I’d argue risk of known vs. unknown. Phase 3 trials can include up to a few thousand participants over a longer timespan and are designed for determination of longer term side effects or less frequent adverse reactions. Phase 1 trials have <100 participants and Phase 2 only have a few hundred tops. So a very small subset of the population.
It could very well be as safe or safer than current GLP-1s, but conversely could also have additional risks associated with it.
Fair enough. Though practically, albeit with my layman's understanding of the process, I'd argue that safety and AEs, at least for the "big" concerns we might have, are pretty well defined/determined in 1 and 2. While every phase is going to look at the safety profile, phase 3 is focused on showing the candidate's superiority to others already in the market and defining the dosing/protocol to be proposed when looking for FDA approval. But to your exact point, more lab rats and more time is always better.
I expect that the Chinese labs have more-or-less the same thought process, it seems that they waited until the successful end of phase 2 before they started their manufacturing and marketing.
To
@DonLigero's point, I've taken plenty of compounds that washed out before phase 3, not due to safety, but a lack of a perceived market by the patent holder.
Basically, while I agree that there's a non-zero increased risk in using it before completion of phase 3, compared to the risk of injecting China-sourced compounds received in unlabeled vials is the much bigger concern -- one that I've rationalized away long ago.
I'm just going to consider myself to be a part of the phase 3 Chinese UGL cohort -- I'll be sure to pass my findings on to LLY
It's funny for me that I won't consider Reta until phase 3 trials are done, but I have been researching several peptides that have ZERO phase 3 trials. I am guessing if tirezepatide were not working so well for me I might be considering. In the interim, the popularity of reta seems to be driving the tirz prices down.
Your second is probably the best point against ret -- tirz is working just fine for me. But when I see something new and shiny I get distracted and have to have it. May be time to talk to my doc about upping my Adderall dose, but I don't think that I'll use this anecdote as my justification