert, “will tear the cover off of global warming hype, and expose the myths and exaggerations of this multi-billion dollar issue.”

The film was co-written and is narrated by Marc Morano, a professional antagonist of liberals and environmentalists who cut his chops working for right-wing luminaries like Rush Limbaugh and Oklahoma Senator James. M. Inhofe. He seemed to hit his stride from 2008 through 2010, when those fighting efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions were buoyed by email hacks, the Great Recession, the breakdown of climate talks in Copenhagen and astutter-step in the global warming trend. (Revisit this 2010 Esquire profile to recall the times.)

Randy Olson, a marine biologist turned filmmaker and storytelling maven, captured Morano’s style in “Sizzle – A Global Warming Comedy” — his prescient 2008 mock documentary on the climate fight. Here’s a telling scene: ...

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Scorching temperatures. Melting ice caps. Killer hurricanes and tornadoes. Disappearing polar bears. The end of civilization as we know it! Are emissions from our cars, factories, and farms causing catastrophic climate change? Is there a genuine scientific consensus? Or is man-made “global warming” an overheated environmental con job being used to push for increased government regulations and a new “Green” energy agenda?

CLIMATE HUSTLE will answer these questions, and many, many more. Produced in the one-of-a-kind entertaining and informative style that has made CFACT and Marc Morano’s award-winning ClimateDepot.com one of the world’s most sought after sources for reliable, hard-to-find facts about climate issues, this groundbreaking film will tear the cover off of global warming hype, and expose the myths and exaggerations of this multi-billion dollar issue.

CLIMATE HUSTLE will reveal the history of climate scares including global cooling; debunk outrageous claims about temperatures, extreme weather, and the so-called “consensus;” expose the increasingly shrill calls to “act immediately before it's too late," and in perhaps the film’s most important section, profile key scientists who used to believe in climate alarm but have since converted to skepticism. Official Climate Hustle Site

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Parliamentary group warns that global fossil fuels could peak in less than 10 years


A report commissioned on behalf of a cross-party group of British MPs authored by a former UK government advisor, the first of its kind, says that industrial civilisation is currently on track to experience “an eventual collapse of production and living standards” in the next few decades if business-as-usual continues. http://limits2growth.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Jackson-and-Webster-2016-Limits-Revisited.pdf

The report published by the new All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Limits to Growth, which launched in the House of Commons on Tuesday evening, reviews the scientific merits of a controversial 1972 model by a team of MIT scientists, which forecasted a possible collapse of civilisation due to resource depletion.

“Humanity has changed the natural environment so profoundly that we may have created a new — and far more unpredictable — geological epoch, according to recent research. The relatively stable environment of the Holocene, an interglacial period that began about 10,000 years ago, has provided the conditions for human societies to develop and thrive. Now, however, the world has entered a new era known as the Anthropocene, where the activities of humans are the dominant influence on the atmosphere and environment.”

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Old People Explain Why They Couldn’t Care Less About Climate Change

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Why Our Brains Weren't Made To Deal With Climate Change
Why Our Brains Weren't Made To Deal With Climate Change

Many see the glacier's retreat as an ominous symbol of climate change. But not all. Shankar talks with tourists who are skeptical that climate change is even occurring. And so the question: Is there something about the human brain that makes it hard for us to grapple with climate change?

After returning from vacation, Shankar calls George Marshall, Director of Projects athttp://climateoutreach.org/ and author of Don't Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired to Ignore Climate Change, about the behavioral challenges and solutions to addressing climate change.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Viral Video of River Catching on Fire Prompts Call for Ban on Fracking
Viral Video of River Catching on Fire Prompts Call for Ban on Fracking

The Greens New South Wales mining spokesperson Jeremy Buckingham called on governments today to stop the spread of coal seam gas (CSG) and for the true impact of fugitive emissions to be independently assessed after the video of methane gas burning through the Condamine River in Queensland, Australia went viral with millions of views and global media coverage.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Climate Feedback brings the expertise of the scientific community into the world of online climate coverage to provide readers and authors with in-situ feedback about the content’s scientific credibility. http://climatefeedback.org/

Climate Feedback is a project born from the reality that we are at a critical moment in history, one in which important decisions about climate change must be made. It’s a project born from the understanding that in order for our democracies to choose the right courses of action, citizens must have access to scientifically accurate information. And it’s a project born from the belief that it’s the civic duty of scientific professionals to better inform their fellow citizens in their respective areas of expertise.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

India records its hottest day ever
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36339523

A city in India's Rajasthan state has broken the country's temperature records after registering 51C, the highest since records began, the weather office says.