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NC Considers Making Sea Level Rise Illegal
NC Considers Making Sea Level Rise Illegal | Plugged In, Scientific American Blog Network

Which, yes, is exactly like saying, do not predict tomorrow's weather based on radar images of a hurricane swirling offshore, moving west towards us with 60-mph winds and ten inches of rain. Predict the weather based on the last two weeks of fair weather with gentle breezes towards the east. Don't use radar and barometers; use the Farmer's Almanac and what grandpa remembers.

Things like marriage rules involve changing social mores and those who feel that certain types of marriage are wrong can be understood and even forgiven. They're certainly on the wrong side of history, but it's a social issue where emotion understandably holds sway over things like evidence.

But while the rising sea may engender emotion, it exists in a world of fact, of measurable evidence and predictable results, where scientists using their best methods have agreed on a reasonable – and conservative – estimate of a meter or more of rising seas in the coming century. In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gave a hesitant estimate of up to 59 centimeters of rise -but even two years later that estimate already appeared low and scientists began to expect a rise of a meter or more.

No matter in North Carolina. We've got resorts to build and we don't care what the rest of the ocean does – our sea isn't going to rise by more than 15.6 inches. Because otherwise it's against the law.
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Court Backs E.P.A. on Emissions Rules
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/27/science/earth/epa-emissions-rules-backed-by-court.html

WASHINGTON — A federal appeals court on Tuesday upheld a finding by the Environmental Protection Agency that heat-trapping gases from industry and vehicles endanger public health, dealing a decisive blow to companies and states that had sued to block agency rules.

A three-judge panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia declared that the agency was “unambiguously correct” that the Clean Air Act requires the federal government to impose limits once it has determined that emissions are causing harm.

The judges unanimously dismissed arguments from industry that the science of global warming was not well supported and that the agency had based its judgment on unreliable studies. “This is how science works,” the judges wrote. “The E.P.A. is not required to reprove the existence of the atom every time it approaches a scientific question.”
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The politics of carbon dioxide regulation have grown more partisan over the years. When Massachusetts won the decision in 2007, its governor was Mitt Romney. As the presumptive Republican nominee for president, he has since backed away from his earlier position that human-caused global warming is under way.

According to his Web site, one of his policy goals now is to amend the Clean Air Act, the critical law under which the E.P.A. is now acting, “to exclude carbon dioxide from its purview.”
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Coalition for Responsible Regulation Inc. v. Environmental Protection Agency
Code: 
http://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/52AC9DC9471D374685257A290052ACF6/$file/09-1322-1380690.pdf
 
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OMG! Drudge Headline!

10199


This US summer is 'what global warming looks like'
My Way News - This US summer is 'what global warming looks like'
 

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Glacier Break Creates Ice Island Twice Size of Manhattan
Glacier break creates ice island twice size of Manhattan

ScienceDaily (July 17, 2012) — An ice island twice the size of Manhattan has broken off from Greenland's Petermann Glacier, according to researchers at the University of Delaware and the Canadian Ice Service. The Petermann Glacier is one of the two largest glaciers left in Greenland connecting the great Greenland ice sheet with the ocean via a floating ice shelf.
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Global Warming's Terrifying New Math
Three simple numbers that add up to global catastrophe - and that make clear who the real enemy is
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719
 
Satellites See Unprecedented Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt
NASA - Satellites See Unprecedented Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt

Extent of surface melt over Greenland’s ice sheet on July 8 (left) and July 12 (right). Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12.
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Wei T, Yang S, Moore JC, et al. Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/07/16/1203282109.full.pdf

At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2°C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60-80%, developing countries about 20-40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3-2/3 (CESM 33-67%, BNU-ESM 35-65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2°C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.
 
Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R. Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice. (Submitted on 5 Apr 2012) http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1204/1204.1286.pdf

"Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3{\sigma}) warmer than climatology. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface in the period of climatology, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.
 
Reduction In Carbon Uptake During Turn Of The Century Drought In Western North America

The turn of the century drought in western North America was the most severe drought over the past 800 years, significantly reducing the modest carbon sink normally present in this region. Projections indicate that drought events of this length and severity will be commonplace through the end of the twenty-first century. Even worse, projections suggest that this drought will become the wet end of a drier hydroclimate period in the latter half of the twenty-first century. These drought events, apart from short-lived episodes of abundant precipitation, are projected to persist for most of the present century as the first megadrought of the instrumental era.

Decreases in crop productivity, primary production, LE, largebasin runoff and CO2 uptake by the land surface associated with the turn of the century drought could become permanent conditions before the end of the century, consistent with a twenty-first century megadrought.


Schwalm CR, Williams CA, Schaefer K, et al. Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America. Nature Geosci 2012;5(8):551-6. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n8/full/ngeo1529.html

Fossil fuel emissions aside, temperate North America is a net sink of carbon dioxide at present. Year-to-year variations in this carbon sink are linked to variations in hydroclimate that affect net ecosystem productivity. The severity and incidence of climatic extremes, including drought, have increased as a result of climate warming. Here, we examine the effect of the turn of the century drought in western North America on carbon uptake in the region, using reanalysis data, remote sensing observations and data from global monitoring networks. We show that the area-integrated strength of the western North American carbon sink declined by 30–298?Tg C? yr?1 during the 2000–2004 drought. We further document a pronounced drying of the terrestrial biosphere during this period, together with a reduction in river discharge and a loss of cropland productivity. We compare our findings with previous palaeoclimate reconstructions and show that the last drought of this magnitude occurred more than 800 years ago. Based on projected changes in precipitation and drought severity, we estimate that the present mid-latitude carbon sink of 177–623 Tg C yr?1 in western North America could disappear by the end of the century.
 
Georgescu M, Moustaoui M, Mahalov A, Dudhia J. Summer-time climate impacts of projected megapolitan expansion in Arizona. Nature Clim Change;advance online publication. Summer-time climate impacts of projected megapolitan expansion in Arizona : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

Efforts characterizing the changing climate of southwestern North America by focusing exclusively on the impacts of increasing levels of long-lived greenhouse gases omit fundamental elements with similar order-of-magnitude impacts as those owing to large-scale climate change1, 2. Using a suite of ensemble-based, multiyear simulations, here we show the intensification of observationally based urban-induced phenomena and demonstrate that the direct summer-time climate effects of the most rapidly expanding megapolitan region in the USA—Arizona’s Sun Corridor—are considerable. Although urban-induced warming approaches 4?°C locally for the maximum expansion scenario, impacts depend on the particular trajectory of development. Cool-roof implementation reduces simulated warming by about 50%, yet decreases in summer-time evapotranspiration remain at least as large as those from urban expansion without this mode of adaptation. The contribution of urban-induced warming relative to mid- and end-of-century climate change illustrates strong dependence on built environment expansion scenarios and emissions pathways. Our results highlight the direct climate impacts that result from newly emerging megapolitan regions and their significance for overcoming present challenges concerning sustainable development3, 4.
 
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