Climate Change

Farewell to the man who invented 'climate change’

Christopher Booker
05 Dec 2015

A very odd thing happened last weekend. The death was announced of the man who, in the past 40 years, has arguably been more influential on global politics than any other single individual. Yet the world scarcely noticed.

Had it not been for this man, we would not last week have seen 150 heads of government joining 40,000 delegates in Paris for that mammoth climate conference: the 21st such get-together since, in 1992, he masterminded the Rio “Earth Summit”, the largest political gathering in history. Yet few people even know his name.

Some years back, when I was researching for a book called The Real Global Warming Disaster, charting how the late-20th-century panic over climate change came about, few things surprised me more than to discover the absolutely central role played in the whole story by a Canadian socialist multimillionaire, Maurice Strong.

During the Second World War, having emerged from humble origins in the Great Depression, Strong became convinced that the new United Nations should become a world government, dedicated to ensuring that the wealth enjoyed by the richer countries of the West should be spread out around the world’s underprivileged majority.

maurice-111_3519073b.jpg
Maurice Strong: he established the UN?s environmental agenda (Canadian Press/AP)

In the Sixties, having become very rich himself from Canada’s oil industry, Strong came to see that the key to his vision was “environmentalism”, the one cause the UN could harness to make itself a truly powerful world government.

A superb political operator, in 1972 he set up a UN “Environment Conference” in Stockholm, to declare that the Earth’s resources were the common inheritance of all mankind. They should no longer be exploited for the benefit of only a few countries, at the expense of poorer countries across the globe.

To pursue this, he became founding director of a new agency, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), and in the Eighties he took up the cause of a tiny group of international meteorologists who had come to believe that the world faced catastrophic warming. In 1988, UNEP sponsored this little group into setting up the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In 1992, now allied with the IPCC, Strong pulled off his greatest coup when he set up another new body, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to stage that colossal “Earth Summit” over which he presided in Rio, arranging for it to be attended not only by 108 world leaders and 100,000 others but also by 20,000 UN-funded “green activists”.

It is the UNFCCC which in effect has dictated the global climate change agenda ever since. Almost yearly it has staged huge conferences, notably those at Kyoto (1997), Copenhagen (2009) and the present one in Paris. And all along it has been Strong’s ideology, enshrined at Rio in “Agenda 21”, which has continued to shape the entire process, centred on the principle that the richer developed countries must pay for a problem they created, to the financial benefit of all those “developing countries” that have been its main victims.

In 2005, Strong was caught having been illicitly paid $1 million from the UN’s Oil for Food programme, supposedly set up to allow Saddam Hussein to pay in oil to feed starving Iraqis. He retired to a flat in Beijing, where he had been close to China’s Communist leaders back to Mao. It was from there that he returned home to Canada to die,on November 27.

To this day, global climate policy is still shaped by Strong’s Agenda 21, as was highlighted last February when Christiana Figueres, the Costa Rican Marxist now head of the UNFCCC and organiser of the Paris conference, urged that the West should give “$1 trillion a year” to the “developing” world.

But the wonderful irony is that the reason why Paris will fail, like Copenhagen before it, is that those “developing countries”, led by China and India – now the world’s first and third largest “CO2 emitters” – have not the slightest intention of curbing their emissions. It is for the West to do that, for creating “the problem”. Thus, just as he died, Strong’s dream is more than ever falling apart – thanks to those very countries his socialist vision was intended to help.
 
Paris climate negotiations won’t stop the planet burning
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/paris-climate-negotiations-won-t-stop-planet-burning-1543258788

The much-vaunted COP21 negotiations in Paris are, despite the claims of world leaders, dead on arrival.

Emissions reductions targets are not up for discussion. Those pledges are already on the table, having been put forward voluntarily by each country.

Government negotiators in Paris are instead looking at banal details of how and when countries should commit to improving their voluntary pledges, and ensuring "transparency" and "accountability".

Catastrophe?

But current emissions pledges already guarantee disaster.
 
Scientists enlist the big gun to get climate action: Faith
Scientists enlist the big gun to get climate action: Faith

PARIS (AP) — The cold hard numbers of science haven't spurred the world to curb runaway global warming. So as climate negotiators struggle in Paris, some scientists who appealed to the rational brain are enlisting what many would consider a higher power: the majesty of faith.

It's not God versus science, but followers of God and science together trying to save humanity and the planet, they say.
 
Scientists just undermined a key idea behind the Paris climate talks
Scientists just undermined a key idea behind the Paris climate talks

In two separate new studies just out in the journals Nature Geoscience and Nature Climate Change, scientists challenge both the 2 degree Celsius target — which was originally proposed back in the 1990s, and has since become nearly omnipresent in the climate discussion — and also one of the key tools that may be needed to get us there: so-called “negative emissions” technologies, which would remove carbon dioxide directly from the air.

The first study, by Reto Knutti of ETH Zurich and several colleagues, argues that “no scientific assessment has clearly justified or defended the 2° C target as a safe level of warming, and indeed, this is not a problem that science alone can address.” The 2° C target is a value judgment, the authors say, but they also list many very severe impacts of climate change that could be expected at 2° C or even below it.

...

The second new study, a large overview of negative emissions technologies penned by no less than 40 separate authors, finds that reliance upon them in the future to pull a lot of carbon out of the air (because we can’t cut our emissions more in the present) is “extremely risky.”
 
Smith P, Davis SJ, Creutzig F, et al. Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions. Nature Clim Change;advance online publication. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2870.html

To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 [deg]C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.


Jackson RB, Canadell JG, Le Quere C, et al. Reaching peak emissions. Nature Clim Change;advance online publication. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2892.html

Rapid growth in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ceased in the past two years, despite continued economic growth. Decreased coal use in China was largely responsible, coupled with slower global growth in petroleum and faster growth in renewables.
 
Thompson R. Climate sensitivity. Earth and Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. Climate sensitivity

Earth has been habitable through most of its history, but the anthropogenically mediated greenhouse effect, if sufficiently strong, can threaten Earth's long-standing equability. This paper's main aim is to determine the strength of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect (the climate sensitivity) from observational data and basic physics alone, without recourse to the parameterisations of earth-system models and their inevitable uncertainties. A key finding is that the sensitivity can be constrained by harmonising historical records of land and ocean temperatures with observations of potential climate-change drivers in a non-steady state, energy-balance equation via a least-squares optimisation. The global temperature increase, for a CO2 doubling, is found to lie (95 % confidence limits) between 3.0oC and 6.3oC, with a best estimate of +4oC. Under a business-as-usual scenario, which assumes that there will be no significant change in people's attitudes and priorities, Earth's surface temperature is forecast to rise by 7.9oC over the land, and by 3.6oC over the oceans, by the year 2100. Global temperature rise has slowed in the last decade, leading some to question climate predictions of substantial 21st-Century warming. A formal runs test, however, shows that the recent slowdown is part of the normal behaviour of the climate system.
 
Senate Republicans Ran a Really Weird Hearing on Climate Change
http://www.wired.com/2015/12/senate-gopers-ran-a-really-weird-hearing-on-climate-change/

YOU ARE ENTERING the world of another dimension—a dimension of sight (look at the people who don’t like scientists), of sound (people talking a lot), and of mind (well, maybe not so much). There’s the signpost for the Dirksen Senate Office Building up ahead. Your next stop: Senator Ted Cruz’s hearing on climate change earlier this week, which felt very much like something from the Twilight Zone.

Cruz himself is an intense guy in a dark suit—but that’s where the evident similarities between the senator and Twilight Zone creator Rod Serling end. Serling was an abject, romantic humanist. Cruz’s hearing was more like one of the side-shifted worlds Twilight Zone stories always seemed to happen in, at the crossroads of science and superstition, fear and knowledge.

Stranger than the choreography and theatrics (police tossed a protester, Cruz spent plenty of time denouncing a witness who either didn’t show up or wasn’t invited, and a Canadian blogger barely contained his anger during a back-and-forth with Democratic Senator Ed Markey) was the topsy-turvy line of questioning pursued by Cruz, a Texas Republican and chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Science, Technology and Competitiveness.

He opened the hearing—“Data or Dogma: Promoting Open Inquiry in the Debate over the Magnitude of Human Impact on Earth’s Climate”—with a tale of a 2013 expedition by New Zealand scientists. They were investigating Antarctic sea ice—”ice that the climate-industrial complex had assured us was vanishing,” Cruz said. “It was there to document how the ice was vanishing in the Antarctic, but the ship became stuck. It had run into an inconvenient truth, as Al Gore might put it. Facts matter, science matters, data matters.”

So OK. To bolster that us-versus-them narrative, Cruz invited scientists who believe they are being persecuted (or denied government funding)—just like Galileo was by the Catholic Church, they kept saying.

The other side of the aisle responded that these scientists aren’t being funded because their research and ideas don’t measure up to peer-review standards—or are just plain wrong.

Audience, let’s meet our players.

...
 
Scientists discuss the 1.5C limit to global temperature rise
Scientists discuss the 1.5C limit to global temperature rise - Carbon Brief

One of the major talking points during the negotiations at COP21 in Paris has been whether the international community should aim to limit global temperature rise to the internationally accepted 2C above pre-industrial levels, or a more stringent target of 1.5C.

The draft agreement text published last Saturday gave two options: “below 1.5C” or “well-below 2C”. The updated text issued on Wednesday afternoon added “below 2C” as a third option.

With global temperatures rise set to pass the 1C mark this year, is a 1.5C limit feasible? What would achieving it mean in practice? And how would a 1.5C world compare to a 2C one? Carbon Brief asked scientists here in Paris for their thoughts.
 
Climate Denial's Ugly Side: Scientists' Hate Mail
Climate Denial's Ugly Side: Scientists' Hate Mail

As delegates from 195 countries work diligently in Paris to hash out an international deal to tackle climate change, their work relies on the huge consensus of climate science that shows the world is headed for a dangerous future if greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed. But back home in the United States, historically the biggest carbon emitter of all, climate science gets a much rockier reception. In fact, climate scientists find themselves and their work regularly under attack.

Not only are there organized efforts like Lamar Smith's House science committee issuing subpoenas and striving to discredit scientists, but harassment and hate mail arrives every day via the Internet. Their work has found itself in the crosshairs of a political ideology that has an ugly side.
 
ADOPTION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf


James Hansen, father of climate change awareness, calls Paris talks 'a fraud'
James Hansen, father of climate change awareness, calls Paris talks 'a fraud'

Mere mention of the Paris climate talks is enough to make James Hansen grumpy. The former Nasa scientist, considered the father of global awareness of climate change, is a soft-spoken, almost diffident Iowan. But when he talks about the gathering of nearly 200 nations, his demeanor changes.

“It’s a fraud really, a fake,” he says, rubbing his head. “It’s just bullshit for them to say: ‘We’ll have a 2C warming target and then try to do a little better every five years.’ It’s just worthless words. There is no action, just promises. As long as fossil fuels appear to be the cheapest fuels out there, they will be continued to be burned.”
 
COP 21: What It Does—And Doesn't—Accomplish
COP 21: What It Does—And Doesn't—Accomplish


The agreement will NOT hold warming to 2 C, or even 2.7 degrees C.

Even assuming every country meets its pledges, if countries do not agree to greater cuts after those being made in Paris, the world will likely warm by 3.5 C or more—perhaps as high as 4.6 C, which is more than 8 degrees F.

This is nothing less than catastrophic.

But even this devastating outcome ignores a mighty big elephant in the global living room.

Scientists know that we are at or near thresholds which have/will trigger feedbacks that will cause even more warming. For example, just 3 of these known feedbacks, by themselves, would add about 2.5 C more warming on top of the 3.5 resulting from the Paris agreements, bringing total warming to 6 C or nearly 11 F. At this point, we’re really talking about a different planet, not simply a warmed up Earth.

And there are no fewer than 12 feedbacks that could amplify warming, so even this could be an understatement.

What COP 21 Accomplished: Probably the best thing to come out of the Meeting was the establishment of a framework in which the majority of the world came together and reached agreements to cut back on carbon, and both developed and developing nations recognized a shared responsibility to act.

Differentiation, which addresses how developed and developing nations share responsibility and costs for mitigating and adapting to climate change, remains a sticking point. But even here there’s been progress, in that both the developed and developing world recognized they must ultimately act together to meet this challenge. And India, the world’s fourth largest emitter, has indicated it would consider a cap to its emissions if it received financial support adequate to speed a transition to a no-carbon all renewable energy system.

So while there is much work to be done, this Agreement will provide a foundation to build on, and a framework for future progress.

What it did not: In terms of outcomes, there’s an enormous—and disastrous—gap between what was agreed to, and what was needed.

This gap is all the more dangerous in that the carbon budgets used to establish permissible emissions of GHGs have essentially—and all but surreptitiously—rewritten how much risk we are willing to impose on future generations.

The reason we’re doing it, is precisely because we failed to act in the past, and using lower margins of safety make it appear as though we have more time to act than we do. Suggesting that a 66% likelihood of actually meeting our goals is acceptable is a form of intergenerational terrorism at worst, an act of intergenerational immorality at best.

It’s as if we were looking into the eyes of our grandchildren and asking them to endure outlandish risks so that we might follow a slightly less disruptive path.

In essence, by playing with the margins of safety we are willing to accept, we are obscuring the urgency of acting now—right now—by increasing the risk we’re willing to pass on to our children and their children. This is inexcusable, and it is the greatest failure of the entire COP process.
 
Climate Accord Is a Healing Step, if Not a Cure
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/13/science/earth/climate-accord-is-a-healing-step-if-not-a-cure.html


Scientists who closely monitored the talks here said it was not the agreement that humanity really needed. By itself, it will not save the planet.

The great ice sheets remain imperiled, the oceans are still rising, forests and reefs are under stress, people are dying by tens of thousands in heat waves and floods, and the agriculture system that feeds seven billion human beings is still at risk.
 
The Paris agreement signals that deniers have lost the climate wars
The Paris agreement signals that deniers have lost the climate wars | Dana Nuccitelli

If we’re honest, the climate “debate” and science denial are not actually about science. Most who reject the consensus of 97% of climate experts do so because they prefer the status quo and object to the proposed solutions. This was made clear by a 2014 study showing that Republicans are far more likely to reject the science when told the solution involves government regulation than when they’re told free market solutions are available. It’s ideology, not science.
 
The Siege of Miami - In the Miami area, the daily high-water mark has been rising almost an inch a year.
Miami Underwater


According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sea levels could rise by more than three feet by the end of this century.

The United States Army Corps of Engineers projects that they could rise by as much as five feet; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts up to six and a half feet.

According to Hal Wanless, the chairman of the University of Miami’s geological-sciences department, all these projections are probably low. In his office, Wanless keeps a jar of meltwater he collected from the Greenland ice sheet. He likes to point out that there is plenty more where that came from.
 
The Paris Climate Agreement Would Be A Great First Step If This Were 1995
The Paris Climate Agreement Would Be A Great First Step If This Were 1995

As ambitious as this sounds, the agreement contains no binding rules on how to meet this (or any) temperature goal.1 All greenhouse gas emission targets are voluntary and left to individual countries to determine. This choose-your-own-emissions strategy skirts the political problems that disarmed the Kyoto Protocol, but it may have also rendered the Paris agreement too weak to prevent widespread climate catastrophe. The pledges submitted thus far leave a scary gap between what’s needed and what countries aspire to do.
 

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