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Climate Change
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Global Analysis - June 2014
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/6
• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2014 was the highest on record for the month, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 0.95°C (1.71°F) above the 20th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), the seventh highest for June on record.
• For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20thcentury average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record and the highest departure from average for any month.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.67°C (1.21°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F), tying with 2002 as the third warmest such period on record.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/6
• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2014 was the highest on record for the month, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 0.95°C (1.71°F) above the 20th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), the seventh highest for June on record.
• For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20thcentury average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record and the highest departure from average for any month.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.67°C (1.21°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F), tying with 2002 as the third warmest such period on record.
Eshel G, Shepon A, Makov T, Milo R. Land, irrigation water, greenhouse gas, and reactive nitrogen burdens of meat, eggs, and dairy production in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/07/17/1402183111.abstract
Livestock production impacts air and water quality, ocean health, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on regional to global scales and it is the largest use of land globally. Quantifying the environmental impacts of the various livestock categories, mostly arising from feed production, is thus a grand challenge of sustainability science. Here, we quantify land, irrigation water, and reactive nitrogen (Nr) impacts due to feed production, and recast published full life cycle GHG emission estimates, for each of the major animal-based categories in the US diet.
Our calculations reveal that the environmental costs per consumed calorie of dairy, poultry, pork, and eggs are mutually comparable (to within a factor of 2), but strikingly lower than the impacts of beef. Beef production requires 28, 11, 5, and 6 times more land, irrigation water, GHG, and Nr, respectively, than the average of the other livestock categories. Preliminary analysis of three staple plant foods shows two- to sixfold lower land, GHG, and Nr requirements than those of the nonbeef animal-derived calories, whereas irrigation requirements are comparable.
Our analysis is based on the best data currently available, but follow-up studies are necessary to improve parameter estimates and fill remaining knowledge gaps. Data imperfections notwithstanding, the key conclusion—that beef production demands about 1 order of magnitude more resources than alternative livestock categories—is robust under existing uncertainties. The study thus elucidates the multiple environmental benefits of potential, easy-to-implement dietary changes, and highlights the uniquely high resource demands of beef.
Livestock production impacts air and water quality, ocean health, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on regional to global scales and it is the largest use of land globally. Quantifying the environmental impacts of the various livestock categories, mostly arising from feed production, is thus a grand challenge of sustainability science. Here, we quantify land, irrigation water, and reactive nitrogen (Nr) impacts due to feed production, and recast published full life cycle GHG emission estimates, for each of the major animal-based categories in the US diet.
Our calculations reveal that the environmental costs per consumed calorie of dairy, poultry, pork, and eggs are mutually comparable (to within a factor of 2), but strikingly lower than the impacts of beef. Beef production requires 28, 11, 5, and 6 times more land, irrigation water, GHG, and Nr, respectively, than the average of the other livestock categories. Preliminary analysis of three staple plant foods shows two- to sixfold lower land, GHG, and Nr requirements than those of the nonbeef animal-derived calories, whereas irrigation requirements are comparable.
Our analysis is based on the best data currently available, but follow-up studies are necessary to improve parameter estimates and fill remaining knowledge gaps. Data imperfections notwithstanding, the key conclusion—that beef production demands about 1 order of magnitude more resources than alternative livestock categories—is robust under existing uncertainties. The study thus elucidates the multiple environmental benefits of potential, easy-to-implement dietary changes, and highlights the uniquely high resource demands of beef.
Error discovered in Antarctic sea-ice record
Misalignment in data between satellites may be fixed now, but went undetected for years.
http://www.nature.com/news/error-discovered-in-antarctic-sea-ice-record-1.15605
Rising temperatures have caused the amount of Arctic sea ice to shrink dramatically since global observations began in the 1970s. But on the other side of the world, sea ice in Antarctica was at first steady — and then began to slowly expand in the mid-2000s.
Some researchers now say that the Antarctic trend may have been inflated by an error in the decades-long record of satellite observations of Southern Hemisphere sea ice. Scientists process data from microwave-sensing satellites using one of two standard algorithms to distinguish bright sea ice from dark open water.
Researchers led by Ian Eisenman, a climatologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, California, discovered a mismatch between an older and a newer version of the same NASA sea-ice data set that occurred when a satellite sensor was replaced in December 1991. Such “jumps” in data are caused by slight differences in the satellites' sensitivity, and are usually corrected when scientists process the data collected by the probes.
But the error that Eisenman identified — reported July 22 in The Cryosphere — wasn't obvious. He found it only by comparing an old version of the data set with a 2008 version, and says that the data were too noisy to tell which version had been mishandled.
Misalignment in data between satellites may be fixed now, but went undetected for years.
http://www.nature.com/news/error-discovered-in-antarctic-sea-ice-record-1.15605
Rising temperatures have caused the amount of Arctic sea ice to shrink dramatically since global observations began in the 1970s. But on the other side of the world, sea ice in Antarctica was at first steady — and then began to slowly expand in the mid-2000s.
Some researchers now say that the Antarctic trend may have been inflated by an error in the decades-long record of satellite observations of Southern Hemisphere sea ice. Scientists process data from microwave-sensing satellites using one of two standard algorithms to distinguish bright sea ice from dark open water.
Researchers led by Ian Eisenman, a climatologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, California, discovered a mismatch between an older and a newer version of the same NASA sea-ice data set that occurred when a satellite sensor was replaced in December 1991. Such “jumps” in data are caused by slight differences in the satellites' sensitivity, and are usually corrected when scientists process the data collected by the probes.
But the error that Eisenman identified — reported July 22 in The Cryosphere — wasn't obvious. He found it only by comparing an old version of the data set with a 2008 version, and says that the data were too noisy to tell which version had been mishandled.
Zickfeld K, Eby M, Weaver AJ, et al. Long-Term Climate Change Commitment and Reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison. Journal of Climate 2014;26(16):5782-809. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00584.1
This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales.
All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6–6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5.
Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5–8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs.
Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100–1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.
This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales.
All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6–6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5.
Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5–8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs.
Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100–1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.
Human dynamics of climate change
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide/climate-change/impacts/human-dynamics
The impacts of climate change will not be experienced in isolation, but will affect humans in the context of the way we live
The 'Human dynamics of climate change' map aims to illustrate some of the impacts of climate and population change in the context of a globalised world.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-guide/climate-change/impacts/human-dynamics
The impacts of climate change will not be experienced in isolation, but will affect humans in the context of the way we live
The 'Human dynamics of climate change' map aims to illustrate some of the impacts of climate and population change in the context of a globalised world.
Troubled waters: the Mekong River crisis
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/1add7210-0d3d-11e4-bcb2-00144feabdc0.html#slide0
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/1add7210-0d3d-11e4-bcb2-00144feabdc0.html#slide0
Harvard historian: strategy of climate science denial groups 'extremely successful'
Professor Naomi Oreskes says actions of climate denialists are laying the foundations for the government interventions they fear the most
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...te-science-denial-groups-extremely-successful
Professor Naomi Oreskes says actions of climate denialists are laying the foundations for the government interventions they fear the most
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...te-science-denial-groups-extremely-successful
The study found that synchronization of the two regional systems began as climate was gradually warming. After synchronization, the researchers detected wild variability that amplified the changes and accelerated into an abrupt warming event of several degrees within a few decades.
Praetorius SK, Mix AC. Synchronization of North Pacific and Greenland climates preceded abrupt deglacial warming. Science 2014;345(6195):444-8.http://www.sciencemag.org/content/345/6195/444.abstract
Some proposed mechanisms for transmission of major climate change events between the North Pacific and North Atlantic predict opposing patterns of variations; others suggest synchronization. Resolving this conflict has implications for regulation of poleward heat transport and global climate change. New multidecadal-resolution foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) reveal sudden shifts between intervals of synchroneity and asynchroneity with the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) δ18O record over the past 18,000 years.
Synchronization of these regions occurred 15,500 to 11,000 years ago, just prior to and throughout the most abrupt climate transitions of the last 20,000 years, suggesting that dynamic coupling of North Pacific and North Atlantic climates may lead to critical transitions in Earth’s climate system.
Praetorius SK, Mix AC. Synchronization of North Pacific and Greenland climates preceded abrupt deglacial warming. Science 2014;345(6195):444-8.http://www.sciencemag.org/content/345/6195/444.abstract
Some proposed mechanisms for transmission of major climate change events between the North Pacific and North Atlantic predict opposing patterns of variations; others suggest synchronization. Resolving this conflict has implications for regulation of poleward heat transport and global climate change. New multidecadal-resolution foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) reveal sudden shifts between intervals of synchroneity and asynchroneity with the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) δ18O record over the past 18,000 years.
Synchronization of these regions occurred 15,500 to 11,000 years ago, just prior to and throughout the most abrupt climate transitions of the last 20,000 years, suggesting that dynamic coupling of North Pacific and North Atlantic climates may lead to critical transitions in Earth’s climate system.
Is the climate dragon awakening?
http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=1329
Using a vast and credible set of climate measurements and physics, James Hansen’s Storms of My Grandchildren makes the case that humans overloading the atmosphere with carbon would eventually trigger the release of vast additional carbon stores locked in shallow sea gas hydrates and from Arctic tundra.
In my professional opinion as a climatologist with more than https://sites.google.com/site/jboxgreenland/publications, after 12 years of university education focused on atmospheric and oceanic science, and followed by 10 years of university lecturing on micro and mesoscale meteorology theory and instrumentation, Hansen’s warnings should be met with an aggressive atmospheric decarbonization program. We have been too long on a trajectory pointed at an unmanageable climate calamity; runaway climate heating. If we don’t get atmospheric carbon down and cool the Arctic, the climate physics and recent observations tell me we will probably trigger the release of these vast carbon stores, dooming our kids’ to a hothouse Earth. That’s a tough statement to read when your worry budget is already full as most of ours is.
What’s the take home message, if you ask me? Because elevated atmospheric carbon from fossil fuel burning is the trigger mechanism poking the climate dragon. The trajectory we’re on is to awaken a runaway climate heating that will ravage global agricultural systems leading to mass famine, conflict. Sea level rise will be a small problem by comparison. We simply MUST lower atmospheric carbon emissions. This should start with limiting the burning of fossil fuels from conventional sources; chiefly coal, followed by tar sands [block the pipeline]; reduce fossil fuel use elsewhere for example in liquid transportation fuels; engage in a massive reforestation program to have side benefits of sustainable timber, reduced desertification, animal habitat, aquaculture; and redirect fossil fuel subsidies to renewable energy subsidies. This is an all hands on deck moment. We’re in the age of consequences.
http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=1329
Using a vast and credible set of climate measurements and physics, James Hansen’s Storms of My Grandchildren makes the case that humans overloading the atmosphere with carbon would eventually trigger the release of vast additional carbon stores locked in shallow sea gas hydrates and from Arctic tundra.
In my professional opinion as a climatologist with more than https://sites.google.com/site/jboxgreenland/publications, after 12 years of university education focused on atmospheric and oceanic science, and followed by 10 years of university lecturing on micro and mesoscale meteorology theory and instrumentation, Hansen’s warnings should be met with an aggressive atmospheric decarbonization program. We have been too long on a trajectory pointed at an unmanageable climate calamity; runaway climate heating. If we don’t get atmospheric carbon down and cool the Arctic, the climate physics and recent observations tell me we will probably trigger the release of these vast carbon stores, dooming our kids’ to a hothouse Earth. That’s a tough statement to read when your worry budget is already full as most of ours is.
What’s the take home message, if you ask me? Because elevated atmospheric carbon from fossil fuel burning is the trigger mechanism poking the climate dragon. The trajectory we’re on is to awaken a runaway climate heating that will ravage global agricultural systems leading to mass famine, conflict. Sea level rise will be a small problem by comparison. We simply MUST lower atmospheric carbon emissions. This should start with limiting the burning of fossil fuels from conventional sources; chiefly coal, followed by tar sands [block the pipeline]; reduce fossil fuel use elsewhere for example in liquid transportation fuels; engage in a massive reforestation program to have side benefits of sustainable timber, reduced desertification, animal habitat, aquaculture; and redirect fossil fuel subsidies to renewable energy subsidies. This is an all hands on deck moment. We’re in the age of consequences.
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An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security
October 2003
http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/v1003/readings/Pentagon.pdf
Imagining the Unthinkable
The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security.
We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.
We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately.
Executive Summary
There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projected to be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potential to be manageable for most nations. Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean’s thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production. With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment.
The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly, with persistent changes in the atmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit in a single decade. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that altered climatic patterns could last for as much as a century, as they did when the ocean conveyor collapsed 8,200 years ago, or, at the extreme, could last as long as 1,000 years as they did during the Younger Dryas, which began about 12,700 years ago.
In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100- year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions:
• Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asia and North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe
• Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in key areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.
• Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and eastern North America.
• Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.
The report explores how such an abrupt climate change scenario could potentially de-stabilize the geo-political environment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and even war due to resource constraints such as:
1) Food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural production
2) Decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shifted precipitation patters, causing more frequent floods and droughts
3) Disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess
As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and the goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor.
This scenario poses new challenges for the United States, and suggests several steps to be taken:
• Improve predictive climate models to allow investigation of a wider range of scenarios and to anticipate how and where changes could occur
• Assemble comprehensive predictive models of the potential impacts of abrupt climate change to improve projections of how climate could influence food, water, and energy
• Create vulnerability metrics to anticipate which countries are most vulnerable to climate change and therefore, could contribute materially to an increasingly disorderly and potentially violent world.
• Identify no-regrets strategies such as enhancing capabilities for water management
• Rehearse adaptive responses
• Explore local implications
• Explore geo-engineering options that control the climate.
There are some indications today that global warming has reached the threshold where the thermohaline circulation could start to be significantly impacted. These indications include observations documenting that the North Atlantic is increasingly being freshened by melting glaciers, increased precipitation, and fresh water runoff making it substantially less salty over the past 40 years.
This report suggests that, because of the potentially dire consequences, the risk of abrupt climate change, although uncertain and quite possibly small, should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a U.S. national security concern.
October 2003
http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/v1003/readings/Pentagon.pdf
Imagining the Unthinkable
The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security.
We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.
We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately.
Executive Summary
There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projected to be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potential to be manageable for most nations. Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean’s thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production. With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment.
The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly, with persistent changes in the atmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit in a single decade. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that altered climatic patterns could last for as much as a century, as they did when the ocean conveyor collapsed 8,200 years ago, or, at the extreme, could last as long as 1,000 years as they did during the Younger Dryas, which began about 12,700 years ago.
In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100- year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions:
• Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asia and North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe
• Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in key areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.
• Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and eastern North America.
• Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.
The report explores how such an abrupt climate change scenario could potentially de-stabilize the geo-political environment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and even war due to resource constraints such as:
1) Food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural production
2) Decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shifted precipitation patters, causing more frequent floods and droughts
3) Disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess
As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and the goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor.
This scenario poses new challenges for the United States, and suggests several steps to be taken:
• Improve predictive climate models to allow investigation of a wider range of scenarios and to anticipate how and where changes could occur
• Assemble comprehensive predictive models of the potential impacts of abrupt climate change to improve projections of how climate could influence food, water, and energy
• Create vulnerability metrics to anticipate which countries are most vulnerable to climate change and therefore, could contribute materially to an increasingly disorderly and potentially violent world.
• Identify no-regrets strategies such as enhancing capabilities for water management
• Rehearse adaptive responses
• Explore local implications
• Explore geo-engineering options that control the climate.
There are some indications today that global warming has reached the threshold where the thermohaline circulation could start to be significantly impacted. These indications include observations documenting that the North Atlantic is increasingly being freshened by melting glaciers, increased precipitation, and fresh water runoff making it substantially less salty over the past 40 years.
This report suggests that, because of the potentially dire consequences, the risk of abrupt climate change, although uncertain and quite possibly small, should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a U.S. national security concern.
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Two new mysterious craters emerge in Siberia, deepening giant hole saga
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-emerge-in-siberia-deepening-giant-hole-saga/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-emerge-in-siberia-deepening-giant-hole-saga/
Observing and investigating
http://www.swerus-c3.geo.su.se/index.php/oerjans-blog-leg-1/170-observing-and-investigating
We are observing and investigating methane releases on the East Siberian Arctic Ocean. For 72 hours now, we have been in the thick of extensive investigations of methane releases from the outer Laptev Sea system. The SWERUS-C3 expedition is really well equipped to for detect the release of methane. As we steam along, we continuously measure methane levels in air, via inlets placed at a new meteorology mast at the very bow of the Oden, and in surface seawater, through a specially-constructed seawater intake (delivering water from an intake at 8 m depth underneath the hull of Oden directly to the permanent shipboard laboratory).
http://www.swerus-c3.geo.su.se/index.php/oerjans-blog-leg-1/170-observing-and-investigating
We are observing and investigating methane releases on the East Siberian Arctic Ocean. For 72 hours now, we have been in the thick of extensive investigations of methane releases from the outer Laptev Sea system. The SWERUS-C3 expedition is really well equipped to for detect the release of methane. As we steam along, we continuously measure methane levels in air, via inlets placed at a new meteorology mast at the very bow of the Oden, and in surface seawater, through a specially-constructed seawater intake (delivering water from an intake at 8 m depth underneath the hull of Oden directly to the permanent shipboard laboratory).
Are Siberia’s methane blow-holes the first warning sign of unstoppable climate change?
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/are-siberias-methane-blowholes-the-first-warning-sign-of-unstoppable-climate-change/story-fnjwvztl-1227006746397
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/are-siberias-methane-blowholes-the-first-warning-sign-of-unstoppable-climate-change/story-fnjwvztl-1227006746397
More than 2.5m Sea Level Rise by 2040?
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/07/more-than-25m-sea-level-rise-by-2040.html
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/07/more-than-25m-sea-level-rise-by-2040.html
Franks PJ, Royer DL, Beerling DJ, et al. New constraints on atmospheric CO2 concentration for the Phanerozoic. Geophysical Research Letters. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060457/abstract
Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) for the Phanerozoic Eon is estimated from proxies and geochemical carbon cycle models. Most estimates come with large, sometimes unbounded uncertainty.
Here, we calculate tightly constrained estimates of ca using a universal equation for leaf gas exchange, with key variables obtained directly from the carbon isotope composition and stomatal anatomy of fossil leaves.
Our new estimates, validated against ice cores and direct measurements of ca, are less than 1000 ppm for most of the Phanerozoic, from the Devonian to the present, coincident with the appearance and global proliferation of forests. Uncertainties, obtained from Monte Carlo simulations, are typically less than for ca estimates from other approaches.
These results provide critical new empirical support for the emerging view that large (~2000–3000 ppm), long-term swings in ca do not characterize the post-Devonian and that Earth's long-term climate sensitivity to ca is greater than originally thought.
Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) for the Phanerozoic Eon is estimated from proxies and geochemical carbon cycle models. Most estimates come with large, sometimes unbounded uncertainty.
Here, we calculate tightly constrained estimates of ca using a universal equation for leaf gas exchange, with key variables obtained directly from the carbon isotope composition and stomatal anatomy of fossil leaves.
Our new estimates, validated against ice cores and direct measurements of ca, are less than 1000 ppm for most of the Phanerozoic, from the Devonian to the present, coincident with the appearance and global proliferation of forests. Uncertainties, obtained from Monte Carlo simulations, are typically less than for ca estimates from other approaches.
These results provide critical new empirical support for the emerging view that large (~2000–3000 ppm), long-term swings in ca do not characterize the post-Devonian and that Earth's long-term climate sensitivity to ca is greater than originally thought.
Paul Ryan Says 'Climate Change Occurs No Matter What'
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/30/paul-ryan-climate-change_n_5635058.html
While Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) believes the Earth's climate is changing, he doesn't think mankind should do anything about it.
"Climate change occurs no matter what," Ryan said Wednesday, as quoted by CNN. "The question is, can and should the federal government do something about it?"
"And I would argue the federal government, with all its tax and regulatory schemes, can't. And all it will do is end up hurting our country, our people and especially low-income individuals," he added.
Addressing reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast in Washington, D.C., the House Budget Committee chairman said he opposed newly proposedEnvironmental Protection Agency rules that would cut power plant carbon dioxide emissions by 30 percent by 2030.
"So I don't see a solution here," he said, according to The Hill. "I see an excuse to grow government, raise taxes and slow down economic growth."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/30/paul-ryan-climate-change_n_5635058.html
While Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) believes the Earth's climate is changing, he doesn't think mankind should do anything about it.
"Climate change occurs no matter what," Ryan said Wednesday, as quoted by CNN. "The question is, can and should the federal government do something about it?"
"And I would argue the federal government, with all its tax and regulatory schemes, can't. And all it will do is end up hurting our country, our people and especially low-income individuals," he added.
Addressing reporters at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast in Washington, D.C., the House Budget Committee chairman said he opposed newly proposedEnvironmental Protection Agency rules that would cut power plant carbon dioxide emissions by 30 percent by 2030.
"So I don't see a solution here," he said, according to The Hill. "I see an excuse to grow government, raise taxes and slow down economic growth."
whodatnation
New Member
If we would stop manipulating the damn climate with crap like Monsanto's chemtrails and the HAARP project the Earth would just naturally go about it's own life cycles. This includes times of cooling off and heating up.
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