Sea ice shrinks in step with carbon emissions
Sea ice shrinks in step with carbon emissions | Science
The jet fuel you burned on that flight from New York City to London? Say goodbye to 1 square meter of Arctic sea ice.
Since at least the 1960s, the shrinkage of the ice cap over the Arctic Ocean has advanced in lockstep with the amount of greenhouse gases humans have sent into the atmosphere, according to a study published this week in Science. Every additional metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) puffed into the atmosphere appears to cost the Arctic another 3 square meters of summer sea ice—a simple and direct observational link that has been sitting in data beneath scientists' noses. “It's really basic,” says co-author Dirk Notz, a sea ice expert at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. “In retrospect, it sounds like something someone should have done 20 years ago.”
If both the linear relationship and current emission trends hold into the future, the study suggests the Arctic will be ice free by 2045—far sooner than some climate models predict. The study suggests that those models are underestimating how warm the Arctic has already become and how fast that melting will proceed. And it gives the public and policymakers a concrete illustration of the consequences of burning fossil fuels, says Edward Maibach, director of the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. “Concrete information is always more engaging than abstract information,” he says.
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Notz D, Stroeve J. Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission. Science. Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission | Science
Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer.
Since climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we here use a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative CO2 emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record.
The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 m2 of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO2 emission.
Based on this sensitivity, Arctic sea-ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 Gt of CO2 emissions.
Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled Transient Climate Response.
Sea ice shrinks in step with carbon emissions | Science
The jet fuel you burned on that flight from New York City to London? Say goodbye to 1 square meter of Arctic sea ice.
Since at least the 1960s, the shrinkage of the ice cap over the Arctic Ocean has advanced in lockstep with the amount of greenhouse gases humans have sent into the atmosphere, according to a study published this week in Science. Every additional metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) puffed into the atmosphere appears to cost the Arctic another 3 square meters of summer sea ice—a simple and direct observational link that has been sitting in data beneath scientists' noses. “It's really basic,” says co-author Dirk Notz, a sea ice expert at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. “In retrospect, it sounds like something someone should have done 20 years ago.”
If both the linear relationship and current emission trends hold into the future, the study suggests the Arctic will be ice free by 2045—far sooner than some climate models predict. The study suggests that those models are underestimating how warm the Arctic has already become and how fast that melting will proceed. And it gives the public and policymakers a concrete illustration of the consequences of burning fossil fuels, says Edward Maibach, director of the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. “Concrete information is always more engaging than abstract information,” he says.
…
Notz D, Stroeve J. Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission. Science. Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission | Science
Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer.
Since climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we here use a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative CO2 emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record.
The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 m2 of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO2 emission.
Based on this sensitivity, Arctic sea-ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 Gt of CO2 emissions.
Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled Transient Climate Response.
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