Climate Change

[Michael Scally MD]

Kortsch S, Primicerio R, Beuchel F, et al. Climate-driven regime shifts in Arctic marine benthos. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/08/09/1207509109.full.pdf

Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980-2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

The Arctic Ice Crisis
Greenland’s glaciers are melting far faster than scientists expected
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-arctic-ice-crisis-20120816

There's no place on Earth that's changing faster – and no place where that change matters more – than Greenland. Late last month, NASA reported that ice all across the vast glacial interior of the world's largest island was melting – a "freak event" that hadn't occurred for at least 150 years.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Box JE, Fettweis X, Stroeve JC, Tedesco M, Hall DK, Steffen K. Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers. The Cryosphere Discuss 2012;6(1):593-634. TC - Abstract - Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers

Greenland ice sheet mass loss has accelerated in the past decade responding to combined glacier discharge and surface melt water runoff increases. During summer, absorbed solar energy, modulated at the surface primarily by albedo, is the dominant factor governing surface melt variability in the ablation area. Using satellite observations of albedo and melt extent with calibrated regional climate model output, we determine the spatial dependence and quantitative impact of the ice sheet albedo feedback in twelve summer periods beginning in 2000. We find that while the albedo feedback is negative over 70 % of the ice sheet, concentrated in the accumulation area above 1500 m, positive feedback prevailing over the ablation area accounts for more than half of the overall increase in melting. Over the ablation area, year 2010 and 2011 absorbed solar energy was more than twice as large as in years 2000–2004. Anomalous anticyclonic circulation, associated with a persistent summer North Atlantic Oscillation extreme since 2007 enabled three amplifying mechanisms to maximize the albedo feedback: (1) increased warm (south) air advection along the western ice sheet increased surface sensible heating that in turn enhanced snow grain metamorphic rates, further reducing albedo; (2) increased surface downward solar irradiance, leading to more surface heating and further albedo reduction; and (3) reduced snowfall rates sustained low albedo, maximizing surface solar heating, progressively lowering albedo over multiple years. The summer net radiation for the high elevation accumulation area approached positive values during this period.


Franco B, Fettweis X, Erpicum M. Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt, developed using the regional climate MAR model. The Cryosphere Discuss 2012;6(4):2265-303. TCD - Abstract - Future projections of the Greenland ice sheet energy balance driving the surface melt, developed using the regional climate MAR model

In this study, 25 km-simulations are performed over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, using the regional climate model MAR forced by four RCP scenarios from two CMIP5 global circulation models, in order to investigate the projected changes of the surface energy balance (SEB) components driving the surface melt. Analysis of 2000–2100 melt anomalies compared to melt results over 1980–1999 reveals an exponential relationship of the GrIS surface melt rate simulated by MAR to the near-surface temperature (TAS) anomalies, mainly due to the surface albedo positive feedback associated with the extension of bare ice areas in summer. On the GrIS margins, the future melt anomalies are rather driven by stronger sensible heat fluxes, induced by enhanced warm air advections over the ice sheet. Over the central dry snow zone, the increase of melt surpasses the negative feedback from heavier snowfall inducing therefore a decrease of the summer surface albedo even at the top of the ice sheet. In addition to the incoming longwave flux increase associated to the atmosphere warming, MAR projects an increase of the cloud cover decreasing the ratio of the incoming shortwave versus longwave radiation and dampening the albedo feedback. However, it should be noted that this trend in the cloud cover is contrary to that simulated by ERA-INTERIM-forced MAR over current climate, where the observed melt increase since the 1990's seems rather to be a consequence of more anticyclonic atmospheric conditions. Finally, no significant change is projected in the length of the melt season. This timing highlights the importance of solar radiation in the melt SEB.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Breed GA, Stichter S, Crone EE. Climate-driven changes in northeastern US butterfly communities. Nature Clim Change;advance online publication. Climate-driven changes in northeastern US butterfly communities : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

Climate warming is expected to change the distribution and abundance of many species1, 2, 3. Range shifts have been detected in a number of European taxa for which long-term government-initiated or organized-survey data are available4, 5, 6, 7, 8. In North America, well-organized long-term data needed to document such shifts are much less common. Opportunistic observations made by citizen scientist groups may be an excellent alternative to systematic surveys9. From 1992 to 2010, 19,779 butterfly surveys were made by amateur naturalists in Massachusetts, a geographically small state located at the convergence of northern and southern bioclimatic zones in eastern North America. From these data, we estimated population trends for nearly all butterfly species (100 of 116 species present) using list-length analysis10, 11. Population trajectories indicate increases of many species near their northern range limits and declines in nearly all species (17 of 21) near their southern range limits. Certain life-history traits, especially overwintering stage, were strongly associated with declines. Our results suggest that a major, climate-induced shift of North American butterflies, characterized by northward expansions of warm-adapted and retreat of cold-adapted species, is underway.

 

[james2012]

This is just too sweet. Michael Mann running for cover

(Mann)ing Up | RedState. Emphasis mine. Given the damage this faux science has done to economies around the world I am just praying my ass off Mann takes the bait and sues. Oh, the sweetness of the discovery process. Of course, he won't, and his heavy handed tactics of threatening to sue now have a canned answer. Go ahead nitwit, make our day. Now let's go over that so-called study of yours shall we? [)]

There are certain oxymoronic clichés that get trotted out de tiempo a tiempo to tepid applause and politely forced laughter. Military Intelligence, honor among whores and rank among Civil Servants are an indicative subset. We can now add credibility among climate scientists to the burgeoning list. Dr. Michael Mann of Penn State University’s proud and illustrious faculty was made livid by the acerbic and satirical needling he received from Mark Steyn. So livid that he had his law firm Cozen O’Conner draft a letter threatening to sue NRO for defamation.

It seems that Dr. Mann demands that the Mark Steyn retract a recent blog entry of his entitled “Football and Hockey” and immediately apologize. He may afterwards expect the entire NRO staff to kiss his tree rings while kneeling devoutly in the snow of Happy Valley.

Steyn egregiously tells the truth about Mann as a professional and a human being and doesn’t shy away from quoting other authors who compare Dr. Mann with certain infamous people who are no longer fixtures among the bucolic campus grounds. Steyn goes inveighing below.

Michael Mann was the man behind the fraudulent climate-change “hockey-stick” graph, the very ringmaster of the tree-ring circus. And, when the East Anglia emails came out, Penn State felt obliged to “investigate” Professor Mann….Whether or not he’s “the Jerry Sandusky of climate change”, he remains the Michael Mann of climate change, in part because his “investigation” by a deeply corrupt administration was a joke.

The metaphor is a stretch. No data set, however roughly violated, can be emotionally scarred for life. I could certainly understand if Dr. Mann and Mr. Steyn won’t be exchanging hortatory greeting cards during the winter holidays. The lawsuit threat, however, is troglodytic thug behavior with which NRO deals with exceptionally well.

NRO had their people (Baker Hostetler) tell Dr. Mann’s people where exactly he can go sheath the hockey stick. They kindly advised him that their discovery process would involve an in depth technical review of his research. (if Dr. Mann persues the matter he and his research would be subjected to a very extensive discovery of materials…) Yet this wasn’t even the most delightful part of the communiqué.

I was personally partial to the section that cited Dr. Mann’s own accusations against Congressmen Issa and Sensenbrenner. These individuals were out to get climate science if Dr. Mann is to be believed. Once you’ve called elected officials inquisitors under the auspices of your 1st Amendment Rights, the standards by which something can be judged as legally defamatory become far more rigorous than the peer review Dr. Mann and his colleagues ever faced from the UN IPCC.

The icing atop the cake was when NRO’s legal squad cited Hustler Magazine, Inc. v. Falwell as a legal precedent by which a conservative media outlet could pretty much write anything it pleased about a liberal public figure. Once the courts have established “humorous parodies” that involve someone you ideologically don’t like having sex with their mother in an outhouse are coarse but acceptable, Jerry Sandusky jokes are pretty much sauce for the goose being ladled onto the gander. This a classic and condign case of a litigious lefty being hoist on his own petard.

In telling Dr. Mann to get lost, NRO Editor Rich Lowry provides a condign response to an slimy smear merchant who has never stopped for a moment in his efforts to defame his scientific and ideological opponents. Dr. Mann has gone far further than he deserved on gall, chutzpah and brazen dishonesty. If he can’t take a punch, he should exit the ring. As Rich Lowry so aptly put it – Get Lost!

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Mulvaney R, Abram NJ, Hindmarsh RCA, et al. Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history. Nature;advance online publication. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature11391.html

Rapid warming over the past 50?years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss1,2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica8, 9, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500?years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600?years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Arctic sea ice extent breaks 2007 record low
Arctic sea ice extent breaks 2007 record low | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

Arctic sea ice appears to have broken the 2007 record daily extent and is now the lowest in the satellite era. With two to three more weeks left in the melt season, sea ice continues to track below 2007 daily extents.

Please note that this is not an announcement of the sea ice minimum extent for 2012. NSIDC will release numbers for the 2012 daily minimum extent when it occurs. A full analysis of the melt season will be published in early October, once monthly data are available for September.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Naveen R, Lynch H, Forrest S, Mueller T, Polito M. First direct, site-wide penguin survey at Deception Island, Antarctica, suggests significant declines in breeding chinstrap penguins. Polar Biology 2012:1-10. Polar Biology, Online First™ - SpringerLink

Deception Island (62°57?S, 60°38?W) is one of the most frequently visited locations in Antarctica, prompting speculation that tourism may have a negative impact on the island’s breeding chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarctica). Discussions regarding appropriate management of Deception Island and its largest penguin colony at Baily Head have thus far operated in the absence of concrete information regarding the current size of the penguin population at Deception Island or long-term changes in abundance. In the first ever field census of individual penguin nests at Deception Island (December 2–14, 2011), we find 79,849 breeding pairs of chinstrap penguins, including 50,408 breeding pairs at Baily Head and 19,177 breeding pairs at Vapour Col. Our field census, combined with a simulation designed to capture uncertainty in an earlier population estimate by Shuford and Spear (Br Antarct Surv Bull 81:19–30, 1988), suggests a significant (>50 %) decline in the abundance of chinstraps breeding at Baily Head since 1986/1987. A comparative analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery for the 2002/2003 and the 2009/2010 seasons suggests a 39 % (95th percentile CI = 6–71 %) decline (from 85,473 ± 23,352 to 52,372 ± 14,309 breeding pairs) over that 7-year period and provides independent confirmation of population decline in the abundance of breeding chinstrap penguins at Baily Head. The decline in chinstrap penguins at Baily Head is consistent with declines in this species throughout the region, including sites that receive little or no tourism; as a consequence of regional environmental changes that currently represent the dominant influence on penguin dynamics, we cannot ascribe any direct link between chinstrap declines and tourism from this study.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Francis JA, Vavrus SJ. Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys Res Lett 2012;39(6):L06801. Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes

Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower-tropospheric temperatures and in 1000-to-500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north-south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNnIrIuNbeA]The Jet Stream [720p] - YouTube[/ame]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7m39yQrdhI]UD scientist sees Arctic ice loss firsthand. - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Research Reveals Contrasting Consequences of a Warmer Earth
Research reveals contrasting consequences of a warmer Earth

ScienceDaily (Sep. 3, 2012) — A new study, by scientists from the Universities of York, Glasgow and Leeds, involving analysis of fossil and geological records going back 540 million years, suggests that biodiversity on Earth generally increases as the planet warms.

But the research says that the increase in biodiversity depends on the evolution of new species over millions of years, and is normally accompanied by extinctions of existing species. The researchers suggest that present trends of increasing temperature are unlikely to boost global biodiversity in the short term because of the long timescales necessary for new forms to evolve. Instead, the speed of current change is expected to cause diversity loss.

Mayhew PJ, Bell MA, Benton TG, McGowan AJ. Biodiversity tracks temperature over time. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Biodiversity tracks temperature over time

The geographic distribution of life on Earth supports a general pattern of increase in biodiversity with increasing temperature. However, some previous analyses of the 540-million-year Phanerozoic fossil record found a contrary relationship, with paleodiversity declining when the planet warms. These contradictory findings are hard to reconcile theoretically. We analyze marine invertebrate biodiversity patterns for the Phanerozoic Eon while controlling for sampling effort. This control appears to reverse the temporal association between temperature and biodiversity, such that taxonomic richness increases, not decreases, with temperature. Increasing temperatures also predict extinction and origination rates, alongside other abiotic and biotic predictor variables. These results undermine previous reports of a negative biodiversity-temperature relationship through time, which we attribute to paleontological sampling biases. Our findings suggest a convergence of global scale macroevolutionary and macroecological patterns for the biodiversity-temperature relationship.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Lewandowsky S, Oberauer K, Gignac CE. (in press). NASA faked the moon landing—therefore (climate) science is a hoax: An anatomy of the motivated rejection of science. Psychological Science. http://websites.psychology.uwa.edu.au/labs/cogscience/documents/LskyetalPsychScienceinPressClimateConspiracy.pdf

Although nearly all domain experts agree that human CO2 emissions are altering the world's climate, segments of the public remain unconvinced by the scientific evidence. Internet blogs have become a vocal platform for climate denial, and bloggers have taken a prominent and influential role in questioning climate science. We report a survey (N > 1100) of climate blog users to identify the variables underlying acceptance and rejection of climate science. Paralleling previous work, we find that endorsement of a laissez-faire conception of free-market economics predicts rejection of climate science (r ~ :80 between latent constructs). Endorsement of the free market also predicted the rejection of other established scientific findings, such as the facts that HIV causes AIDS and that smoking causes lung cancer. We additionally show that endorsement of a cluster of conspiracy theories (e.g., that the CIA killed Martin-Luther King or that NASA faked the moon landing) predicts rejection of climate science as well as the rejection of other scientific findings, above and beyond endorsement of laissez-faire free markets. This provides empirical confirmation of previous suggestions that conspiracist ideation contributes to the rejection of science. Acceptance of science, by contrast, was strongly associated with the perception of a consensus among scientists.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Schmidt NM, Ims RA, Hoye TT, et al. Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988-2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZFupZp4ViI]Unlocking Ice Sheets' Mysteries - YouTube[/ame]


Young NsE, Briner JP, Rood DH, Finkel RC. Glacier Extent During the Younger Dryas and 8.2-ka Event on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada. Science 2012;337(6100):1330-3. Glacier Extent During the Younger Dryas and 8.2-ka Event on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

Greenland ice cores reveal that mean annual temperatures during the Younger Dryas (YD) cold interval—about 12.9 to 11.7 thousand years ago (ka)—and the ~150-year-long cold reversal that occurred 8.2 thousand years ago were ~15° and 3° to 4°C colder than today, respectively. Reconstructing ice-sheet response to these climate perturbations can help evaluate ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change. Here, we report the widespread advance of Laurentide Ice Sheet outlet glaciers and independent mountain glaciers on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada, in response to the 8.2-ka event and show that mountain glaciers during the 8.2-ka event were larger than their YD predecessors. In contrast to the wintertime bias of YD cooling, we suggest that cooling during the 8.2-ka event was more evenly distributed across the seasons.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Ice loss shifts Arctic cycles
Record shrinkage confounds models and portends atmospheric and ecological change.
Ice loss shifts Arctic cycles : Nature News & Comment

Before indifferent satellite eyes, the top of the world is undergoing a transformation. The Arctic ice pack, a primary indicator of climate change, has shrunk in recent weeks to an extent that no computer model and few scientists had thought possible.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Arctic sea ice extent settles at record seasonal minimum
Arctic sea ice extent settles at record seasonal minimum | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

On September 16, Arctic sea ice appeared to have reached its minimum extent for the year of 3.41 million square kilometers (1.32 million square miles). This is the lowest seasonal minimum extent in the satellite record since 1979 and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent. The sea ice extent will now begin its seasonal increase through autumn and winter.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Chasing Ice
Chasing Ice - Movie Trailers - iTunes

Acclaimed environmental photographer James Balog was once a skeptic about climate change. But through his Extreme Ice Survey, he discovers undeniable evidence of our changing planet. In Chasing Ice, Balog deploys revolutionary time-lapse cameras to capture a multi-year record of the world's changing glaciers. His hauntingly beautiful videos compress years into seconds and capture ancient mountains of ice in motion as they disappear at a breathtaking rate. Traveling with a team of young adventurers across the brutal Arctic, Balog risks his career and his well-being in pursuit of the biggest story facing humanity. As the debate polarizes America, and the intensity of natural disasters ramps up globally, Chasing Ice depicts a heroic photojournalist on a mission to deliver fragile hope to our carbon-powered planet.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Climate Change Creates a Storm
PBS | Ombudsman | Climate Change Creates a Storm

 

[Michael Scally MD]

What Will Ice-Free Arctic Summers Bring?
This summer's record melt suggests the Arctic may lose its ice cap seasonally sooner than expected. What impacts can we expect?
What Will Ice-Free Arctic Summers Bring?: Scientific American

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Hamilton LC. Did the Arctic ice recover? Demographics of true and false climate facts. Weather, Climate, and Society. An Error Occurred Setting Your User Cookie / http://pubpages.unh.edu/~lch/Hamilton_Arctic_ice7e.pdf

Beliefs about climate change divide the U.S. public along party lines more distinctly than hot social issues. Research finds that better educated or informed respondents are more likely to align with their parties on climate change. This information-elite polarization resembles a process of biased assimilation first described in psychological experiments. In nonexperimental settings, college graduates could be prone to biased assimilation if they more effectively acquire information that supports their beliefs. Recent national and statewide survey data show response patterns consistent with biased assimilation (and biased guessing) contributing to the correlation observed between climate beliefs and knowledge. The survey knowledge questions involve key, uncontroversial observations such as whether the area of late-summer Arctic sea ice has declined, increased, or declined and then recovered to what it was 30 years ago. Correct answers are predicted by education, and some wrong answers (e.g., more ice) have predictors that suggest lack of knowledge. Other wrong answers (e.g., ice recovered) are predicted by political and belief factors instead. Response patterns suggest causality in both directions: science information affecting climate beliefs, but also beliefs affecting the assimilation of science information.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaKqhRTqSlg]The Arctic's Record Breaking Ice Melt - YouTube[/ame]

The sea ice in the Arctic Ocean dropped below the previous all-time record set in 2007. This year also marks the first time that there has been less than 4 million square kilometers (1.54 million square miles) of sea ice since satellite observations began in 1979. This animation shows the 2012 time-series of ice extent using sea ice concentration data from the DMSP SSMI/S satellite sensor. The black area represents the daily average (median) sea ice extent over the 1979-2000 time period. Layered over top of that are the daily satellite measurements from January 1 -- September 14, 2012. A rapid melt begins in July, whereby the 2012 ice extents fall far below the historical average. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)) will confirm the final minimum ice extent data and area once the melt stabilizes, usually in mid-September.