Climate Change

[Michael Scally MD]

Academic freedom for sale
http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/...om-for-sale/KC5jr8K6FVd9RpOxmFB6cI/story.html

UPHOLDING INTELLECTUAL freedom doesn’t have to mean tiptoeing around questionable ethical choices or iffy data.

Recently, the Globe and other publications reported that Willie Soon, a climate-change skeptic at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, had failed to tell some of the journals considering his work that some of it had been funded by fossil-fuel interests — a fact highly relevant to evaluating it. While Soon has benefited from the prestige conferred by the Harvard and Smithsonian names, the Center for Astrophysics has so far been gentle in handling what looks like an ethical lapse — partly for fear of interfering with Soon’s intellectual freedom.

In fact, such freedom is most vital for those who, like Soon, do research that rubs their colleagues the wrong way. But it doesn’t mean researchers should never have to answer for who funds them or how they conduct themselves. “Academic freedom” isn’t an all-purpose excuse, behind which anything goes. And for institutions, the term shouldn’t be bureaucratese for “looking the other way.”

 

[Michael Scally MD]

First Direct Observation Of Carbon Dioxide's Increasing Greenhouse Effect At Earth's Surface

Scientists have observed an increase in carbon dioxide’s greenhouse effect at the Earth’s surface for the first time. They measured atmospheric carbon dioxide’s increasing capacity to absorb thermal radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface over an eleven-year period at two locations in North America. They attributed this upward trend to rising CO2 levels from fossil fuel emissions.

Feldman DR, Collins WD, Gero PJ, Torn MS, Mlawer EJ, et al. Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO2 from 2000 to 2010. Nature.advance online publication. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature14240.html

The climatic impact of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is usually quantified in terms of radiative forcing, calculated as the difference between estimates of the Earth’s radiation field from pre-industrial and present-day concentrations of these gases.

Radiative transfer models calculate that the increase in CO2 since 1750 corresponds to a global annual-mean radiative forcing at the tropopause of 1.82 ± 0.19 W m−2 (ref. 2). However, despite widespread scientific discussion and modelling of the climate impacts of well-mixed greenhouse gases, there is little direct observational evidence of the radiative impact of increasing atmospheric CO2.

Here we present observationally based evidence of clear-sky CO2 surface radiative forcing that is directly attributable to the increase, between 2000 and 2010, of 22 parts per million atmospheric CO2.

The time series of this forcing at the two locations—the Southern Great Plains and the North Slope of Alaska—are derived from Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer spectra together with ancillary measurements and thoroughly corroborated radiative transfer calculations.

The time series both show statistically significant trends of 0.2 W m−2 per decade (with respective uncertainties of ±0.06 W m−2 per decade and ±0.07 W m−2 per decade) and have seasonal ranges of 0.1–0.2 W m−2. This is approximately ten per cent of the trend in downwelling longwave radiation.

These results confirm theoretical predictions of the atmospheric greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic emissions, and provide empirical evidence of how rising CO2 levels, mediated by temporal variations due to photosynthesis and respiration, are affecting the surface energy balance.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

van der Linden SL, Leiserowitz AA, Feinberg GD, Maibach EW. The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change as a Gateway Belief: Experimental Evidence. PLoS ONE. 2015;10(2):e0118489. http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0118489

There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally.

Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy.

This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a “gateway belief model” (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action.

In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

"the strongest evidence to date" on effect of "97% consensus" messaging
http://www.culturalcognition.net/bl...ce-to-date-on-effect-of-97-consensus-mes.html

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

What happened to the lobbyists who tried to reshape the US view of climate change?
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...ists-who-tried-reshape-us-view-climate-change

In 1998 major fossil fuel companies put $2m behind a plan that would effectively fuel the fires of climate science scepticism among the American public. We reveal where the 12 people behind that plan are now.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

A February First: CO2 Levels Pass 400 PPM Milestone
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/400-ppm-co2-february-2015-18710

With only one day left in the month, it’s basically official: February’s average carbon dioxide level will be above 400 parts per million, a marker of how much of the greenhouse gas is accumulating in the atmosphere thanks to human emissions.

Last year, the monthly average didn’t go above the 400 parts per million (ppm) mark until April, which was the first month in human history with carbon dioxide (CO2) levels that high. Levels stayed that high for a full three months, and they are likely to stay that high for many more this year.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Senator Whitehouse Rips 'The Senator With The Snowball'
http://crooksandliars.com/2015/02/senator-whitehouse-rips-senator-snowball

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Meanwhile in Oklahoma, record breaking… warmth
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...meanwhile-in-oklahoma-record-breaking-warmth/

This is in fact the first three-day stretch in January that Oklahoma City has been above 73 degrees. And the last time Oklahoma City broke daily high temperature records three days in a row in January was 1911.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Looming Warming Spurt Could Reshape Climate Debate
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warming-spurt-looms-will-it-change-minds-on-climate-change-18716

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Climate Oscillations and the Global Warming Faux Pause
http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...cillations-and-the-global-warming-faux-pause/

 

[CensoredBoardsSuck]

The “Pause” in Global Warming Is Finally Explained
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com...pause-in-global-warming-is-finally-explained/

 

[Michael Scally MD]

The Film That Is Going To Change China
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/3/2/china/film-going-change-china

When Rachel Carson wrote ‘Silent Spring’ in 1962, it brought environmental concerns home to tens of millions of ordinary Americans. It led to an overhaul of the national pesticide policy, resulting in the banning of DTT and other forms of synthetic pesticides.

The book was a clarion call to action for environmental activists in the 1960s. The powerful book has been widely credited for shaping the US and global environmental policies for decades. Over the weekend and behind the Great Firewall of China, a leading investigative reporter Chai Jing produced a stunning documentary on the smog problem that could one day rival the impact of “silent spring” as the turning point for the environmental movement in China.

The 143-minute documentary was viewed more than 100 million times in little over two days. It was viewed 126 million times on Tencent’s popular video site alone and it has completely galvanised the country’s attention. Chai’s documentary film was the most discussed topic on the country’s social media platforms and there were 280 million posts relating to her film “Under the Dome” on Sina Weibo, a micro-blogging site.


Pollution Documentary ‘Under the Dome’ Blankets Chinese Internet

A new documentary on the pall blanketing China’s skies by a former state television reporter swiftly commandeered the attention of tens of millions online over the weekend. http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/...ary-under-the-dome-blankets-chinese-internet/

Titled “Under the Dome,” the film is an impassioned production by Chai Jing, a well-known journalist who left China Central Television last year shortly after the birth of her first child.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

BBC’s Climate Change by Numbers supports big risk in place of big facts
https://theconversation.com/bbcs-cl...supports-big-risk-in-place-of-big-facts-38193

The BBC is about to screen its first climate change-dedicated documentary in some years. The show, Climate Change by Numbers, is all about the statistics at the heart of the effort to understand the scale and pace of human influence on our climate. Three mathematicians – Hannah Fry, Norman Fenton and David Spiegelhalter – explore the background to three numbers:

• 0.85˚C – The amount of warming the planet has undergone since 1880.
• 95% – The degree of certainty climate scientists have that at least half the recent warming is man-made.
• 1 trillion tonnes – The total amount of carbon we can afford to burn – ever – in order to stay below “dangerous levels” of climate change.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Survivable IPCC projections are based on science fiction - the reality is much worse
http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_a...cience_fiction_the_reality_is_much_worse.html

The IPCC's 'Representative Concentration Pathways' are based on fantasy technology that must draw massive volumes of CO2 out of the atmosphere late this century, writes Nick Breeze - an unjustified hope that conceals a very bleak future for Earth, and humanity.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Bank of England warns of financial risk from fossil fuel investments
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...f-financial-risk-from-fossil-fuel-investments


Is the Environment a Moral Cause?
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/01/opinion/sunday/is-the-environment-a-moral-cause.html

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Carbon crash, solar dawn: Deutsche Bank on why solar has already won
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/car...tsche-bank-on-why-solar-has-already-won-51105

Deutsche Bank has produced another major report that suggests solar will become the dominant electricity source around the world as it beats conventional fuels, generates $5 trillion in revenue over the next 15 years, and displaces large amounts of fossil fuels.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Drought-Stricken São Paulo Battles Dengue Fever Outbreak http://www.wsj.com/articles/drought-stricken-sao-paulo-battles-dengue-fever-outbreak-1425420508

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

If enough of us decide that climate change is a crisis worthy of Marshall Plan levels of response, then it will become one
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/06/dont-look-away-now-the-climate-crisis-needs-you