Can touching a barbell in the gym get you sick with the coronavirus?

[Millard]

Another point is if you are going to post (especially scientific data where you are trying to help the community) then you should have enough decency to respond to legit questions and concerns. That is what forums are for, NOT drive by copy, cut and paste. I can find all of that on the interwebs myself.

Dr. Scally "should have enough decency to respond to legit questions and concerns"?! Entitled much?

I would like Dr. Scally to spoonfeed me too and explain, comment and editorialize on all the research studies he shares. But if he only has the time to lead me to water, then I will take what I can get. He has made invaluable contributions to this forum. I am disturbed that so many people fail to recognize this.

 

[Mac11wildcat]

I agree with you on the first part. I'd love for Dr. Scally to provide his insight and commentary more frequently on the studies he shares. To be honest, I'd like for him to offer it on every single study he posts. But really, who am I kidding? I would like him to spoon feed the information in terms that make it accessible to us all. But that's just being a little greedy when he does so much already.

However, I couldn't disagree more with you on the second part. That is, that "anyone can post studies" like Dr. Scally does. No. They couldn't. And even if they could, they don't. To have a medical expert perform daily literature reviews to identify and share new and current research relevant to anabolic steroid users is incredibly valuable. For the medical expert to do this practically every day for the past 5-10 years is truly something special.

My point was it’s relatively easy to post a study, mainly in reference to this specific thread. The fact that it comes without interpretation and just bold text around a sentence of the summary/conclusion is my gripe...

If my characterization is incorrect then I’m just too new. Maybe it’s only this thread that’s a constant post with no words attached.

 

[Eman]

My point was it’s relatively easy to post a study, mainly in reference to this specific thread. The fact that it comes without interpretation and just bold text around a sentence of the summary/conclusion is my gripe...

If my characterization is incorrect then I’m just too new.

The real point is that no one else really does this. Additionally, we're not talking about random posts of studies that the vast majority will put up... He's posted studies on a topic and then updated the thread with new studies on the same topic over the course of YEARS concerning a wide array of areas. No one else comes close to putting that kind of content on the board. Every time I've asked for clarification I've gotten a response...

Honestly, no one seemed to really care about anything Scally did or didn't do until he started posting political content. I see so much pissing and moaning about Scally's political beliefs it makes me sick to my stomach. How Millard reads some of the drivel that gets posted about Scally on this forum and doesn't go on a fucking banning frenzy I'll never know... A level of self control that I certainly don't share with him.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

The taverns are fair full of gadabouts making merry this eve. And though I may press my face against the window like an urchin at a confectioner’s, I am tempted not by the sweetmeats within. A dram in exchange for the pox is an ill bargain indeed.

 

[Mac11wildcat]

The real point is that no one else really does this. Additionally, we're not talking about random posts of studies that the vast majority will put up... He's posted studies on a topic and then updated the thread with new studies on the same topic over the course of YEARS concerning a wide array of areas. No one else comes close to putting that kind of content on the board. Every time I've asked for clarification I've gotten a response...

Honestly, no one seemed to really care about anything Scally did or didn't do until he started posting political content. I see so much pissing and moaning about Scally's political beliefs it makes me sick to my stomach. How Millard reads some of the drivel that gets posted about Scally on this forum and doesn't go on a fucking banning frenzy I'll never know... A level of self control that I certainly don't share with him.

That I obviously cannot find fault in. I’m not doubting his contribution to the board. This specific contribution is clearly divisive and i think that’s understandable. The same trolls super upset about the way he responds to them are probably the same people upset enough to insult him over this thread.

 

[Eman]

That I obviously cannot find fault in. I’m not doubting his contribution to the board. This specific contribution is clearly divisive and i think that’s understandable. The same trolls super upset about the way he responds to them are probably the same people upset enough to insult him over this thread.

I didn't really disagree with anything you said btw, I have a stream of consciousness writing style so I try not to make anything seem too directed at who I'm replying to unless that's my intent.

I guess it got a bit divisive but I don't really see any reason why it should have been. Tribalism is just par for the course now, no one can respect each other's opinion because the majority have picked themselves up and moved as far to their respective right and left corners as they can possibly get, herded by all sides of the media and the president... Then they throw insults at each other. Scally really hasn't given into that anywhere, but you can see the insults thrown at him almost daily - I think that says more about them than it does about him.

 

[Dr JIM]

One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they're preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds
One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they're preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds

· Hospitals are confronting the rising threat of the novel coronavirus in the US.

· The spread of the coronavirus outbreak in the US could push the healthcare system to its limits.

· In a February webinar presentation hosted by the American Hospital Association, an expert laid out "best guess" estimates about how many Americans could be impacted.

· He projected that there could be as many as 96 million cases in the US, 4.8 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 deaths associated with the novel coronavirus.

Obviously their models were WRONG!

 

[Mac11wildcat]

Oh boy.

Two Doctors in the thread.

First blood, or to the death?

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention making the rounds this week on the internet are clarifying what we know about the transmission of the coronavirus.

The virus does not spread easily via contaminated surfaces, according to the C.D.C. For those who were worried about wiping down grocery bags or disinfecting mailed packages, the news headlines highlighting this guidance in recent days might have brought some relief.

But this information is not new: The C.D.C. has been using similar language for months. If anything, the headlines have pulled into sharper focus what we already know about the virus.

The coronavirus is thought to spread mainly from one person to another, typically through droplets when an infected person sneezes, coughs or talks at close range — even if that person is not showing symptoms.

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Obviously their models were WRONG!

Clearly ... Even for ~3 months ago. Not sure if it was a model or someone's speculation.

Best fit model at this time ... COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

This appears to be the most commonly quoted for data ... COVID-19 Map

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

 

[Michael Scally MD]

Models predicting the potential spread of the COVID-19 pandemic have become a fixture of American life. Yet each model tells a different story about the devastation to come, making it hard to know which one is “right.” But COVID-19 models aren’t made to be unquestioned oracles. They’re not trying to tell us one precise future, but rather the range of possibilities given the facts on the ground.

One of their more sober tasks is predicting the number of Americans who will die due to COVID-19. FiveThirtyEight — with the help of data compiled by the COVID-19 Forecast Hub — has assembled nine models published by scientists to illustrate possible trajectories of the pandemic’s death toll. In doing so, we hope to make them more accessible, as well as highlight how the assumptions underlying the models can lead to vastly different estimates. Here are the models’ U.S. fatality projections for the coming weeks.

Forecasts like these are useful because they help us understand the most likely outcomes as well as best- and worst-case possibilities — and they can help policymakers make decisions that can lead us closer to those best-case outcomes.

And looking at multiple models is better than looking at just one because it's difficult to know which model will match reality the closest. Even when models disagree, understanding why they are different can give us valuable insight.

 

[Dr JIM]

Clearly ... Even for ~3 months ago. Not sure if it was a model or someone's speculation.

Best fit model at this time ... COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning

This appears to be the most commonly quoted for data ... COVID-19 Map

Speculation, model and uneducated guesswork has permeated the media. And while COVID-19 droplet spread is well established (no surprise) other forms of transmission such as aerosolization are very difficult to quantify objectively especially with respect to contagion risk.

What is KNOWN
- symptomatic droplet spread rather than "asymptomatic" disease IS by far the primary mode of COVID-19 transmission.

- although a number of inanimate objects (cell phones, purses, floors , walls chairs etc) HAVE tested positive, almost all of the studies involved health care facilities who were evaluating or processing a large number of sick COVID-19 patients, such as New York.

- Bottom line - the relative risk of acquiring COVID-19 is highly dependent upon its prevalence in "your" community.

JIM

 

[Dr JIM]

Unfortunately RDV failed to have a statistically significant impact on mortality, but that may change with further study.

 

[Dr JIM]

Should Gyms and other sporting venues be opened ?

Thats a vexing problem because of the close quarters as ONE minimally symptomatic gent/gal may transmit the virus to many others.

Consequently unless those with underlying medical problems avoid these facilities, which is unlikely to happen, the presumptive risk posed by yelling, panting, sweating, particle moving attendees is to great and for those reasons Fitness facilities and/or sporting events will likely be the last to open.

JIM

 

[Dr JIM]

The problem with much of the data, the testing being conducted and/or it's reliablity (antibody vs PCR) do not necessarily correlate with hospital utilization -- and the latter dictates the magnitude and/or necessity of our response/interdiction to any pandemic.

I mean why even test those less than 40 wo risk factors or symptoms if we know (and we do esp with existing mitigation practices) these folk pose such a small risk of community transmission ----- bc epidemiologists want this relatively meaningless data for their silly models --- that why!

I was involved in surveillance testing in June. We conducted 2317 PCR assays with TWO positive results. Both had mild symptoms and were monitored at home in isolation and did fine. However bc one failed to remain isolated from others the disease was transmitted to her Grandparents one of whom died.

Our testing efforts must first focus on; unrelenting contact tracing, those at risk for COVID-19 related hospitalization, and the detection/isolation of symptomatic/ "minimally symptomatic" disease.


JIM

 

[Dr JIM]

The facts are in spite of existing mitigation strategies COVID-19 is NOT going to depart planet earth in the absence of a vaccine.

So how does testing benefit you, me or anyone else unless its intent is to diminish death and or disease related disability ?

We've been here before and a closer look at H1N1 testing for the sake of epidemiolocal data speaks volumes about what I'm referring to. In this instance clinicians had 72 hours to treat a positive result with a neurmimidase inhibitor such as Tamiflu but therapy rarely changed the course of N1H1 ---- and COVID-19 is really no different in spite of the limited access to Remdesivir.

So the reality is pending the arrival of a vaccine, testing or no testing we must learn to live with this virus like every other infectious disease before it.

Best to you all
JIM

 

[Dr JIM]

You are right. you might want to leave politics out of it. It just doesn't look good especially with the hate that politics has evolved nowadays.

Agreed